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I don’t give a toss what guesstimate figure the Post or Timeform or the BHA or anyone else decides to put to it.
OK, end of conversation then. Clearly only your opinion matters to you. Good luck.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
its quite obvious to see top notch was below his best so you can definitely put a line through that run, frodon definitely ran the best he could on ground that wasnt quite soft enough to show his best
Most of the people singing WP praises here also called for cue card to be retired as he was finished, now you believe at his age hes just ran equal to his best? Im not saying he hasnt, im just pointing out how can we go from one extreme to another? The likelyhood of that is slim at best.
We will know next time WP runs, we would definitely know more if he ran at cheltenham, ill be wary of the form until then.
Like i said, was a great race for more reasons than just the winner, hes a top prospect, but about the best chaser in training, really? Come on.
i have no problem at all taking on board opinions of those who work with horses day in day out rather than sit behind a spreadsheet. The problem with too many punters is that they expect the trainers and jockeys to simply provide them with a steady stream of winners rather than sensibly weighing up an opinion. And when a trainer is wide of the mark they hang onto the greivance for decades. I saw some prat whining about Cenkos online the other day ignoring the steady and pretty decent stream of information that Nichols has provided in the years since
I too often think that an overreliance on the numbers distances punters from the actual racing. ive seen so much crap suggesting that X trainer knows nothing compared to some weirdo sitting in a smelly bedsit fiddling around on his battered grimey laptop
James knight was a steady contributor to this forum a few years back and as shrewd as they come.
RPRs are best to take with a pinch of salt. They are ok for judging a horse on a one-off performance, but as we have seen with BDM and now Frodon, they are not altogether consistent. Timeform and the Handicapper, aren’t so quick to wave the white flag and say we have found the worlds best ever. Frodon’s run at Cheltenham was a great individual performance no doubt, but on the superb RPRs he’d have won last years Ryanair, and only just been touched off by Vautour the year before. Albeit, the conditions would have differed. The problem i have with using RPR as a source to judge horses level-wise is, the best horses can consistently run close to their best regardless of conditions. Can BDM or Frodon? No. I would prefer to base Frodon on his last say 10 runs + that means he’s probably going to be dropped a few poounds after the weekend?
As for Top Notch, he was clearly below his normal self, by some way. I have noticed some are very quick to say CC is back to his best after this run, but then go on to say that Top Notch was just a little below his best, to fit their views
Top Notch has looked an improving horse this season and the last. He was last season for a lot of the time underestimated(by me as well)..but this year he has cracked on with things until Saturday. I can’t see any reasons given for the run, but i would say he’s been a fair whack below par. Hopefully, he will bounce back this spring.Waiting Patiently, for all he was superb will neeed to prove himself on spring ground, which to me is not set in stone. People will rave about him up until d-day (if he goes there, might not) but if he bombs out a bit like BDM does on spring ground, he will start to be seen in a truer light. Very good on his day, not one of the best. I hope he can run to a similar level on spring ground. I would however, have my doubts about how much he had left in the tank at the finish on Saturday.
Cue Card is the horse that makes it difficult to judge the form by, people want to believe he was right up to his best on Saturday so we have a new superstar in WP, though the chances are he wasn’t.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Comparing the time with the 3 mile handicap chase, any lofty ratings would seem ambitious and possibly misplaced. High 160s but nothing extraordinary
How much the winner had in reserve is the question.
I have virtually no interest in Master Ratings but it is fascinating to try to rate individual performances and use them as part of the process of predicting how each horse will run at the set of conditions that present themselves in an upcoming race.
The next time Bristol De Mai runs at 3m on Heavy at Haydock I expect him to reproduce the 184 or whatever it was.
It will probably have to be Soft for Waiting Patiently to run at Cheltenham, if so I’ll give him the benefit he’ll handle the course and expect 181. If they run him there on Good-ish I’d be vary wary he’d produce that.
I don’t expect Cue Card to reproduce 178 in the GC because I can’t see a 12-y-o being able to put in the amount of effort he did on Saturday again within the space of 3 1/2 weeks.
Frodon is out of handicaps now. When will he next get Heavy in a 2m 5f conditions race to reproduce 173?
Why is it that some horses are not “proven” until they run on good ground and yet others get a pass for not performing on soft or heavy?
And why cant some just watch the way Cue Card ran rather than claiming that every runner behind him was clearly off their game? He obviously jumped and travelled far better than we have seen for some time. i cannot believe that anyone can see that as anything other than a powerful performance brilliantly intimidating lesser performers
oh the old boy had me jumping up and down at the TV on Saturday, looked back to really enjoying himself and jumped really, really well,, just beaten by a very good improving younger horse.
Gold cup for me with him,, give him another chance at it,, outwith Might Bite I think lot of much and a muchness in the gold cup, Ryanair with Un De Sceuax in it they could cut each others throats up front
Gold cup probably wont win it, but place possibilities and 33/1 available more than fair
But god if he could win it
we can but dreamI think I want Cue Card to win the GC as much for Paddy as the horse; I don’t think any other horse in recent years has deserved a GC win more.
@Clive–It was a fantastic race and performance. The horse is a tool, but im reading some saying hes elevated himself to Altior level. Altior does it on any ground, and the best horses do it on any ground. That’s my point, consistency. Bristol De Mai, might well be superb on Heavy, but can he do it on good? Likewise, a horse like Top Notch, can he do it at the top level on Heavy?
it just so happens, the main “festivals” are in spring and thus a greater focus and desire is for the horse that can run on better ground.
The part on Cue Card is purely opinions, and to be honest i can see why people are saying it. If you want to believe Cue Card was at his pure best, go for it.
Superb race, but is it wrong to critically assess the race afterwards? Part of assessing a race in my opinion is looking at every horse.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!What are the Racing Post and other ratings compilers do with Yala Enki now?
I notice that the Racing Post are taking their time with his new mark.
Yala Enki went out there officially rated 146 and has beaten the 161 rated Blaklion 54 lengths. On Racing Post Ratings they were rated 157 and 169 respectively. It was 74 lengths further back to the third.
In an amazing coincidence, it was Haydock and Heavy ground again.
If the Racing Post is going to use the Bristol De Mai logic to remain consistent, they now have to give Yala Enki a ridiculous rating as well.
If Blaklion had beaten Mysteree 74 lengths in first and second places I am sure we would be seeing him evens for the Grand National and going viral with his new 200+ rating.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
“OK, end of conversation then. Clearly only your opinion matters to you.”
Not quite right. The opinions of good judges matter to me.
I dont think anyone is saying CC was at his absolute best but he could have been close
Other than that, fair enough except for the expression “a tool” or even worse, “a machine”.
In my opinion, and it is purely opinion, whether Cue Card ran to his best remains to be seen. He was beaten by a better horse on the day who was held up off the pace. Personally, as good as a showing as it was, I would have preferred to see Cue Card held up also, as he would have come there swinging off the bridle as well, like he has so many times before. He was up with what I can tell was a pretty brisk pace and did IMO extraordinarily well to hold his position, go on, and put all bar Waiting Patiently to the sword. Whatever rating or whether he is as good doesn’t matter, I think different tactics would have seen a different outcome. If he goes Ryanair I’d be afraid they will employ the same tactics as when he won it, for me he is now better as a hold up horse who swings through his races, and that’s his best tool these days. Gold Cup….who knows, he could be good for a place, but it’s not been his luckiest race….whatever he goes for, I hope for racing in general he wins, but more importantly comes back sound. He has to be up there with the all time favourites….
Joe,
Some horses can’t “keep up with the hot pace” because they’re out of their comfort zone. However, Top Notch wasn’t out of his comfort zone. Has had write ups with discriptions of “tanked along” (including this season in the Christy 1965) where he’s gone faster per furlong than he did on Saturday. So in TN’s case imo it’s fair to say there must have been another reason for him never looking completely happy. Ditto Speredek, but in the latter’s case there are obvious reasons (distance, couldn’t dominate and ability). With Top Notch the explanation isn’t easy. Acted well before on both ground, distance, course and seemed equally effective whatever tactics used (although it’s some time since he’s been as far back). Henderson isn’t in the cracking form he was, but neither is he in poor form either – so can’t see that as a reason. Certainly wasn’t his form and am puzzled why? May be he didn’t travel as easily/below form due to having a bad day? That said, even at the top of his game TN wouldn’t have beaten Waiting Patiently. Winner put up a special performance. Cue Card wasn’t at his best, but you don’t get many 12 year olds putting up a performance as good as that.
Am glad Cue Card proved those who wanted him retired, wrong. As said after the Betfair:
he (Cue Card) could run to a level capable of winning a Grade 1 if tactics are changed. Surprised they employed virtually the same tactics as Wetherby, I’d like to see them give it one last go and lead from the front.
Tactics and trainer being in better form giving CC a better chance.
Value Is EverythingTop Notch’s record in Grade 1’s is a telling story. His sole win at the level came in last year’s Scilly Isles but away from that tepid affair his record is:
2nd in the Triumph to Peace And Co getting out battled, the same fate in that year’s Fighting Fifth before 5th in the Champion Hurdle. He then buckled when the pressure was on in last year’s JLT before the same fate at Aintree and now a tame effort once the chips were down in the Ascot Chase.
Surely, he’s evolving into a horse to avoid at the top level?
Doesn’t really matter if (given the chance) Waiting Patiently is as effective on GOOD ground, Steve. Doesn’t matter had he won. Point is WP came back from that run with an injury. Therefore (wisely imo) connections don’t want to risk his future career by running on the surface again. Hence why Cheltenham is not the be all and end all. Should be fine on real good-soft.
Value Is Everything
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