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January 25, 2015 at 14:00 #502895
A fall or blunder is only chance he loses surely? Vautour won’t take him on so his main rival is out too.
Josses hill is only one who could do him?
January 25, 2015 at 14:00 #502896Is the Arkle his barring a fall?
Absolutely, next in the market is Josses Hill and I can’t see him touching UDS. I believe the only horse that could actually give him a race is Ptit Zig and particularly after that he looks to be JLT bound.
If you look at it that way, evens is still probably a good price, he jumps so well and that was a much more mature performance.
January 25, 2015 at 14:15 #502903UDS is going to be my big festival regret. Ive talked the talk what he would do and haven’t backed it enough with my money. Awesome performance today.
January 25, 2015 at 14:19 #502905Luckily for me I haven’t had a play on anything for the Arkle, because there looks only one winner after that showing today.
Just a race for me to watch at the Festival now. I don’t have any each-way fancy against the hot favourite.
I am hoping Ptit Zig will run in the JLT because I have him at 10/1 for that one. Nicholls initially said that was his target but started rumbling about Arkle and RSA options again this past week. Surely UDS put his mind straight about the former race today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
January 25, 2015 at 14:37 #502910will be a great race next sunday un de sceaux v clarcam v Gilgamboa.
I think the Mullins plans will become a lot clearer after this. Win this and un de sceaux heads to the arkle an even money shot. I hope he romps it.
I’ve gone against this ‘Wonder horse’ of Willies, ‘Un Des Scaeux’ in this Grade 1 Irish Arkle,I can see him making a hash of things today and letting
Gilgamboa
take the glory,at 3/1 I’ll take the risk.Whatever the hotpot fav does today he wont be winning no Arkle round Cheltenham…No way!
On todays evidence this ‘Wonder horse’
Un de Sceaux
has got more challenge from the course to worry about than the opposition in the Arkle and granted faster ground he’ll go off even faster himself….. Disaster beckons!
January 25, 2015 at 16:17 #502928Was a massive UDS fan last season and i have him and Josses Hill in the Arkle.
If UDS jumps and travels like that at Cheltenham then he’ll win. The one unknown is the ground – he does have a soft ground action but might change it when encountering better ground. However, the opening day of the festival is likely to be on the softer side of Good, and possibly dead or tacky.
Gilgamboa should be in the JLTJanuary 25, 2015 at 19:07 #502949Tremendous off un de sceaux today!.I’ve won my holiday money for next week off him today …TAPK you did your money on gigamboa and if i remember rightly that’s the horse that blunderd his chance away in a supreme.Get on that machine and get laying UDS for the arkle .. hes my biggest banker off the festivel.Nothing can get this fella off the bridle!
January 25, 2015 at 19:12 #502951I’ve got to agree with Gord, despite an exceptional performance today I cannot get on board with UDS at anything like evens. His highly pronounced soft ground action bothers me for Cheltenham as does his choke out running style, he sets off from any stride approaching a fence and pulls the whole way round. I simply don’t believe he is good enough to ping every fence and get home. Not at evens anyway.
January 25, 2015 at 19:39 #502954I have a Friend sitting on 10/1 vouchers about
Un de Sceaux
for this seasons Arkle.Ladbrokes now go 4/6.I salute those with foresight.I dont believe there’s a horse in the race capable of troubling this fellow,not even my e/w Shout
Vibrato Valtat
,Ladbrokes still go 20/1 about this fellow and imo he is a bigger certainty to place than the Fav is to win and thats because my horse knows Cheltenham.Willies ‘Wonder Horse’ will face a completely different test around Cheltenham on much faster ground than he’s encountered.One thing is for sure ‘Gilgamboa’ and ‘Clarcam’ needn’t bother turning up as will many of our own.This race could cut up horribly but I do believe Paul Nicholls will make up the numbers with ‘Valtat’,if so the Fav goes off 1/2 and mine about 6/1 so from an Ante-Post perspective,I’ll stick with mine hoping the fav does fluff his lines.
January 25, 2015 at 20:08 #502956I totally agree about the race cutting up.I think maybe like the time simonsig won the arkle.
I’m on UDS at nice prices but when i learned vautour was going for the JLT i kept firing into UDS at 5-2…I agree UDS biggest threat will be his jumping but nothing seems to get him off the bridle if something comes near him he just goes quicker.I haven’t seen the race today as i’ve been working will watch in a bit.I will be having a few beers on holiday next week courtesy off UDS and mr william hill
January 25, 2015 at 20:17 #502962A stunning performance, but I wouldn’t take evens any horse in the Arkle, even on the day.
The biggest dilemma now will be for the bookies when they all go NRNB and need to price the race and try to stave off the EW vultures – that’s where the money will be made in the Arkle
January 25, 2015 at 20:38 #502967Un De Sceaux was superb today. I said in the racing features section on here that his jumping is potentially a great asset to him, and it proved as much today. Gilgamboa has looked a very good jumper but made mistakes going Un De Sceaux’s speed today and I’d prefer him to Clarcam wherever they go. I wouldn’t be so much worried about Un De Sceaux’s jumping at Cheltenham but how will the likes of Josses Hill jump going that sort of clip?
January 26, 2015 at 11:36 #503024Been doing a bit of study on the Arkle market this morning, and there’s huge value in the place book.
The over-round for the place book on the top 15 horses in the betting on Oddschecker (right down to Sizing Granite at 40/1) is almost exactly 300%.
However, there a number of horses who are unlikely to run, on the back of yesterday’s events.
Take out Vautour (surely goes JLT now), Gilgamboa (likewise), Ptit Zig, Apache Stronghold and one of Court Minstrel and Gitane Du Berlais and the place book stands at 213.5%. I think I’ve probably taken an optimistic view on the number of runners, and have no idea if the likes of Grumeti and Sizing Granite will run.
So what is going to run? Clarcam will probably go here regardless of yesterday’s thrashing as he looks best suited to this trip and and the Grand Annual won’t appeal off 156. Josses Hill another who should run, as will Vibratot Valtat and Sgt Reckless.
It’s the latter two who appeal each-way at 20/1 and 25/1 respectively.
January 26, 2015 at 18:26 #503073Court Minstrel will surely line up if the ground is good – a CD win to his name this season ?
January 26, 2015 at 18:40 #503077Can’t really see any value. Yes the percentages say otherwise. However I see clarcam, bosses and sceaux nabbing at least two of the three places. I’m not willing to expose myself chasing one place.
January 26, 2015 at 18:55 #503083I have a Friend sitting on 10/1 vouchers about
Un de Sceaux
for this seasons Arkle.Ladbrokes now go 4/6.I salute those with foresight.I dont believe there’s a horse in the race capable of troubling this fellow,not even my e/w Shout
Vibrato Valtat
,Ladbrokes still go 20/1 about this fellow and imo he is a bigger certainty to place than the Fav is to win and thats because my horse knows Cheltenham.Willies ‘Wonder Horse’ will face a completely different test around Cheltenham on much faster ground than he’s encountered.One thing is for sure ‘Gilgamboa’ and ‘Clarcam’ needn’t bother turning up as will many of our own.This race could cut up horribly but I do believe Paul Nicholls will make up the numbers with ‘Valtat’,if so the Fav goes off 1/2 and mine about 6/1 so from an Ante-Post perspective,I’ll stick with mine hoping the fav does fluff his lines.
Ladbrokes have slashed
Vibrato Valtat
into 14/1 and thats still big for a Grade 1 winner sure to place at least.
January 27, 2015 at 19:26 #503170With Josses Hill entered in the Scilly Isles over 2m 4f this weekend, do we think Henderson has had a look at Un De Sceaux and thought ‘**** that’?
With Josses Hill’s jumping leaving a lot to be desired thus far, with the horse looking far from the finished article in that regard, a quick fire Arkle could be something they want to avoid.
Could he go for the JLT?
The JLT has no doubt taken from the Arkle and RSA in recent years, but it could be one of the races of the week this year. Vautour, Ptit Zig, Valseur Lido, Apache Stronghold, Gilgamboa, Josses Hill, Smashing, if half of these line up we’ll have some race.
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