Arkle

[MarkTT]

Quotes are from his ATR blog – a must read if you back horses ridden by Barry.

Commentators have been overly critical of Josses Hill this season. I think they were expecting Sprinter Sacre II.
He improved with every race last season and i expect the same this year.

[Steeplechasing]

Graghty’s immediate post-race quote to journalists:

Josses Hill has got so much scope over a fence,

he frightened himself at one or two. Because his jumping is still a bit erratic, he´s making things hard for himself,

but he was good over the last couple.

There´s work to do on him,

but he´s a horse with alot of class

Still, I’m delighted to be alive to witness the first example of a horse’s jumping improving immensely in the couple of days between racing and his jockey writing an article about it.

[MarkTT]

I’d see it as a sensible review of the race. A jockeys immediate reaction ( he didn’t write an article about it ) carries weight in racing but he’s obviously watched it back and thought about it.

There are still positives in that reaction you’ve posted.

[The Ante-Post King]

What was peoples thoughts on josses hill’s arkle trial today?.I thought jumped sketchy stayed on well as he always does!…i can see JH staying on well in the arkle and getting placed but think he could get too far behind!.

I think if Un de sceaux goes for this and sets off at the clip that he does I can see JH jumping coming under serious pressure.

I think the opposite,’Un des Sceaux’ will fall and ‘Josses hill’ will pop round. If there’s one horse who’s market price has never waivered its ‘Josses’ and thats because Bookmakers know the esteem he’s held in.

[Shack1]

Assuming Vautour goes for the JLT, I fail to see anything here that can live with (or peg back) UDS if he puts in a clear round. His jumping has been excellent bar the crumple on landing, however Cheltenham is a far cry from the layout of the two courses he has jumped round (in part).
My fear is the first couple of fences down the home straight. Remember when Well Chief set off at breakneck speed and overjumped in the 2007 Champion chase ? I could see this happening. The other part of the course that’s a worry is three out, another downhill fence.
I have a 4/1 voucher which I think represents fair value, but at the current 2/1 levels, that’s more akin to the chances of getting round.

[sketti]

For me UDS is a worthy favourite but far too short. I am on Vautour but suspect the Ruby factor might see him go JLT, he won’t be able to ride VL in that.

I still think Vautour will be the better of the two.

Don’t forget UDS is notorious for not travelling well. A hectic trip to Chelt and the euphoria might catch him out.

Also the horse has had two chases in races for £5k. Not the classiest. He has barely been challenged. For me he is a favourite to take, on. Could not back 5-2 at all.

Sadly I’m on a loser on Vautour by the looks of things. I would have preferred 5-2 in this case on UDS however.

[KingSprinterSacre]

will be a great race next sunday un de sceaux v clarcam v Gilgamboa.

I think the Mullins plans will become a lot clearer after this. Win this and un de sceaux heads to the arkle an even money shot. I hope he romps it.

[Ricco]

Un De Sceaux only fell because he’s a headcase, he’s jumped fences very well otherwise. They’ll obviously be forced to go a crazy clip with him in the race, really can’t see Josses Hill jumping well enough, he’s not looked comfortable, will he jump better in a quicker race on better ground with more adrenaline??

[MarkTT]

Thing about this race is i know that Josses Hill likes good ground but runs well on soft.

Never seen UDS run on anything other than soft / heavy

Also, nine out of the last ten winners had either won or been placed at the Cheltenham Festival before

I think it’s one of those two.

[Ricco]

I’d have to see Josses Hill over fences again before I’d part with even a penny, certainly not convinced yet, but he’s obviously talented.

I’ve followed UDS very closely, mainly when he was a dark horse for the Champion hurdle, he’d obviously looked pretty spectacular without beating any horses of note.

I don’t know what the ground was officially, but looks pretty good when he ran in Auteuil last March. I have absolutely not doubt, watching the way he runs, that firmer ground would be a problem, he’d probably love it and that’s the danger, he could fly in to the distance and be pulled up exhausted after a mile

Not sure how aware people were of his races in France, but here’s two videos worth watching if you haven’t already and want to back him in the Arkle. Gemix is obviously a very good horse, but Un De Sceaux was saved by the line in the first after going out hard and almost not getting home, believe that was 19f though:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZP2Ehjpihg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaho0JtmAgA

And these interviews with Geraghty and Walsh after the races shows what we all know, he runs his own pace, and if that’s too fast in the Arkle, he can be caught, there will be plenty of unspectacular but good staying horses in the Arkle. The first with Geraghty is worth watching for comedy value!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mrp4A6XmtH0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzFm4eyegvE

On another note, if I owned Ptit Zig, I’d be very tempted to run him in the Arkle, I think there’s more questions over UDS and the rest of that bunch than Vautour and the JLT lot. He’s looked very nice this season, really come on over fences.

[Jasolong]

I’m going to dare to put it out there but ….
Un De Sceaux is my lay of the whole festival ahead of sire de Grugy.
He is way too short for the arkle considering he was never actually tested over hurdles so we will never know his true rating over the smaller obstacles
Also his 2 chasing runs havent been amazing; his first, he obviously fell but for would of won nicely and his second yes he won easily but it wasn’t even a graded race so again the form to me is not there yet at all to justify his clear favouritism for the arkle
I also think he will likely lose tomorrow in the Irish arkle as the form of gilgamboa and Clarcam are both stronger over fences

[thehorsesmouth]

I’m going to dare to put it out there but ….
Un De Sceaux is my lay of the whole festival ahead of sire de Grugy.
He is way too short for the arkle considering he was never actually tested over hurdles so we will never know his true rating over the smaller obstacles
Also his 2 chasing runs havent been amazing; his first, he obviously fell but for would of won nicely

and his second yes he won easily but it wasn’t even a graded race

so again the form to me is not there yet at all to justify his clear favouritism for the arkle
I also think he will likely lose tomorrow in the Irish arkle as the form of gilgamboa and Clarcam are both stronger over fences

I wouldn’t crab the form of Un De Sceaux’s second chase start Jasolong, have you looked at it?

He ‘easily’ beat Smashing by 12 lengths. Smashing previously finished 10.5 lengths behind Don Poli and Wounded Warrior, form that looks very strong now. He has since won a beginners chase at Gowran by 33 lengths. I would consider Smashing a very reliable sort who has probably been under-rated. He was only beaten 3.5 lengths off a mark of 143 in the Coral Cup, and has taken to fences very well. There’s no doubt that Fairyhouse form is well above average for a beginners chase. Just because it wasn’t a graded race doesn’t mean that he didn’t beat a graded animal.

[stevecaution]

Another farcically small field for the Irish Arkle tomorrow and a repeat size of 3 runners, as there was with Vautour last week.

At least there are three decent ones this time and we should learn how good Un De Sceaux is, with Gilgamboa and Clarcam in opposition.

8/11

is the general price for Un De Sceaux for tomorrow and no doubt Mullins’ fans will be doubling this guy up with Hurricane Fly at a tempting looking

evens

to try to thump the bookies.

I don’t like betting in small fields and this will be the biggest price Un De Sceaux has gone off on these shores since Punchestown in 2013, when he was a whopping 5/4 favourite. That’s quite a stat for an 8/11 shot and indicates the lack of opposition he has faced in his career thus far. I think he’s short enough, both tomorrow and for The Arkle based on his profile.

If forced to have a bet tomorrow I would pick Clarcam. OK something might have been amiss with Vautour the day he ran behind Clarcam but the latter horse was well ahead of Ted Veale as well and he gets 10 lbs from the other two horses. At a whopping 9/2, he looks a better bit of sport than the 8/11 fav who has fallen before. When you look at the Arkle betting Clarcam is generally about 8/1 and it makes little sense to me to have better than half that price against only 2 horses and in receipt of 10 lbs.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[thehorsesmouth]

Even though there’s only three runners it’s a fascinating race. What will be most interesting for me is whether McCoy and Cooper allow Un De Sceaux a decent sized lead or try to go with them. While Clarcam is arguably the value at 9/2, he’s the least exciting of the three for me. Gilgamboa has always looked a horse of serious potential. Whether he should be two points shorter in the betting than Clarcam is debatable on what they have achieved but the form of his Limerick win is probably as strong as Clarcam’s beating of Ted Veale.

Un De Sceaux’s jumping has been questioned but it’s potentially a huge asset to him. He jumped impeccably before knuckling over at Thurles and again put in a good round last time. It remains to be seen whether his two rivals can jump as well going at such a pace and that adds further intrigue. I wouldn’t want to be laying the favourite at 8/11.

[The Ante-Post King]

will be a great race next sunday un de sceaux v clarcam v Gilgamboa.

I think the Mullins plans will become a lot clearer after this. Win this and un de sceaux heads to the arkle an even money shot. I hope he romps it.

I’ve gone against this ‘Wonder horse’ of Willies, ‘Un Des Scaeux’ in this Grade 1 Irish Arkle,I can see him making a hash of things today and letting

Gilgamboa

take the glory,at 3/1 I’ll take the risk.Whatever the hotpot fav does today he wont be winning no Arkle round Cheltenham…No way!

[Ricco]

Was really umming and ahhing whether to take 2/1 for UDS for the arkle before that, won’t be getting that now!

EDIT: He’s now odds on with many bookies, that’s gut wrenching, before the race I was thinking I’d still be able to take 6/4 or something if he ran well

[The Young Fella]

Oh boy, that was insanely good from UDS.

He’s just taken two of his most interesting potential Arkle rivals and ripped them apart, giving 10lbs to one them.

Is the Arkle his barring a fall?

[Author]

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