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Haven’t seen today’s race, but Miss Lavelle said of Suntini that ‘he is best coming off a fast pace over 2 miles on good to soft ground’. They have had a lot of problems with the horse which they seem to be sorting out. Perhaps the race was just set up for him.
Goldie, I’ve had enough of them tbh. Someone still owes me £150 for a Zarkava bet on the Arc from a different forum, a certain member of this forum who shall remain nameless took a good couple of months to pay up a 4-figure sum on a 2000 Guineas winner and Oaks winner, a couple of ‘mates’ went into total hiding after £50 bets on the number of goals Shevchenko and Kuyt would score in their debut seasons were both winners. Unless people are actually going to stump up the liability, why bother quoting fictitious prices? Just makes them look utterly stupid when they don’t respond and as such lose all their dignity.
Anyone who offers 20/1 about their one horse book is either clueless,stupid,attention seeking or all 3!! Aido1, dissapointed!
If you are talking trends then the obvious one is on-the-day market related.
For last years festival I scoured the internet compiling some useful stats. And this race had some clear stats
19 of last 20 winners were single figure odds (other winner was 11-1!).
2 of last 17 winners were the favourite.
2 of last 12 winners was Irish trained.So whatever the case you want to be on a single figure odds horse that is not the Jolly! And seeing as Ireland won last year (doubtful for 2 in a row lol) then that helps narrow the field!
FWIW I think Tataniano is still in with a shout. Much depends on the ground though.
Hurdle form/rating is essential for working out the Arkle. Not always the highest rated (though it often is) but highly rated is a must, as a rule.
If you are talking trends then the obvious one is on-the-day market related.
For last years festival I scoured the internet compiling some useful stats. And this race had some clear stats
19 of last 20 winners were single figure odds (other winner was 11-1!).
2 of last 17 winners were the favourite.
2 of last 12 winners was Irish trained.So whatever the case you want to be on a single figure odds horse that is not the Jolly! And seeing as Ireland won last year (doubtful for 2 in a row lol) then that helps narrow the field!
FWIW I think Tataniano is still in with a shout. Much depends on the ground though.
Doug, as a trends guy even I completely ignore the first 2 trends. They make zero sense. Last year Forpadydeplasterer was about 12/1 the week leading up to the Festival. So if they’d run the race 4 or 5 days earlier then Kalahari King would’ve won instead? How about if a horse is gambled on from 12/1 to 9/1 that meets all the criteria? Sounds good, right? Well what if he’s then backed into favourite? Does that mean he’ll lose?
As a trends guy, odds-related trends piss me off beyond belief.
Its just a stat, i didn’t say i follow them religiously. No need for the insulting language Detroit. Thats the facts, take them or (in your case) leave them!
Dont think I’ll bother posting up any other stats for the other races if this is gonna be the reaction I get.
Never convinced by Tataniano, but many appear to have forgotten that Tidal Bay took two fences home with him when Leslingtaylor beat him at Doncaster in his final race before the Arkle in 2008.
Granted, this looks to be a much better contest, but it would be folly to rule him out based on one defeat.
I’m still a Sizing Europe man and think the Irish could enjoy a clean sweep in this race.
Tataniano was priced purely on the yard he is in.
You’re putting a hard earned reputation on the line here IC with such a rash call, if you wasn’t such a popular and dedicated member you’d have been shot down for the comments, I hope you retract these comments some time in the future.
Running 2.13 seconds slower than Well Chief at Cheltenham and running the same time as Master Minded isn’t what I call a price based on the yard he is in.
Why did Pistolet Noir contract in price when moving from Nick Williams to Nicholls? There was no additional form to go on.
Sorry to those moaning about me offering value on Tatatiano, but his most recent performance surely vindicates my opinion? Either way, wont be offering prices ever again, its not worth the abusive comments or hassle. However, i will offer my opinions on what price I believe a horse should be in a race. If Tatatiano wasn’t with Nicholls, he would be 33/1 for the Arkle, which would be an accurate reflection of his chances. He has everything to prove now, as his hurdle and chasing form is miles behind the principles on offer. Captain Cee Bees form is looking stronger by the day, andat this stage, looks the one to beat, although I will need to see him back jumping before wading in. Sizing Europe and Sommersby, remain the most solid choices.
Aido is bang on the mark re prices on offer on Nicholls
"If Tatatiano wasn’t with Nicholls, he would be 33/1 for the Arkle" ……Not that I’d back him at 50s
Witness Toubab (for example) going off at 4/6 yesterday and beaten out of sight from a long way out
His hurdle form? Last of three in his only run
His best flat form? 3rd of 4
His odds yesterday
if he had been from a small yard?
16-1
Yawn, not exactly anything new, is it?
Aido1, spot on, it’s not worth the hassle of us chasing you up to offer your ghost prices. And thank goodness you won’t be doing it anymore.
I’ve heard that the Powers Gold Cup is under consideration for Zaarito. His target will be dependent on how he runs at Leopardstown on Sunday week.
More or less confirmed by Colm today:
"He’s not in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham, he’s only in the Arkle, but looking at the runners there it’s most unlikely he’ll go there.
"He’ll probably stay at home and go to the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse."
I personally think hurdles form is particularly important when it comes to novice chasers. Look at all the recent winners of the Arkle. All of them would be near enough to the highest rated hurdle horse in the race (and who knows what would have happened had Accordion Etoile stood up in ’06 Zarkava!). There is often little collateral novice chase form to consider when looking at these novice chases and you can do far worse to look back at the hurdles form.
Imperial, bar the 5yos, every Arkle winner since 1995 had a RPR Hurdles rating of at least 139. If you’re interested at all, based on the current trends (and possibly a bit of obvious no-hoper removal, I can’t remember), the Arkle winner is one of;
Quiscover Fontaine
Riverside Theatre
Shakervilz
Somersby
Sports Line
Tataniano
The Nightingale
You’re The TopI appreciate plans for a few of them might be to swerve the Arkle (The Nightingale likely to go for the Jewson or R&SA for example), but there you go.
I find it interesting that Tataniano has followed pretty much the exact same path as Azertyuiop. Novice chase, November Novices’ Chase, long break and then a novice chase.
Nb. I removed Kangaroo Court since Lavelle will only go to the Festival on quick ground and Aintree/Punchestown are the main targets.
Interesting stats Zark, and doubly interesting that you highlighted the route Tataniano is taking prior to the festival. The horse jumps fences beautifully and has done so at Cheltenham twice now.If he could emulate Azertyuiop then I will be a very happy man indeed, especially taking the revised prices after the little hiccup of last week!
All too old. And the last Arkle winner to have fallen in a novice chase was Moscow Flyer. The 1995 and 96 winners both fell as well, but these days they’re a rarity. Previous fallers have a dire record in the Supreme Novices’ as well so it’s no surprise. Not a single faller has won the R&SA in the past 10 years, but Nicanor won the Ballymore despite falling earlier in the season.
Sizing Europe also needs to break the trend of having started his novice chase season so early. It’s not a trend I’ve looked at but it’s a really dire record going off memory.
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