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Aido, I assume you missed my message to you so I’ll post it again. I’ve actually just had £10 at 16s so I’ve edited it a tad;
‘Hasn’t put me off him at all, and if you’d still like to offer me 20s, Aido1, I’d be very happy to have £10 on that. If you’re true to your word PM me. If you only want me to stake a fiver, that’s fine. I’d want the liability and my stake sent to a well-respected and trusted member of the forum (Fist
or preferably Cormack) and they can send the funds on to the recipient after the race.’Tataniano"s Knockers seem to be forgetting one thing! The Arkle is his target! Not today!Pipeopener!
I don’t see what the big deal is lads? We all have opinions on horses and we come on here to voice them and get a bit of debate going.
Myself and a few other forum members were of the opinion that Tataniano was a scandously short price having beaten nothing of note. It appears like we may be correct but that’s not to say we’re correct about every horse. I thought Denman was finished before the Hennessy!
I personally think hurdles form is particularly important when it comes to novice chasers. Look at all the recent winners of the Arkle. All of them would be near enough to the highest rated hurdle horse in the race (and who knows what would have happened had Accordion Etoile stood up in ’06 Zarkava!). There is often little collateral novice chase form to consider when looking at these novice chases and you can do far worse to look back at the hurdles form.
For example, earlier on this season Alpha Ridge was favourite a few days before the Drinmore and Pandorama was twice his price despite having beaten him 26l in a novice hurdle the previous year. Pandorama was backed off the boards, went off favourite and duly dispatched Alpha Ridge comfortably.
Imperial, that’s fair enough but I don’t think it’s a general assumption you can make. You could argue that very good hurdlers might struggle at fences due to their fluency and speed over timber. My memory’s not great but if you look at Well Chief (Triumph runner-up) beating Kicking King (Supreme Novices’ runner-up), Mariah Rollins (had absolutely no chance when unseating over the last in the Supreme) finishing ahead of War of Attrition (Supreme runner-up) in the Arkle, Hill Society beaten by Space Trucker in the Champion Hurdle but comprehensively reversed placings in the Arkle, you’ll see that you can’t always apply the ‘rule’.
Aidol ya bottle merchant
. You went into hiding when a deal was struck to lay Tatianano at 20s, then you come back out of the woodwork after a couple of weeks once he gets beat. It is no coincedence ! And no, i don’t still want your price. Goldie, I’ve had enough of them tbh. Someone still owes me £150 for a Zarkava bet on the Arc from a different forum, a certain member of this forum who shall remain nameless took a good couple of months to pay up a 4-figure sum on a 2000 Guineas winner and Oaks winner, a couple of ‘mates’ went into total hiding after £50 bets on the number of goals Shevchenko and Kuyt would score in their debut seasons were both winners. Unless people are actually going to stump up the liability, why bother quoting fictitious prices? Just makes them look utterly stupid when they don’t respond and as such lose all their dignity.
Imperial, that’s fair enough but I don’t think it’s a general assumption you can make. You could argue that very good hurdlers might struggle at fences due to their fluency and speed over timber. My memory’s not great but if you look at Well Chief (Triumph runner-up) beating Kicking King (Supreme Novices’ runner-up), Mariah Rollins (had absolutely no chance when unseating over the last in the Supreme) finishing ahead of War of Attrition (Supreme runner-up) in the Arkle, Hill Society beaten by Space Trucker in the Champion Hurdle but comprehensively reversed placings in the Arkle, you’ll see that you can’t always apply the ‘rule’.
No I wouldn’t apply it as a general rule but I find people are always quick to overlook the hurdles form when it comes to novice chases. You’ll often see horses here in Ireland running in beginners chases who would be a stone or more clear of the rest of the field on hurdles ratings. Just because there is ten or more birch fences in front of them rather than hurdles, they become backable prices.
Sizing Europe last May at Punchestown was a perfect example. A month previous he had only finished three and a bit lengths behind Solwhit, Punjabi and Quevega yet he went off at 4/5 in a beginners chase against a field of desperate horses who wouldn’t have got within fifty lengths of Solwhit.
I personally prefer horses that go straight from their novice hurdle season to chasing. Like you say, horses can get too used to hurdles and they don’t adapt as well over fences then. I wouldn’t like any good chasing prospect to have no more than 7/8 runs over timber.
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Nicholls said: "I’m angry with myself for running him. The ground was wrong and the trip was wrong. We should’ve gone to Doncaster but it’s difficult fitting in the plans for the novices. He’s much better than that."
Goldie, I’ve had enough of them tbh. Someone still owes me £150 for a Zarkava bet on the Arc from a different forum, a certain member of this forum who shall remain nameless took a good couple of months to pay up a 4-figure sum on a 2000 Guineas winner and Oaks winner, a couple of ‘mates’ went into total hiding after £50 bets on the number of goals Shevchenko and Kuyt would score in their debut seasons were both winners. Unless people are actually going to stump up the liability, why bother quoting fictitious prices? Just makes them look utterly stupid when they don’t respond and as such lose all their dignity.
If you are striking up a bet, get the person to give you the odds on the machine. I’d imagine you’d request a price, and they could log on and take you up on it.
Aidol didn’t even need to offer those daft odds. All he needed to do was go on the machine, and lay it at a point higher than anyone else, which would have been 9’s.
Tataniano"s Knockers seem to be forgetting one thing! The Arkle is his target! Not today!Pipeopener!
You’d best be hoping the pipes were 100% shut prior to today then
Couldn’t win a 2 horse race – no danger of Sunnyhillboy running a race, would actually get a rating reflective of his ability if he had.
There’s no denying that Tataniano is my selection for the Arkle, and still is despite today’s poor performance. The fact it has doubled in price as consequence is appealing and seems a bit of a kneejerk reaction by the bookies (as always). Last weekend aside, it seems that the yard have struggled to find winners these last few days (namely Gullible Gordon, Aldertune at Fontwell and 1833’s poor performance today) and Tataniano might have been affected somewhat by this lull.
Nevertheless, it was very soft at Newbury today, which clearly didn’t suit Tataniano, yet he was only beaten half a length. The most worrying thing however was that he seemed to be jumping right, not the best of signs when tackling left-handed Cheltenham again, despite the fact he jumped flawlessly when there last time. IMO, this was just a one-off, and factors such as the yard’s bad two days (although stable form is rather subjective) and the ground might’ve contributed. Currently 14/1, I shall be re-investing in the hope that any issues are ironed out come mid-March and that Cheltenham reinvigorates him.
Easy explanation to the poor performances of Gullible Gordon, Aldertune and Aiteen Thirtythree: they’re all average at best.
I personally prefer horses that go straight from their novice hurdle season to chasing. Like you say, horses can get too used to hurdles and they don’t adapt as well over fences then. I wouldn’t like any good chasing prospect to have no more than 7/8 runs over timber.
Interesting shout. I’ll go through that on the trends with the winners from the past 15 years and see that’s had any bearing on the result.
Looks like Christmas has come early for those who wanted Tataniano to fail.
You could fill the forum with I told you so comments but not so sure that is the way forward.
The only thing anyone can say with any certainty is that if he reproduces today’s performance he has no chance in the Arkle.
Clearly he hasn’t run his race and chances are conditions will be very different in March so it isn’t quite a lost cause as some are falling over themselves to suggest. The shorter trip will definitely help and the ground is likely to be a good deal quicker.
I was worried by his jumping to the right but several horses seemed to follow a similar course in the handicap chase so perhaps that had something to do with Newbury and soft ground. It wasn’t as if he did it at every fence.
Outside the front three in market the Arkle is probably not quite the race it has been built up to be. I would be amazed if Walsh decided to ride Sports Line as I doubt he would be anywhere near quick enough on quicker ground.
I personally prefer horses that go straight from their novice hurdle season to chasing. Like you say, horses can get too used to hurdles and they don’t adapt as well over fences then. I wouldn’t like any good chasing prospect to have no more than 7/8 runs over timber.
Interesting shout. I’ll go through that on the trends with the winners from the past 15 years and see that’s had any bearing on the result.
Good man Zark, appreciate it.
Imperial, amount of runs over hurdles before the Arkle winner went started their chase campaigns;
5/6yos; 0 6 2 5 5 7 6 10
7/8yos; 7 15 12 9 13 6 4
Struggling to see a pattern there if I’m honest.
Imperial, possibly you’re onto something with the R&SA though. I’ll go through the others soon but the amount of runs over hurdles before commencing the chase campaign they had before winning the R&SA were;
0 3 5 2 4 10 4 6 5 5 9
Note I’ve only from 1998 because I’ve not done trends for before then yet.
Interesting thing here is that the 9 and 10 were Cooldine & Rule Supreme respectively – both trained by Willie Mullins. The 0 was his as well, Florida Pearl.
As I said though this could purely be a coincidence and I’ll look through the also-rans later.
or preferably Cormack) and they can send the funds on to the recipient after the race.’
. You went into hiding when a deal was struck to lay Tatianano at 20s, then you come back out of the woodwork after a couple of weeks once he gets beat. It is no coincedence ! And no, i don’t still want your price. 
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