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Thx Millbear
I understand what you say, it’s not a handicap so its not like they have kept the best till the big day. I happen to think this is a very good horse in his own right, and if the conditions come up soft, he will love that.
Actually his price was 40’s after after Grands Crus had withdrawn, and nothing much of any note in the race has withdrwan….all the big guns are there.
VC dropped him from 33s to 25s today at 1232. Corals, who were 40s after Grands Crus came out are now 20s. On checking at the moment, blue square and 888, just cut him from 25s to 18s at 1618.
I’m not saying this is not a stepping stone to the national, but I think he has more than a fair chance of a place if he is fit. Normally when NTD knows a horse is up to giving a good show, it often is reflected in the market, that’s all I said to watch out for on Wednesday (after Grands Crus came out)
Good luck
PS I see as we speak that Skybet have just cut him from 25s to 22s (at 1622)
I just wondered why the time of my last message is showing as 1729, when it is just after 4.30pm now?…..Is this site based outside the UK?
Just a thoughtBigG the time is fast by roughly an hour on here in an effort to reduce Fists after timing
Thanks for that Millbear, all is now clear….well sorta
I’m off for the weekend now….check in when I get back Sunday night. Hope Cheltenham is good to us all
Good luck
Fraid not, Fran.
I found this on eBay the other day. Will purchase it now.
Thanks for that link; it will be great to watch these races from the start. Now all we need is the equivalent for the Gold Cup, and for the seventies.
BTW; imagine a DVD of King Georges from the seventies on. Captain Christy, Pendil, Wayward Lad, Dessie, it would be awesomeA weekend such as this is testament to the strength of National Hunt racing.
Two super cards at Cheltenham and Donny, and even before Channel 4 go on air we got Baby Mix vs Grumeti and Menorah vs Kid Cassidy and Kumbeshwar to keep us occupied. If that wasn’t enough, there’s always Leopardstown on Sunday.
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My old pal Tidal Bay certainly got the better of yet another jockey on his debut effort for Paul Nicholls last time out, so it will be interesting to see what he makes of Ruby Walsh – I’m sure the nutcase will try and finish what he started at Doncaster a few years ago!
He certainly has a chance at these weights to come out on top but, c’mon, form analysis such as this is useless when it comes to Tidal Bay. He could probably give even this calibre of opposition 6lb and a beating if he really felt like it.
Along with ‘Tiddles’, I’m also a huge fan of both Diamond Harry and Captain Chris. Diamond Harry would be tough to beat on a flat track, but I’m not convinced this place brings out the best in him and all of his main rivals are proven around here at a decent level.
I’ve long suggested that Captain Chris could be a Gold Cup horse. Like his seasonal debut, he never travelled or jumped with any real fluency at Kempton and it was sheer courage and talent that enabled him to grab third. Getting into a more suitable rhythm will be easier around here, but he does have stamina to prove. If he stays, he should win.
I can certainly see why Midnight Chase is popular. He ran a massive race under a big weight last time out and the winner has since followed up. A far better horse around his beloved Cheltenham and has fewer questions to answer than his main rivals. Much the same can be said about Time For Rupert and his latest success would have done him the world of good. A lovely, genuine sort, but he may come up a shade short against some of these.
I think Midnight Chase will be hard to keep out the first three, but the most interesting contest will be Walsh Vs Tidal Bay. If Walsh wins, Tidal Bay wins!
Good write up Bos, but I wonder…
Realise the trainer is concerned about whether Diamond Harry acts on the track, but where is the evidence he doesn’t?
First two starts there were winners, over hurdles in Nov 08 and this meeting in 09 (beating a good horse in Bensalem). Then third in the Neptunes, the best staying race for novices that season. Only other run at Prestbury was pulled up in the 2010 RSA. However, Diamond Harry runs up light with a normal campaign and is best fresh. The pulled up came little over a month after a win at Newbury. In my opinion Diamond Harry’s percieved inability to act around Cheltenham makes him a good bet at around 7/2.
Hope Time For Rupert runs well, as backed him for the Gold Cup ante-post just before the RSA disaster. But he’s disappointed since and seemed to me might be hurting. Not convinced the win at Newbury is up to anything.
Captain Chris coped well with Cheltenham in the Arkle, but whether he’ll be effective again going left-handed remains to be seen. Hasn’t jumped that well this term either, but obvious potential to improve.
Value Is EverythingSurely not a worry "Z" most of them were rags or false prices. I suppose they could have been held up in their work if the weather has been bad in his part of the country but Menorah and Captain Chris he’d still make sure they were kept on the move even if it meant taking them elsewhere.
He knocked up 4 winners on the trot a fortnight ago so I doubt if things have gone wrong this quickly.
Good write up Bos, but I wonder…
Realise the trainer is concerned about whether Diamond Harry acts on the track, but where is the evidence he doesn’t?
First two starts there were winners, over hurdles in Nov 08 and this meeting in 09 (beating a good horse in Bensalem). Then third in the Neptunes, the best staying race for novices that season. Only other run at Prestbury was pulled up in the 2010 RSA. However, Diamond Harry runs up light with a normal campaign and is best fresh. The pulled up came little over a month after a win at Newbury. In my opinion Diamond Harry’s percieved inability to act around Cheltenham makes him a good bet at around 7/2.
Hope Time For Rupert runs well, as backed him for the Gold Cup ante-post just before the RSA disaster. But he’s disappointed since and seemed to me might be hurting. Not convinced the win at Newbury is up to anything.
Captain Chris coped well with Cheltenham in the Arkle, but whether he’ll be effective again going left-handed remains to be seen. Hasn’t jumped that well this term either, but obvious potential to improve.
I can certainly see you arguement, Ginge.
He ran up to a similar level of form with both Karabak (Baring Bingham / Long Walk) and Bensalem (novice hurdle @ Cheltenham / novice chase @ Newbury), but his performance in the RSA was a worry. I take into consideration your opinion regarding Diamond Harry being best when fresh – and that is certainly true – but he did register back to back wins in the new year prior to his flop.
I think a horse is more than capable of beating inferior opposition around a track that doesn’t really suit (Denman has a dual CD victory to his name around Wincanton!), but it’s a whole different challenge at the highest level and Diamond Harry will be facing some rivals who are not only proven, but excel around Prestbury Park.
John Francome raised an interesting point on the Morning Line regarding the way he carries his tail, but it’s his head carriage that raises some doubts in my mind.
To be honest, I hope you’re right. We know Midnight Chase is a good benchmark for any aspiring Gold Cup challenger after his fine effort in the race last year, and what we arguably need is for Diamond Harry and Captain Chris to battle out the finish and pull clear.
That would certainly make for some interesting debates between now and Cheltenham.
For selfish reasons i hope
Captain Chris
gets the trip and goes for Gold as he is too closely matched with my Ryanair fancy
Medermit
.For as tough and game as
Midnight Chase
is the same cant be said for
Tidal Bay
or
Time for Rupert
both have their quirks.
Diamond Harry
is as fragile as a glass vase and thats both physical and mental so i give him No chance these days and
Little Josh
is a handicapper,a good one but could he ever reach the echelons of the likes of Tidal Bay? No and so at the weights I am staying ultra loyal to the horse Paul Nicholls would get a helluva lot of satisfaction from proving he can bake a fruitcake,i mean train one!
Tidal Bay
,I hope Ruby comes back without a bloody nose as he can sit well forward on a horse (Kauto Star) noticeably and this fellow can certainly throw his head back at times!
I think Diamond Harry isn’t too bad a shout at 4/1 e/w. People get too hung up and say he’s at his best first time out and all the rest of it. From where i’m standing he’s 10 from 14, so his trainer is good at getting the right race for him. Having Noel fehily on board is a plus for the horse i feel. I don’t think he’ll be a million miles away. Although if i strongly thought CC was going to get the trip and behave himself today i’d change my opinion.
too many doubts about these – so have had a little each way on Knockara Beau. Tiday Bay vs Ruby will ge a good contest – my moneys on Tidal Bay winning
Think
Midnight Chase
at 10/1 is an absolute cracking bet for this. Ran a blinder under a huge weight on softer ground than probably ideal last time, that was the first sign of showing some of the excellent form that sent him to the Gold Cup last year.
Will prefer the better ground and has an excellent record at Cheltenham with 4 wins registered.
I reckon at least two of the front 4 in the betting in front of him will falter and I don’t see anything at a bigger price to worry about, so looks sure to finish top 3 at least for me!!
Come to Daddy!!
These Saturdays getting easier and easier….sick I didn’t put it in me daily lays and plays thread…well happy though and a great ride from DC….!
Well done. Can’t understand why I didn’t back him myself tbh. Looked at the 10s and thought he was too big.
After that I think these days Diamond Harry is not only best fresh for physical reasons, but mentally too. Suppose it could be because he "needed the race", doubt it. Found nothing off the bridle and wandered; more likely a temperament issue.
As expected, Time For Rupert ran as if amiss again, Captain Chris jumped right and Tidal Bay could not be galvanised until too late. Midnight Chase is an admirable racehorse but can’t see him holding on to the lead down the hill in the Gold Cup. 25/1 looks fair enough.
Be a fine Grand National type.
Value Is Everything
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