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It’s quite easy to knock 33/1 shots in the biggest race of the year
I can’t have her not still improving. She’s a big girl, she’ll still be growing and looked to me like she was going again at the finish of the French Oaks.
She also only does enough in her races, so is never going to win by lengths.Funny enough had a few pound coins on Capri last night for this @ 190.0+
Probably prefers softer ground anyway so not missing out on much with this weather.Obviously has to get back to the track first but sounds promising
“he’ll be back in the autumn. He is sound now to go back cantering again. I’d say Royal Ascot, you couldn’t rule out, but if I was put under pressure, I’d say he’d be an autumn horse.”
His St Leger win looks better as time goes by with Crystal Ocean, Stradivarius and Rekindling all coming up trumps. Not that many races they could aim him at either
Not the worst shout Botchy! Fairly flexible on the going, and not impossible it’ll end up soft on the day….
Saxon Warrior will shorten a lot after the Irish Derby, providing he wins…not sure Ham you’re 100% right that he flat out doesn’t stay. I guess we will find out more on this soon. If he wins though the Arc will very much be on the calendar for them.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!It’s quite easy to knock 33/1 shots in the biggest race of the year 😉
Not really Kev, of course there are going to be negatives with a 33/1 shot. But think I’ve demonstrated there are so many negatives for Laurens; negatives adding up to make 33/1 a poor price… And this 33/1 shot’s value can be judged against other horses at lower prices. eg Crystal Ocean, Poets Word and Saxon Warrior all available at 14/1 (6.7%) and 33/1 is 2.9%. If there were two Laurens’s, 2 X 2.9 = 5.8 practically 16/1 (5.9%)… With 14/1 obviously only slightly less than 16/1. But I’d estimate Crystal Ocean, Poets Word and Saxon Warrior as all currently having at least three times the chance of Laurens. When I think so many horses are better value it’s not that they are value at all – it’s that I think Laurens is particularly poor value. But it’s only opinions and others may see their chances differently.
She also only does enough in her races, so is never going to win by lengths.
That’s possible, but is one possible positive in amongst imo a hell of a lot of negatives; and not as if it’s a definite. Am sure her attitude helps her keep in front. Whether that is “only does enough”? May be, may be not. Didn’t do enough in the 1000 Guineas and her form in her last four races can be rated very similarly, so it could also be that’s as good as she is. If going up against better quality fillies in the Irish Oaks we should find out.
She’s a big girl, she’ll still be growing
She is big, “still growing”? Upwardly I doubt it, although possible she’s still filling her frame. There are though two types of “big”; one is the still developing type, the other a fully grown fully developed one. Saxon Warrior is very definitely the former. Not so sure on Laurens. I’d expect some improvement, but not the amount needed to win an average Arc.Value Is EverythingGinge, would Forever Together fit the description above?
I see she is a very late foal as well. Gives me hope she has a fair amount of potential for improvement.
Can see your thinking there, Bobby.
Am pretty sure she’s a good filly but how good? On distances back to the rest she’s very good, capable of holding her own against the colts. It’s just she was the only one of the field who came up (what proved on the day) a golden highway – up the rail. So it’s possible distances back to the second and third flatter her. Fourth Magic Wand palpably didn’t act on the soft ground as well. But Forever Together did it well, is progressing so is on my short-list. If not having those golden highway doubts then on form 20/1 is a good price. But will she run? Trouble is Coolmore fillies targets often depend on their colts. Primarily Saxon Warrior and Kew Gardens, but also others that may show improved form in the interim.Personally I don’t like backing a Coolmore filly ante-post against colts unless they don’t have a standout colt (I did back Found ante-post). If having a 5/1 colt the lads aren’t going to chance their filly spoiling the colt’s stud fee. So if Saxon Warrior wins the Irish Derby well then I doubt Forever Together will be going for the Arc. If SW is beaten or just scrapes home then Forever Together running in the Arc becomes much more likely (on ground with give). So personally I’m at least waiting until after the Irish Derby even if (by then) taking a lower price.
Too much kudos is imo given on TRF to be the person with the biggest price about a horse. Ante-post non-runner losers ruin the value achieved with other horses. ie If backing three 20/1 shots for one or three races ante-post and only one turns up… The one 20/1 shot that turns up is actually equivalent to a day of race punter taking 6/1.
Stamina is certainly her forte and imo would be an even better St Leger candidate if given the chance. But for the same reason I think her target will depend on whether one or more good St Leger male prospects come to the fore. Kew Gardens impressive this week is now joint favourite for Doncaster, if running well in his trial will probably be their main representitive. They also have an abundance of stamina three year olds.
Value Is EverythingI have been lured back in again.
Let’s hope it is a slightly more successful return than last time although to be fair Flattering did contract 21 points in a couple of days with a totally duff jockey on board.
Anyway, as someone who has also taken the 33/1 Laurens I thought I needed to put in a good word for her.
Personally, I think she is at least twice the price she should be. The price is clearly relative to the presumed opposition. What is out there that is so frightening? Last year’s winner, Enable, would clearly be a massive threat but it guesswork as to whether she will return in the same form? Take her out and what else is there? In three runs Cracksman has beaten a pacemaker, Crystal Ocean looks no more than solid and I am not sure if the Derby form is anything special. My guess would be that it is someway short of special. A filly might well be better than the colts at a mile so why not over middle distances as well?
Laurens has won five races, none by more than a neck. That to me would suggest that she only does enough and that quality would make her very difficult to rate accurately. At this stage there is nothing to suggest that she couldn’t beat supposedly better opposition by a neck as well. Clearly she has a very good attitude, ground doesn’t appear a problem and she settles and races prominently. The jock is inexperienced at the top table but other than that I am struggling see any negatives.
Laurens has won five races, none by more than a neck. That to me would suggest that she only does enough and that quality would make her very difficult to rate accurately.
Good point Stilvi, tbh hadn’t realised it was every victory being won by so little. May be I’ve done Laurens a bit of a diservice (only a bit). Suppose it may be she only does enough, but if able to do significantly better (as she needs to to win an Arc) why did she not win the Guineas (beaten when showing similar form to Saint Alary and Diane)? Granted Derby form isn’t special, but it is a long way in front of the Diane… There’s also plenty of progressive horses that could yet improve in to an average Arc winner, some with possible potential to be above average Arc winners. So wouldn’t think it’ll be a below standard Arc just yet. In all probability the only does enough trait will need to bring about form considerably better than shown so far. It’s also not as if she doesn’t travel well through races. You might like to look at the early stages of the Diane, Stilvi; where she’s quite free racing out wide/not leading. Able to race prominently in recent starts, if there are pacemakers in future races (particularly at 12f) do you think she’ll settle racing in behind pacemakers?
btw Great to have you back aboard.
Value Is EverythingThanks but not so sure making two posts (three now) is the equivalent of being back.
Rather than a negative I would suggest a second in a Guineas is a positive, particularly first time out. The trip would almost certainly have been short of her best. Would Enable have been second in a Guineas? I doubt it.
I would prefer to say she was enthusiastic in the early stages of the Diane, certainly not out of hand. It didn’t stop her finishing off the race. I can only see a pacemaker as being a benefit.
Stamina is certainly her forte and imo would be an even better St Leger candidate if given the chance. But for the same reason I think her target will depend on whether one or more good St Leger male prospects come to the fore. Kew Gardens impressive this week is now joint favourite for Doncaster, if running well in his trial will probably be their main representitive. They also have an abundance of stamina three year olds.
Suspect The Lads have made a decision about the St Leger this morning, with a three pronged attack. Kew Gardens, Delano Roosevelt and Southern France all shortening in the market and Forever Together on the drift right out to 33/1 on betfair. So imo a decision on backing Forever Together for the Arc can be made after the Irish Derby.
Value Is EverythingI would prefer to say she was enthusiastic in the early stages of the Diane, certainly not out of hand. It didn’t stop her finishing off the race.
True, being enthusiastic it didn’t stop her finishing off a race with a positional advantage on a sound surface at 1m2f. Much bigger chance of not finishing off so well showing such enthusiasm in a race with a greater test of stamina (softer surface at 1m4f).
Was Laurens even the filly with most intrinsic ability? imo Musis Amica’s poor temperament probably cost her the Diane. Downing tools and detached right out the back before finally relenting and finishing very strongly – just failing by a neck in a race where pace disadvantaged those held up.
Value Is EverythingI would rather back a horse with a willing attitude rather than one who might have more ability but is something of a liability. Not sure the pace (it was a decent time) did disadvantage those at the back. Having not been engaged in the prolonged battle for the lead I think the Godolphin filly was flattered to finish so close. I wouldn’t contemplate backing her to reverse the form.
On the line Laurens was going away from the horses she had been battling with. It isn’t a given that she will stay further but she shapes like a horse who would benefit from the step up in distance. The Yorkshire Oaks should provide a guide.
I would rather back a horse with a willing attitude rather than one who might have more ability
I wouldn’t contemplate backing her to reverse the form.
Totally agree, Stilvi. Musis is a dog (or the female equivalent) and such animals are imo rarely worth a bet. Point I was trying to make is Laurens beat a horse that has a poor temperament (difficult to win with). Laurens won’t always be racing against that type of horse so won’t always have that advantage or the positional advantage.
First and third prominent throughout. First five home separated by just 1 1/2 lengths. If the run of the race didn’t have something to do with that, then surely they can’t all be good? Of those first five home only Musis raced in the second half of the field early and she came from a detached position.
Value Is EverythingThe only one I’m interested in at this stage at a big price is Sea Of Class at 50/1.
As of yet, nothing but her strands out at a price I’d want at this early stage with no idea on the ground or if Enable will be fully fit.
Happily was far from prominent after Ryan let her drift back and finished up close, Ginge?
Couldn’t agree more with everything Stilvi said.
Didn’t say Happily was “prominent”, Kev. I said bar Musis the first five home all raced in the first half of the field and fact is that includes Happily.
Value Is EverythingSo she wasn’t prominent but still gained advantage from being ‘in the first half’? Some pernickety stuff to tip against a 33/1 shot
Seems as if you’re the one who’s “pernickity”, Kev; picking out the fourth horse.
Any price has to be judged if it is value – including 33/1. Which is why I’ve noted so many negatives.
Am just demonstrating that in all probability Musis Amica was disadvantaged. ie Those ridden more to the front of the field (like Laurens) had an advantage over those ridden towards the back of the field (like the second Musis A). Of course it’s all relative, Happily didn’t have such a big advantage because she was shuffled back to mid-div, but – the way the race was run – imo Happily also had a slight advantage over Musis Amica. Whether Musis Amica will ever be able to ever show how much she was disadvantaged, doubtful with her suspect attitude.
Don’t get me wrong, Laurens is a filly I adore – great attitude – but sentiment has no relevence in betting. Just don’t think she’s atall value for this race. I’d love to be proved wrong though and good luck to those who’ve backed her.
Value Is Everything
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