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Wednesday 27 August
ANY FAV
Doctor Parkes@13/8 won 2nd race
Profit £11.25
Bank £10,691.02
ANY FAV NON H’CAP UP TO 9 RUNNERS
Ivory Suite@5/2 won 1st raceProfit £25.00
Bank £765.12
Thanks for the messages of support.
Thnks also to Atermis for posting the results.Nicholas has had a stroke and has begun a course of treatment.
He went into Royal Sussex County hospital last Friday the doctors there thought he had migrane and sent him home although he was unstable on his feet and we had to use a wheelchair to get him to our car.
He was worse Saturday so again the ambulance was called to take him to the hospital again.
He was given a ‘capscan’ which is basically a brain scan and the consultant still was unsure of the results so they contacted Hurstwood Park hospital which is the specialist neurological hosptital.They wanted him in straight away they first thought he may have ‘water on the brain’ which is water around the brain building up and causing intense pain as the brain is being pushed around.
They also found a legion on his brain and were prepared to operate on his brain to remove the water and to cut away the legion.They had a conference before this risky operation and decided to undertake further tests.
They sent a camera from his groin through his body to his brain to watch the blood movements around his brain by using a dye.They know think the water and the legion are both results of the stroke and that the body will dilute the excessive water around his brain and that the legion will reduce in time.
He is a little unstable when walking but part from that he seems fine.
The staff and the hospital have been marvellous and there are many walking around after having brain operations. Most go home within 2 weeks.
The last few days have been very worrying but he seems much better now. They are still investigating why he had a stroke at his age.
The Big Brother winner Pete who has tourettes his been visting his band member from Daddy Fantastic who had a brain operation and the place has been in turmoil due to Petes antics.
He was sent home the first day as he was causing uproar and even some of the elderly patients were calling out ‘******’ as he was walking and dancing around.
He returned yesterday with a very large box of chocolates which he was distrubuting to nurses and patients.
Really sorry to hear your son is unwell, Seagull!
They seem to be on top of the problem now, but it must be very worrying and quite a shock.
‘Tis true we don’t know what’s around the corner: makes that old boy’s fav backing achievement even more remarkable, given just how unpredictable life can be, imo.
May your son get stronger everyday!
Seagull,
Glad to hear that things are looking brighter. Your son is in good hands and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t make a full recovery in time.
I had brain surgery in 1991 and after a spell of convalescence, I was fine.
I’ll carry on posting the results until you feel ok to resume.
Thursday 27 August
ANY FAV
Bold Account@3/10 won 1st race
Profit £1.50
Bank £10,692.52
ANY FAV NON H’CAP UP TO 9 RUNNERS
Happy Anniversary won 1st race@1/1
Profit £10
Bank £775.12
.
Only just saw this now.
Very sorry to hear that your son is sick Seagull and hope he makes a full and speedy recovery.
Thanks Artemis for posting the results in Seagull’s absence.
Friday 29 August
ANY FAV
Mythical Blue won 1st race@15/8
Profit £9.37
Bank £10,701.89
ANY FAV NON H’CAP UP TO 9 RUNNERS
Time Control won 1st race@2/9
Profit £2.22
Bank £777.34
Artemis
Thanks again for up dating results.I am back at home as my son is waiting for a bed in the stroke unit at Royal Sussex County hospital.
However I just dont feel up to doing results at present but hopefully will resume in a week.
The last week has been horrific and I never realised before what exellent work the Neurological hospital at Husrtwood Park undertake.
Whilst my son is making a slight progress there is a boy of 21 in there on a life support machine after suffering one blow on the head whilst out celebrating a family birthday.
He apparently felt ill the following morning and went into a coma.His family have had to move into a hotel in order to undertake round the clock support.
The person who attacked him is already on licence as he has just been released from prison and has been given bail for this attack!
So it puts life in perspective and a losing day betting bears no resemblence to what true pain and suffering is!
Cormack,
The reason averages don’t work is that they only exist in theory, rather like the family with 2.5 children.
The average price for favs is fairly consistent at around 7/4(0.36 probability), but the range that produces this mean figure is between 1 to 4(0.80) and 8 to 1(0.11). I have always assumed – assume makes an ass out of u and me – that any random sequence of favs would perform theoretically the same as the mean value for favs. But, in this case, the mean, although it does clearly exist, does not occur often enough to be a reliable guide to the whole population of values. I’m afraid my maths won’t go much further than basic statistics, but the article I read basically said that maths cannot make any safe or scientific predictions in such cases and we have to rely on intuition and observation.
My take on this is that if single bets on favourites are a bad bet, which plainly they are because they have been unprofitable* since the first bet was ever struck, then logically any sequence of bets on favourites is a bad bet. Both intuition and observation would lead me to the same conclusion.
This bird cannot fly…….but look!
It soars above us, mocking gravity that would bring it back to earth.* edit: people can and do win on favourites by being very selective and also betting only at certain times and over limited periods. In the long run, the regular indescriminate favourite backer cannot win.
Hi Artemis
May i ask what your thoughts are in relation to the vdw ability rating being compiled of an average prize money.Would you say it does exist or notThank you
PaulPaul
There have been extensive discussions about VDW on several threads over the past few years. Not being a ‘devotee’ of VDW, my contributions to the debate have been limited.
My opinion on average prize money, since you ask, is that is a fairly rough statistic and can give an indication of the class of race a horse has successfully competed in. But, like all averages it can be misleading because prize money for many races is not proportionate to the class of horse competing. The Grand National is worth more in prize money than most top chases and sales races for 2yos are more valuable than most Group races.
I wouldn’t want to get into a debate about it because most people who use it are well aware of its limitations.
Saturday 30 August
ANY FAV
The first 9 clear favourites lost
Loss £2,555.00
Bank £8,146.89
CORRECTION:
Including Irish racing, which I had omitted, the 2.45 at Killarney was the 9th race and was won by the 9/4 fav which yields a profit of £1,605 on the day. We have to assume that Mark decided on backing in only one of the available 2.35 races(sandown and Dundalk – both lost)
Profit £1605
Bank £12,306.89
ANY FAV NON H’CAP UP TO 9 RUNNERS
Full Toss won 2nd race @4/6
Profit £3.34
Bank £780.68
I was rather hoping this losing sequence of 9, which has been avoided for nearly 9 months wouldn’t happen on my ‘watch’, having been so critical of the system. There were two joint favs that won which might have saved the day, but the system does specify clear favs only. Still plenty in the tank, though.
I was rather hoping this losing sequence of 9, which has been avoided for nearly 9 months wouldn’t happen on my ‘watch’, having been so critical of the system. There were two joint favs that won which might have saved the day, but the system does specify clear favs only. Still plenty in the tank, though.
Just a precautionary note Artemis, as you more than most will realise how imperative it is to get each and every stage of a real time test of volatile ‘chance’ sequence correct. Otherwise the whole thing is meaningless.
Have you remembered to include Irish racing, as I’m pretty sure the ‘old boy’ plays them?
I haven’t actually checked the sequence of races on a busy Saturday, so it may well have been after the ninth race, but the 2.45 at Killarney was won by a 9/4 clear fav
On the subject of the fallacy of averages, this may be of interest:
Artemis, thanks for keeping us updated during Seagull’s absence but, sorry if I’ve missed this, where does stopping after 9 losers come from?
Anyway, the 10 losing run seems based on an the error that in the 2.25 at Newton Abbot one of the joint favourites was backed and was a losing bet. If this race hadn’t been played (as is the system) the following would be correct:
Race 1 – 1.40 Ripon – Lost
Race 2 – 2.05 Sandown – Lost
Race 3 – 2.10 Ripon – Lost
Race 4 – 2.15 Killarney – Lost
Race 5 – 2.20 Chester – Lost
2.25 Newton Abbot – Joint favs – No Bet[/color:17247org]
Race 6 – 2.35 Sandown – Lost
Race 7 – 2.35 Dundalk – Lost
Race 8 – 2.40 Ripon – Lost
Race 9 – 2.45 Killarney – £1280 @ 9/4 returns £1605.00 profitThat’s my reading of the system
Seagull, sorry to hear about your lad and hope it all works out ok.
I have heard very good reports
of that particular hospital Seagull
and set in a green hollow.
It must be a comfort to know
he is in good hands.As for the losing sequence
I came
I sadly destroyed.The Dark ‘een
has wider tentacles
than the devil’s toilet brush.
Good luck
with me attached.
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