An old boy I know swears this one makes money.

[Seagull]

Wed 20 Aug

ANY FAV
Celt won 1st race @4/9
profit on day £2.22
bank £9,920.09

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Roby De Cimbre won 1st race @1/4
profit on day £2.50
bank £690.85

[Seagull]

Thursday 21 Aug

ANY FAV
Ethaara won 3rd race @5/4
profit on day £10.00
bank £9,930.22

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Ethaara won 2nd race @5/4
profit on day £15.00
bank £705.85

[Seagull]

Friday 22 Aug

ANY FAV
Lush Lashes won 6th race @evens
profit on day £5.00

bank £9,935.22

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Lush Lashes won 1st race @evens
profit on day £10.00

bank £715.85

[Seagull]

Sat 23 Aug

ANY FAV
Drill Sergeant won 4th race @11/4

profit on day £75.00

Bank £10,010.75

ANY FAV NON HAN TO 9 RUNNERS
Ravens Pass won 3rd race @1/2
loss on day £10.00

bank £705.85.

Well despite all our misgivings I am glad for Mark that he has achieved over £10,000 profit so far.

I phoned him this morning to ask if he celebrated last night reaching £10k and he said there was not much on televison so he went to bed early!

Maths dept
So far this year there has been 235 days racing excluded Good Friday
Average profit per day £42.43.

[Artemis]

Remarkable, how this simple system is still going when probability theory says it really shouldn’t be.
Interestingly, I was reading something the other day on another subject and the author, a mathematician and economist suggested that using averages(which I tend to do) to make predictions about events is not good science. I believe someone did mention this danger much earlier on the thread. I’m still rather puzzled by the success of this method and I keep an open mind on it.

Well done to you, Seagull, for chronocling this story and keeping it alive and also keeping us entertained..

[halfwaytoheaven]

Seagull, I’ve skipped from the first page to the last here as I’m new to this part of the forum…

Am I right in reading here that over the course of the system youve won 10k?

Dan

[cormack15]

Quote –
"economist suggested that using averages(which I tend to do) to make predictions about events is not good science."

Did he/she say why?

[Wallace]

Some wise person once said; "The flaw of averages states, plans based on assumptions that average conditions will occur are usually wrong."

In my experience averages are only a crude indicator. Lots of really useful data are often hidden by the average.

The performance of Mark’s simple system has been impressive so far and throws up lots of questions as to why the system seems to be beating the market.

[Seagull]

Halfwaytoheaven

Yes my friend is up over £10k since Jan 1st despite all our reservations.
It would be easier for you to read through some of the posts rather than me re write everything but everything he does has been covered including him getting banned twice this year.

Sun 24 Aug
ANY FAV
Crystal Capella won 8 th race @2/1

profit on day £645.00

bank £10,655.27

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Golden Bishop won 2nd race @5/4
profit on day £15.00

bank £720.85

Can anyone such as David Brady or Artemis please add the totals for the next few days.

My son was taken into Royal Sussex County Hospital on Saturday they have found swelling on his brain and he has been taken overnight( 2am Monday) to Hurstwood Park which is a neurological hospital in Haywards Heath.

We cannot see him until 10 am Monday.

Although it is not far away my partner and I will be staying in Haywards Heath all the time he is there.Just booked a hotel room an hour ago.

Been up all night worried out my mind the consultant think he has contracted menigitis but until they do further tests on his brain they cannot start any treatment for menigitis.

rgds,

[Artemis]

Seagull,

I hope everything is alright with your lad. Very worrying and puts everything else into perspective..

David usually does the totals in your absence, but I will update if he doesn’t.

[Artemis]

Cormack,

The reason averages don’t work is that they only exist in theory, rather like the family with 2.5 children.

The average price for favs is fairly consistent at around 7/4(0.36 probability), but the range that produces this mean figure is between 1 to 4(0.80) and 8 to 1(0.11). I have always assumed – assume makes an ass out of u and me – that any random sequence of favs would perform theoretically the same as the mean value for favs. But, in this case, the mean, although it does clearly exist, does not occur often enough to be a reliable guide to the whole population of values. I’m afraid my maths won’t go much further than basic statistics, but the article I read basically said that maths cannot make any safe or scientific predictions in such cases and we have to rely on intuition and observation.

My take on this is that if single bets on favourites are a bad bet, which plainly they are because they have been unprofitable* since the first bet was ever struck, then logically any sequence of bets on favourites is a bad bet. Both intuition and observation would lead me to the same conclusion.

This bird cannot fly…….but look!
It soars above us, mocking gravity that would bring it back to earth.

* edit: people can and do win on favourites by being very selective and also betting only at certain times and over limited periods. In the long run, the regular indescriminate favourite backer cannot win.

[Artemis]

Monday 25 August

ANY FAV

Advertise won 2nd race @9/4

Profit on day £17.50

Bank £10,672.77

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Maidstone Mixture won 1st race@8/11
Profit on day £7.27

Bank £728.12

[gamble]

Your deductions are spot on Artemis.
Recent successes of favourites have hit
Ladbrokes profit of course.
If this system were to buck the trend
and people started investing in it,
that in itself would effect its profitability.

Well done to Seagull for an enterprising
and nicely played out thread.

[Artemis]

Tuesday 26 August

ANY FAV

Fazbee won 2nd race@6/5

Profit £7.00

Bank £10679.77

ANY FAV NON H’CAP UP TP 9 RUNNERS

Fazbee won 1st race@6/5

Profit £12.00

Bank £740.12

[gamble]

Had only cast a lazy eye over this thread
and missed the most important.

Thoughts are with you Seagull

[Matron]

I have only just picked-up on this thread again as I spotted a posting by Gamble of which is unusual.

Sorry, to hear about your son Seagull and do hope he is on the mend.

Regards – Matron

[dave jay]

I hope things work out for your boy Seagull.

[Author]

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