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Though I’ll bow to your more local knowledge, Maxi, I’ll rely on the chain-harrow they use in milder conditions to make enough difference to stymie those 2.
16.50 Kempton
Three horses make a quick reappearance in this Banded event, after stretching their legs in the 4.l5 Banded contest last night at the same venue.
Tyrannosaurus Rex
must be the best handicapped horse in the country, finishing 2nd off 77 in a Haydock sprint in July 2009. Yesterday, he ran reasonably well off 49. 14/1 in places – might be a furlong too far, but is too well handicapped to ignore.
Black Baccara
led briefly yesterday before weakening. Has the plot draw today and man of the moment Adam Kirby is booked to do the steering once more. Probably better over today’s six furlongs too.
Jemimaville
was completely unsuited by the drop to five yesterday, running on strongly in the final furlong. I fancy this one strongly and she is a decent price of around 8/1, following the bookmaker-saving withdrawal of no-hoper Royal Acclamation. This season’s AW virtuoso Luke Morris steers.
I’m sure the winner will come from one of these three horses, plus
Woodsley House,
who finished close up in the 2004 Horris Hill (behind Cupids Glory) a potential improver for a move to the Rimmer yard.
Best of luck.
Pension job again today. Apologies for no write up
300S The Lock Master Alt Ubenkor
400S Final Salute Alt Gold Story
450K Song Of Praise Alt Metropolitan Chief
520K Collect Art Alt Peadar Miguel
550K Mays Boy Alt Odin
620K Zebrano Alt Tuxedo
720K Nollaig Shona Alt SherjawyPension job again today. Apologies for no write up
300S The Lock Master Alt Ubenkor
400S Final Salute Alt Gold Story
450K Song Of Praise Alt Metropolitan Chief
520K Collect Art Alt Peadar Miguel
550K Mays Boy Alt Odin
620K Zebrano Alt Tuxedo
720K Nollaig Shona Alt SherjawyPeadar Miguel looks particularly interesting. Dropped 13 lbs after a sequence of ‘quiet’ runs.
230L Archie Rice
330L Dilys Maud Alt Ocean Of Peace
400L Decider Alt Sleepy Blue Ocean
410W Double Carpet
440W Almaty Express Alt Itsthursdayalready
510W Ajara Alt MethaalyCheers Max. Would have been really nice if Dilys Maud had prevailed but musn’t be greedy I guess. Don’t fancy much at Lingfield today however I might do a combination forecast and tricast on Riflessione, Gwilym & Tislaam in the 2.55. Franco Is My Name and The Which Doctor ought to fight out the finish in the last
Good luck
Back again!
The reason for not posting further selections from the trial is that I’ve spent some time analysing the data and crunching the numbers. In summary the ratings were far too complex leading to statistical noise. Also by including many variables the ratings became a mirror of the market.
Using statistics and multiple regression I’ve distilled the ratings down to three factors to determine relative ranking between horses. More importantly I fink these factors are undervalued by the punting massive and therefore have high wagering value to use a phrase by the respected author Mark Cramer. It also gives my tissue a different look and feel from the market which is good in my book.
I have also resurrected an approach that focuses purely on value bets as opposed to "fancies" in an attempted to become more objective and less subjective. You’ll see below the tissue includes "edge" and "bank" fields which represent how much value is being offered by the market and given that edge how much of my bank I should apportion (per the recommendations in the book "Money Secrets of the Racetrack"
Finally I’ve narrowed down the races I plan to study because of time pressures during the week. This will allow me more time to get into the guts of a single race. When time allows i.e. weekends I take a stab at other races.
Sunday 15th January – Southwell 3.35
[attachment=0:2mkp4ja2]3.35.png[/attachment:2mkp4ja2]
: 8yo, dropped in grade, loves Southwell
Everymanforhimself
: Stamina concerns?
Follow The Flag
: 7yo, win last time out, now running off highest BHA mark
Gala Casino Star
: 6-0 on All Weather surface, looks over rated
: Likes Southwell, high BHA mark?
Conry
: Ran well last time out, elevated in class high BHA mark
Tevez
: 6yo, high BHA mark
Prince Of Vasa
: Stamina issues
1st Everymanforhimself @ 11/4
Dubai Hills form is the key form anchor round here this year and everything looks in place for a big run from
Conry
in this one, Slippery, but best of luck with yours.
Not offering any of that 12/1 are you?
No account of the grade of Dubai’s race eh max? The great thing about making your own odds is that your pitting your wits against the market. If you get it right happy days. If you get it wrong your error is not compounded by laying the winner in your book
LMAO, Slippery.
I’ll send a cheque.I’ve just got back. Nothing like these four legged creatures to make you look foolish, is there? Shortest priced horse I’ve backed this year.
Another Hugh Taylor winner in this.
Great to see this thread still running – well done chaps! Having been away from TRF for a while, it’s been very interesting to flick through the 90-odd pages here, with some very good moments!
I’m kicking myself over Everymanforhimself yesterday having backed him against Dubai Hills the time before when I thought he might have had a chance of shaking up DH, and then talking myself out of backing him in yesterday’s heat…
Hope it’s ok to chip in with bits here and there. Today’s thought for the day has been around the woefully out-of-form Grayson yard… He seems to have been running horses left, right and centre (and mostly rear) over the last few weeks, and occasional glimpses of something resembling ‘improvement’ have been evident. With a yard now full of horses handicapped so well on their best form (or rated so lowly that any remaining or extant ability will see them getting competitive), there must be a very real chance of a winner at some point soon…
RENESMEE
in the
2:50
at
Wolverhampton
at the huge price available.
This doesn’t look a strong race even for this moderate grade, and the likely favourite, Shutterbug, might not be as suited by this 6f, so I might also look at Scommetrice and Torteval as interesting runners here.
Some quick thoughts on tomorrows offering at Wolves
220 A claimer here and the two I like are Rievaulx World and Lewyn. RW would have a chance if reproducing his C&D run LTO in September. The break since then would be a concern however. The one for me is Lewyn. All her wins have been on the course and she has ben running reasonably well of late. The small field shouldn’t be a problem either.
250 Magic Stella would have a chance here off top weight. A course winner who shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the drop in trip. Mr Optimistic though is the choice. Running well of late he was a C&D winner two runs back.
320 Spin Again has filled the runner position the last twice over C&D and could go one better. A minus point would be that the trainer hasn’t had a winner for a good while so I’m going to chance topweight Tourist. Winning off 82 this time last year over C&D he’s now off 75.
350 I can’t see beyond Cape Melody and would have her the best bet of the day if fit to do her self justice after a short lay off. Has run well all three tries over the course and will do for me.
520 Irish Jugger won over C&D before finishing 3rd behind recent winner Lingfield Bound. Should go well today. The choice however is Love In The Park who ran well enough three times over the course before Christmas. Has a jockey I like in Jack Mitchell on board who has a decent strike rate at the course.
Best of luck
Tuesday 18th January
Wolverhampton 15:20
[attachment=0:2vg7c72s]15.20.png[/attachment:2vg7c72s]
Contenders
Lake Chini
: well rated, but 3lbs out of the handicap
Elhamri
: 7yo, high BHA
Spin Again
: won seller last time out, poor overall strike rate
Perlachy
: 7yo, hgh BHA
230L Freddies Girl Alt Even Bolder
410L Mr Skipiton Alt Loyal Royal
430K Holyfield Warrior Alt Cane Kat
530K Gallantry Alt Hip Hip Hooray
600K Carter Alt Suhailah
730K Itsthursdayalready Alt Valentino Swing
800K Goodbye CashBest of Luck
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