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No half measures in finding that Short Cut, Mr Toad. Another good bet.
Good luck tonight, Tb.
To avoid accusations of aftertiming, I think Madison Du Berlais is the nap of the day – if not the season – in the day’s momentous twighopper. What can beat it?
Old fashioned punters will be stringing long lines of leafy Lingfield jollies in their pre-match accas today and they could collect a tidy sum too, at a track where bookmakers regularly leave vowing never again, but the best race of the day for the value hunter is the Class 3 1m Conditions nightcap (17.25).
Abbodanza has a good record fresh, at Lingfield, over a mile, and could get loose on the lead in a race full of hold up animals. He’s best in at the weights by some way.
Trouble is, he’s short in the market, he’s not pulled up any trees since last spring and N Wilson is taking his time to get to know the Semple gallops so I’m going to take him on. Advanced, one of my favourite horses of all time, is layable at a mile. Dalradian often follows one good race with a shocker. The game Carcinetto has her 103rd run but generally struggles to win. Ditto Red Somerset.
Stef Liddiard’s
My Best Bet
loves Lingfield and is a sporting massive priced bet for those wanting a wager instead of another lager…
…but the winner of the race is
Raptor.
Third run after a break for new yard after leaving the tainted Burke operation:Winston rides again. A mile is his optimum trip, he can handle small fields and tellingly,has proved best in conditions events, generally struggling in handicaps where the competition is at its most fearsome.
Raptor was eye catching over a trip too far last time behind Dalradian, only fading in the final furlong after travelling extremely well. Winston rides and on old form (once rated 102), has a massive chance against some of these, including Abbodanza.
Best of luck.
Agreed Max, Madison must have a great chance in the Racing Post chase.
Not to friendly a card at Lingfield
most markets look quite accurateDo like
Peak District
in the 3.15
3.50 May throw some money at Mullionmileanhour, looked promising as a 2yo, obviously a long absence but he could be anything and Arganil is always woth opposing at 6f though passing Jaconet could be a problem?!
4.20 I actually think the 4/5 / 1.8 floating about on Gitano Hernando is a fair price. I was 4/5 on him personally, but not a bet as it stands. Mister Green could make the 3 but not happy with playing him at 16/1.
- Total Posts 17716
Mullionmileanhour was due to return in last year’s Nunthorpe, tbracing, and from what I remember – he was mentioned during a brief conversation I had with Jon Best’s secretary when enquiring about the availability of a horse they had advertised for sale – connections were reasonably confident about his chances.
He’s obviously had problems and rates as a risky betting proposition as a result, but he’s got plenty of ability, was hugely impressive on his debut two years ago and is unlikely to be found wanting for fitness.
Lingfield 3.15
Glamorous Spirit 10/3
Peak District 4/1
Even Bolder 4/1
Step It Up 9/1
Stolt 9/1
Colorus 14/1
Thoughtsofstardom 25/1Going out on a limb as I feel Peak District’s drop in class is negative along with a poor win strike rate. Plenty of pace in the race the positive being a proportion drawn low which will allow front runner
Glamorous Spirit
to drop in and pounce when the early pace collapses in the final furlong. Then again the scenario above may not pan out
. Even Bolder is not out of it though..Lingfield 3:50
Jaconet even
Arganil 6/1
Ebraam 8/1
Bel Cantor 14/1
Green Manalishi 14/1
Smarten Die 28/1
Brunelleschi 50/1
Mullionmileanhour 100/1Jaconet
looks solid.. no bet
Lingfield 4:20
Gitano Hernando 10/11
Yahrab 4/1
Suits Me 9/1
Mister Green 18/1
Baylini 28/1
Victoria Sponge 33/1
Confidentiality 50/1
Mesa Marauder 100/1Gitano Hernando looks rock solid but a Group 1 penalty and 140 day course absence "may" make him vulnerable. At the prices I’m prepared to find out with
Yahrab
and possibly Suit’s Me who will get the run of the race so can run to suit.
Lingfield 4.55
Elna Bright 2/1
Mahadee 4/1
Tourist 13/2
Ishiadancer 8/1
Seek The Fair Land 9/1
Kyllachy Star 9/1Elana Bright
looks legitimate.. 20%/80% win place
For the adventurous types
1. Glamorous Spirit
2. Yahrab
3. Jaconet
4. Elna Bright
Lucky 15Nice bet on Glamorous Spirit, Mr Toad.
Tb, it was only after I looked for reasons why Madison ran so appallingly that I bothered to look at Pipe’s trainerform. 1-30 and no winners in the past two weeks. That’s the kind of basic information any punter should know. Kicking myself a bit.
After the horse from the average Knight band took the last, I was left to pick up the pieces. Still, I fancy Raptor to triumph at a big price before the end of the season. 1m 1f at Wolver? I wonder…
Nice to see Gitano Hernando win well. Done as he should against that field but is a promising horse.
Some smart performances on the whole but what is left for them? There are clearly many horses in this country who are better on a synthetic surface but have little to aim for now.
That pesky Pipe, I think that was Piraya i expect Max, lucky for me I backed him at Warwick
. I didn’t have a bet in the Racing Post chase in the end. Bloody thing was done to death by the time Saturday came around!!Pretty quiet Saturday in all!
Nice to see Gitano Hernando win well. Done as he should against that field but is a promising horse.
Yep.. As Mr Coleman said he "
opened his legs and showed his class
"
Kempton 3.55
Priti Fabulous 11/4
Ray Of Joy 10/3
Last Sovereign 5/1
Sunshine Always 13/2
Cut And Thrust 10/1
Kipchak 10/1
Carmenero 20/1
Millfields Dreams 28/1A couple of negatives against Last Sovereign which makes the race playable. If returning to form at a distance he likes
Priti Fabulous
is fair value in my book.
Ray Of Joy
form screams 6 furlongs, however in a classless field and with Kipchak ensuring a good pace, he may be able to ration his energy distribution effectively to pick off tiring runners in the final furlong. The opposite logic is that the form book is right and his tank empties out. A speculative punt at good odds
a. Priti Fabulous
b. Ray Of Joy
c. Kipchak
d. Cut And ThrustA
over
BCD
exacta (3 lines)
Kempton 3.55
however in a classless field and with Kipchak ensuring a good pace,
yeah.. so much so he won the race..
Pension job again today
230W Withnail looks an interesting one here on his first start For Stef Liddiard. A winner over 6F at Dundalk before running OK over 5F at the same venue. If fit enough could pinch this. Spoof Master doesn’t win many but is running reasonably consistently and can pick up the forecast spot
500W Metal Guru invariably runs well here and is a pound higher than his last winning mark. The draw is a bit of a concern but at 16/1 is a decent EW shout. Another big price runner Monsieur Reynard has yet to win on the AW but is more than capable of finishing in the runner up spot as he did against the selection in October. Almaty Express would make these all go if back to his best and earns the tricast spot
530W I’m quite sweet on the chance of Carnivore in this one if he can lay a little closer to the pace. Dean Heslop takes off a useful 5lb and at 10/1 looks an EW must. Arachnophobia won over C&D in April but has raced mainly at Kempton since. Although steadily climbing the weights the gelding is really consistent and should run well on his first visit back
545K Hawaana is a strong fancy for me in this. Ran well over C&D in December and was left with a lot to do over C&D last time when not really getting in to it. If lying a little closer tonight should win. Rapid City is a consistent sort and was placed LTO over C&D and gets the forecast vote
645K I’m going for Valentino Swing who has a couple of C&D wins to his name over the last couple of months and with his hold up style of running may not have finished winning yet. Whiskey Junction is a C&D winner who ran well after a break LTO and may give VS most to do.
745K Thunderball ran well over C&D in October before winning over the distance at Lingfield. Tried again over 10F LTO but is much better over the mile and can go in at a nice price. Vainglory has run well in some competitive races of late and rates as the biggest danger.
Good luck all
Kempton 6.45
Whiskey Junction @ 4/1
Todber @ 11/2
Welcome Approach @ 11/2Kempton 7.45
Vainglory @ 5/2
Jesse James @ 11/2250S Whooshka
355S Bel Cantor Alt Onceuponatime
430S Mr Funshine
600W Stand Guard Alt Thunderstruck
730W Royal Acclamation Alt Ride A White Swan
800W Chief Exec Alt Smalljohn
830W Alf Tupper Alt NaheellGood luck all
Cracking card at Wolverhampton today!
Wolverhampton 2.1
5 http://bit.ly/9rYUX7
My general rule for this time of year on the All Weather is to eliminate from consideration any horse that ran in the Dubai Carnival. My personal experience so far indicates that the form from Dubal does not translate, similar to that of Cheltenham form which rarely translates into a good run at Aintree a few weeks later.I relearned the lesson yesterday that Wolverhampton is a tight track and therefore draw berth is important. With that Mahadee has too be on the shortlist given his blistering form recently. The nagging doubt is that his recent wins were at Lingfield which is a different course configuration to the flat track of Wolverhampton. Can’t dismiss Redford who holds a group 3 entry in Ireland (turf) or Mia’s Boy who has a 126 day course absence but runs well fresh.
I’ll side with the value in a speculative punt on Souter´s Sister who looks the stranger in the field
Wolverhampton 3.25
http://bit.ly/92qPuc
The draw bias has been kind to the market leaders so there is a width of a fag paper difference between my opinion and the crowds. However with General Elliot out of the race, the pace is predicted to be slow and muddling. I smell and upset but I’ll cover myself just in caseSpinning and Black Dahlia
a. Fanunalter
b. Flipando
c. Spinning
d. Black Dahliaexacta: AB over CD (4 lines)
Wolverhampton 4.3
5 http://bit.ly/cNAwQl
I think we have a vulnerable favourite in Tiddliwinks given his wide draw. However THE big problem trying to find something to beat him. If there is the slightest of market drifts pre-race on Tiddliwinks then I’ll close my eyes for a point and shoot at Dubai Dynamo and maybe ThebesIts coming up to October.
Southwell’s October 5th meeting is the start of the AW season for me. Six months of hot sand action coming right up.
I think I’ve recruited a proper Southwell expert who actually
makes
a few quid.
Who’s playing this year?
3.30 Southwell.
Rowe Park
is undefeated over the sandpit’s Flying Five. Despite universal concerns, it is safe to assume that the horse will be fit enough, (has won after a six week break), the race is worth ten grand to the winner, and the opposition have flaws.
The favourite appears happy to be led where it matters, Fitz Flyer comes from a cold yard, I heard Mick Quinn himself say that the gallant Angus Newz hates Southwell and Cloth Ears appears overfaced. The danger is
Love Delta
who has Flying Five form figures of
1115
but has been off his game and comes from a frustrating yard.
The rest of the card is unfathomable, with seven possible winners of the 5f handicap (2.00), though
Grudge
, apparently unfancied and ignored by the press is
4141
at the venue and might be worth a shekel each way at a colossal price. May also be suited by the likely frenetic pace.
Compltely underestimated the McMahon horse here – seems to have improved out of all proportion. Steve Drowne hopped off Rowe Park and said to Linda Jewell that the horse blew up in the final furlong and a half and if he’d been severe, he would have finished second. Pick of the paddock today – one of the nicest heads on a horse I’ve seen recently.
Grudge was nibbled at but was seriously disadvantaged by the draw and was fundamentally outclassed. The seriously punted John Spearing horse missed the break and upset many locals. All three are worth noting for a return visit.
most markets look quite accurate
. Even Bolder is not out of it though..
. I didn’t have a bet in the Racing Post chase in the end. Bloody thing was done to death by the time Saturday came around!!
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