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Max/Slippy, good to hear you had a good day out.
Max, sorry to go on at you earlier. I was just a bit concerned. The truth is I’m only a fun/mug punter so it wasn’t really my place to say anything. However, this is one the threads that I do read regularly and I like to see people do well.
Pete
Spotted something that might be of interest in the 2.50 at Lingfield. Indian Skipper @20/1 has been running over five and six furlongs without success and now tries one mile with Jimmy Quinn aboard. Previously his runs over the longer distance have seemed to indicate improved performances. I can just picture him being brought into the action around the final bend but whether or not his stamina lasts out is the risk you might wish to consider.
KenKen, nice to see you on board. Unlike the Slippery one, I think that race has boilover written all over it – I’ve gone for Orpsie using the same logic.
Pete, as I said, you were bang on earlier. I’m a bit like a self-pitying doppelganger of Robbie Savage which is why I stopped playing football. You also said something to me which is going to really help in the next few months. You said that I have a romantic view of racing and that’s true. Bang on. Trouble is, there’s no place for romance in a game where exchange money calls the shots. Doing some thinking on that.
Best of luck everyone.
Lingfield 2.50
Mr Willis
7/2
Vainglory
15/2
Autumn Blades 8/1
Bar 9/1Edit
: Updated prices as their has been some interesting market movements..
Mr Willis 4/1
Vainglory 4/1
Autumn Blades 15/2Update 13:30
: No bet race for me now as the value has evaporated
Ken/Max 2v1 aint fair
Vainglory now 7/2 with Ladbrokes. Quite a move, Slippery, but will not deflect me from my hunch.
Suggest you have a saver on both Max’s and my selection, possibly throw them in a dual forecast; with Vainglory for the Tricast. Perhaps staking :-
£1,000 each way on Indian and Orpse.
£1,000 dual forecast and,
£1,000 tricast: Indian and Orpse (twist) and Vain for third.
Total outlay £7,000. You’ve got to speculate…..
Only needs Indian to be placed and you’ve almost got your money back.
But to cover yourself, lay Vain to win a further £7,000
Cheers
KenOh well, we can’t win ’em all. At least you got your money back by laying Vainglory!
Max quote: Mahadee may need the run but is the best horse in the race and Callan rides – a tasty combination.
Well spotted Max. Class tells.
KGuys, you’re too kind. I write hundreds of words of total nonsense and one decent sentence and you pick that out. I
love
this forum…
Seriously, Mahadee has got Lincoln/Spring Cup written all over it.
4.40 L At a pony, I can’t resist throwing a fiver each way on
Kalligal.
Though a twenty six race maiden, he has looked like a winner on several occasions. Drops from a maiden to a poor handicap, will be better for its comeback run, is down to a ridiculously low rating, will be suited by 6f – 5f is too short because he always comes up against specialists, and 7f is too far because he hasn’t the stamina. Better, he is drawn neatly in the centre and Roger Ingram’s staunch ally Rab Havlin rides. There have been nibbles.
For a saver,
Captain Kallis
was punted two runs ago over Southwell’s flying five as if the prospect of defeat was a laughable outcome. Baulked last time on the recovery mission. 10/1.
Best of luck, chaps.
Think Mahadee typifies the type of horse Max that needs a good AW programme, not the same horse on turf and not enough for him on the synthetic unfortunately, well not in the UK at least!
Southwell 4.20
Hits Only Jude 3/1
Total Impact 4/1
Westwood 9/2
Wyatt Earp 5/1
Peter’s Gift 13/2
Punching 14/1
(my tissue)Like Hits Only Jude for this, drops back to 6f and plenty of pace in the field and the drop in class could help. Consistent around here and almost always gives his running on the fibresand.
Total Impact gets stretched over 6f and with pace likely to come from Westwood, Peters Gift and Wyatt Earp I’m not confident he’ll get home. Though he probably has the most natural ability of the bunch after getting demolished by Grudge in a claimer LTO I’m not for taking a short chance.
Westwood looks pretty solid on the balance of his profile and should give a good account.
I’d be keeping stake minimal on
Hits Only Jude
in this race but does look worth an interest.
I thought that was easily the toughest race of the day, TB. I’ll probably pass. Wrote this last night, btw.
Thoughts for today:
1: 7f Maiden (Class 6) Steel Mask is a talking horse amongst the course regulars. A massive, green, ebony beast, one day it is all going to fall into place at a big price. Lady Brickhouse has been a little unlucky and can make the frame. The Barron horses need careful scrutiny: Be ready to run for cover.
2: 1m4f Seller (Class 6) Dunaskin does not win very often but this is his best chance this season, however Davana drops like a parachute in class and is a sporting price.
3: 2m Handicap (Class 5)
Victory Quest
(NB) is the only horse guaranteed to get the trip. Nakoma is a big danger for a stable carrying all before them
4: 6f Claimer (Class 6) Anjomarba and Il Forno are the only proven winners in this race and can fight out the finish.
5: 6f Handicap (Class 5) The tightest of the day and stakes should be kept to a minimum. All six horses have a serious chance. Westwood could get an easy lead and may be hard to peg back. Hits Only Jude loves Southwell and is poised for a massive run today.
6: 7f Handicap (Class 6)
Mocha Java
(NAP) is a confident selection. 17621 in Class 6 races over track and trip up against Southwell novices and trip experimenters. Nothing in the field can come close. Resplendent Nova should run on for exacta players. Fulford has been a standing dish this month but won’t have the petrol for 7f: Has electric pace. War and Peace is one for the future.
7: 1m Handicap (Class 6) Only two horses here like to force the pace. Fitzolini, who might not get the trip, is a fibresand novice, and is badly drawn, and
Captain Imperial
who is drawn to attack and could lead tomorrow. Once considered among Tom Tate’s best juveniles, he’s had three runs to get used to life at Robin Bastiman’s North Yorkshire yard. Once rated 76, now 56. Two runs at a mile have yielded two places and a single run at Southwell (a track where it is essential to be prominent), resulted in a second place in a novice stakes – a better class race than this. Big runs from Ruboftherelic and Where’s Killoran would not surprise.
Best of luck.
Hi again chaps.
I wrote that at about 7pm last night using no prices etc. I’ve just gone on to oddschecker. I expected Captain Imperial to be about 20/1 and its 7/2. When the Bastimans punt something, the yard punt like men. Couldn’t have it at that price though.
Kempton 7.10
Jessica Wigmo 4/1
Boldinor 11/2
Tamino 7/1
Short Cut 7/1
Hart Of Gold 15/2
Grand Palace 11/1
Muktasb 22/1
Spoof Master 22/1
Clearing Sky 33/1
Avoncreek 66/1The current market leader Muktasb is drawn wide which will make life difficult and therefore a playable race in my book
Jessica Wigmo and Tamino violate my rules reagrding beaten favourites so this side of the wire I’ll be looking to play
Boldinor
and
Short Cut
. But as Max knows its best to wait until near the off before weighing with my Exocets!
Bloody hell Slippery, you’re ambitous wanting 22/1 on Muktasb
Good luck with your plays though!
Bloody hell Slippery, you’re ambitous wanting 22/1 on Muktasb
Good luck with your plays though!
Yep, however the benefit of creating your own odds is that you don’t have to lay em (or offer e/w terms) unless you are playing on the exchanges..
Good stuff Slippery hope you had a wedge on Short Cut.
Wolverhampton 8.10
Love You Louis 2/1
Monte Major 6/1
Ridley Didley 8/1
Decider 8/1
Rabbit Fighter 10/1
Monsieur Reynard 10/1
Across The Sands 14/1
Interchoice Star 25/1
Town House 40/1
(my tissue)I’m pretty one sided on
Love You Louis
, was well involved last time he ran and a drop back to 5f today should suit even better and from stall 3 hopefully ridden wire to wire, think he’s better than this bunch and stable going well.
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