All Weather Lays and Plays

[Anonymous]

Compltely underestimated the McMahon horse here – seems to have improved out of all proportion. Steve Drowne hopped off Rowe Park and said to Linda Jewell that the horse blew up in the final furlong and a half and

if he’d been severe, he would have finished second

. Pick of the paddock today – one of the nicest heads on a horse I’ve seen recently.

Grudge was nibbled at but was seriously disadvantaged by the draw and was fundamentally outclassed. The seriously punted John Spearing horse missed the break and upset many locals. All three are worth noting for a return visit.

As I backed Noble Storm to beat Rowe Park, I would have been incredibly appreciative if Drowne had indeed ‘been severe’.

Best One

(5.35) at 7/1 and

Motivado

(6.10) at 5/1 are my two pre-Cup hopefuls for tonight.

[Maxilon 5]

4.45 Wolverhampton

Spectait

is ideally suited to the conditions of the race – 31111 over 1m 1f at Dunstall park – and there’s no Sea Lord in opposition here. Didn’t run that badly last time out and this Class 4 event is there for the taking.

4/1 as we speak.

[aaronizneez]

130W Conry Alt Just Timmy Marcus
205W Annes Rocket Alt Mount Juliet

340W Taking a chance with Bertbrand each way here. All career wins have been at Wolverhampton and didn’t shape too badly in his first run in 5 months LTO at Nottingham.

445W Spectatit surely has a chance in this as highlighted by Max and has been bet but he’s not for me at present and the two drifters I like are Ahlawy and Veroon. If on a going day the first mentioned would go close and Veroon looks nailed on for a place.

[Maxilon 5]

First winner of the season, Aaron, with Conry!

I’m determined to post a winner before, say, Christmas, but tipping horses like Spectait isn’t the way to go although those profiling figures were compelling.

Mark Tompkins could have a terrific day’s sport at the sandpit.

1.30

Battery Power

3.00

Miss Wendy

– a fair bit to find at the weights, but the offspring of Where or When go well at Southwell, Yarmouth winners often go well there and she’s an in form filly at the right time of year.

3.30

Astroleo

– the only horse in the field to win at the trip and is a CD winner up against unproven sandpit sorts.

Goodison Park

is one I’m looking at for the future.

As ever, wait till the last five minutes – Southwell is the most market sensitive of all four artificial surface tracks, imo.

[Maxilon 5]

Mark Tompkins was there today and the market told the story about his runners with Battery Power a tidy 11/2 winner. The less said about the others – a serious touch of the slows – the better. He is coming again tomorrow and has three more runners.

Kimberley Downs and Nadeen are two to note for the future. Both might win before Christmas.

[slipperytoad]

Apologies guys but punting and my day job takes up most of my time leaving little for reading forums and catching up on content.

Will post A/W selections sporadically throughout the winter but keep it up in my absence..

I’ll be watching.

[Maxilon 5]

Nice to see you again, Mike! Hope to speak to you soon.

5.20 Wolver.

The favourite, Taurakan, runs under a penalty for a resurgent yard, but backing 8/13 shots in Class 6 handicaps isn’t for me and I’d rather back

Only A Game

at a massive price.

Winning form is at a premium in this race, particularly at 6f. The McInnes horse is ideally suited to the conditions. Treated well by the handicapper, sweetened further by the 3lb claim of Gary Bartley and an ideal draw in 6. Ignore the last run – 7f and right handed Kempton are not his thing.

[slipperytoad]

To make it easier for all to benefit from my work (and save time)I have decided to post my ratings on this thread.

Typically I use my ratings to create fair odds to identify value in the early price markets for the top 6 rated horses

as my records indicated that the winner is within this subset over 60% of the time

.

Depending on individual preferences you can use or abuse my ratings accordingly.

13:00 – Ronnie Smith ‘the Godfather’ 80th Birthday Surprise Handicap, 3yo plus, 7f, Class 5

The Happy Hammer (IRE) 6.096819847
Woolston Ferry (IRE) 4.846055253
Scottish Glen 3.536302582

Fol Liam 3.391410177
Picansort 3.07069256
Chilli Green 2.45603238
Pipers Piping (IRE) 1.751154459
Super Frank (IRE) 1.508098874
Safwaan 1.438223506
Ivory Lace 0.73679119
Kipchak (IRE) 0.392609728
Bookiesindex Girl (IRE) -1.151096798
Rubenstar (IRE) -2.626985944
Perfect Ch’I (IRE) -4.210362036

14:00 – Bet Test Match Rugby – Betdaq Handicap (div 1), 3yo plus, 6f, Class 5

Arctic Lynx (IRE) 3.956602636

White Shift (IRE) 3.22106552
Emiratesdotcom 2.261811368
Riflessione 2.156442615
Mogok Ruby 1.3585897
Tislaam (IRE) 1.285309961
Durgan 0.62654534
Highland Harvest -0.764049997
The Strig -0.940546837
C’Mon You Irons (IRE) -2.592482179

14:30 – Bet Test Match Rugby – Betdaq Handicap (div 2), 3yo plus, 6f, Class 5

Avonvalley 4.19644202
Danzoe (IRE) 2.755935506

Resplendent Alpha 0.130498608
Loyal Royal (IRE) -0.164639213
Moonlight Cass (IRE) -0.17733679
Dreamacha -0.19304241
Make My Dream -0.366855592
Cerito -0.708131105
Sherjawy (IRE) -2.53297795
Waterloo Dock -2.679484324
Charles Darwin (IRE) -2.987494644
Dubai Legend -6.681655768

15:00 – Lingfield Park Marriott Hotel & Country Club Handicap, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 2

Edinburgh Knight (IRE) 4.108640024
Mirza 2.381497113
Take Ten 1.710549756

Arganil (USA) 0.692403242
Pavershooz 0.515149545
Billy Red -0.457463755
Flipando (IRE) -1.981155286
Tourist -3.429491464
Matsunosuke -4.41949025

[slipperytoad]

Ratings 13th November – Wolverhampton

17:50 – Enjoy The Ringside Entertainment After Racing Handicap, 3yo plus, 5f 20y, Class 5

Aalsmeer 1.99
Triple Dream 1.32
Methaaly (IRE) 0.51
Grudge 0.07

Lake Chini (IRE) -0.38
Sharp Bullet (IRE) -0.82
Hypnosis -3.60
Canadian Danehill (IRE) -6.42
Harry Up -7.59
Silver Linnet (IRE) -9.65
The Tatling (IRE) -11.02
Silver Prelude -14.06

19:20 – Bet Multiples – Betdaq Handicap (div 1), 3yo plus, 1m 141y, Class 6

Tallawalla (IRE) 1.37
Farmers Dream (IRE) 1.25
Full Victory (IRE) 0.20
Querido (GER) -0.20

Hector Spectre (IRE) -0.26
Quadrifolio -0.81
King Of Connacht -8.89
Sue And Sue -12.71
Lend A Light -23.35

19:50 – Bet Multiples – Betdaq Handicap (div 2), 3yo plus, 1m 141y, Class 6

Join Up 2.07
Royal Patriot (IRE) -0.01
Reddy To Star (IRE) -1.73
Just Jimmy (IRE) -2.32
Papa’s Princess -2.89
Lujano -3.53
Cyril The Squirrel -3.82 <- Win @ 9/2

[slipperytoad]

Slipperytoad Ratings

16:40 – Wolverhampton Racecourse – All Conferencing Needs Met Handicap, 3yo plus, 1m 141y, Class 6

Final Drive (IRE) 4.67

Ella Grace (USA) 3.31
Empress Leizu (IRE) 2.86
Strike Force 1.86
Forbidden (IRE) 1.80
Powerful Pierre 1.80
Steed 0.79
Lord Theo 0.31
Guga (IRE) -0.55
Shared Moment (IRE) -0.75
Kumbeshwar -0.76
Eastern Gift -1.07

Updated 12:37: Collect Art N/R

[slipperytoad]

Slipperytoad Ratings – Sunday November 28 2010 – Kempton Park

Really Really poor card today

14:15 – Boxingdayraces.co.uk Handicap, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 7

Alana Banana (IRE) 2.50
Cheery Cat (USA) 2.42

River Bounty 0.89
Song Of Praise 0.62
Boy The Bell 0.25
Polemica (IRE) -1.51
Jonny Ebeneezer -2.22
Braddock (IRE) -4.19
Ballyvonane (USA) -5.11
Flow Chart (IRE) -7.86

17:20 – Name A Race For Christmas Presents Handicap (div 1), 3yo plus, 7f, Class 6

Cawdor (IRE) 6.82
Perfect Ch’I (IRE) 2.04
Leelu 1.31

Super Frank (IRE) 1.24
First Service (IRE) 1.16
Delaware Dancer (IRE) 0.97
Annes Rocket (IRE) -0.12
Minortransgression (USA) -0.33
Sovereignty (JPN) -0.47
Downhill Skier (IRE) -0.53
Dvinsky (USA) -1.08
Sonny G (IRE) -1.28
Teen Ager (FR) -4.51
Alpha Tauri (USA) -35.06

17:50 – Name A Race For Christmas Presents Handicap (div 2), 3yo plus, 7f, Class 6

Fine Ruler (IRE) 1.81
Rich Boy 1.75
The Happy Hammer (IRE) 1.70
Pipers Piping (IRE) 1.67
Poor Prince 0.38
Spirit Of Love (IRE) 0.30
Nacho Libre 0.19

Kipchak (IRE) -0.08
Emiratesdotcom -0.92
Simple Rhythm -1.52
Premier League -2.74
Ede’s Dot Com (IRE) -3.46
This Ones For Eddy -4.63
Cactus King -5.87

[slipperytoad]

Slipperytoad Ratings

Wolverhampton 15:20 – Bet Europa League Football – Betdaq Handicap, 3yo plus, 5f 20y, Class 6

Prince James 6.54
Sharp Shoes 4.31
Wooden King (IRE) 2.53

Towy Boy (IRE) 2.06
Tyrannosaurus Rex (IRE) -0.89
Flaxen Lake -0.97
Monte Major (IRE) -1.00
Straboe (USA) -1.11
Cape Royal -2.31
The Tatling (IRE) -5.15
Liberty Ship -7.54
Ridley Didley (IRE) -8.45
Steel City Boy (IRE) -8.73

[tbracing]

A good winter to you all chaps, now the show is really on the road!!!

3.20

Like the look of

Straboe

in this field, looked a progressive type before reverting to the turf at the end of the last synthetic season. Raced on softer ground on 3 occasions in the summer and eventually over a stiff 6f which was never going to be in favour this fellow wants 5f and no more! Reverting back the pollytrack and 5f makes him interesting against generally a bunch of exposed old beasts, though many of them consistent are always likely to find something a little better lurking in the handicap. Has won off 50+ day absence before clearly the pollytrack would have been his target so lay off explainable and Williams has had plenty of winners lately so no fears on the time off.

General shout of 10/1 across the board looks fair, personally predicted closer to 7/1.

[slipperytoad]

slipperytoad ratings

30th November –

Lingfield

14:15 – Betdaq The Betting Exchange Handicap, 3yo plus, 1m, Class 4

Syrian 5.56
Elspeth’s Boy (USA) 4.10
Young Dottie 2.39
Thunderball 2.10
Kavachi (IRE) 1.35
Waabel 0.94
Halsion Chancer 0.71
Wilfred Pickles (IRE) -0.05
Final Drive (IRE) -0.92

Salient -2.49

15:10 – Felbridge Handicap (div 1), 3yo plus, 6f, Class 6

Charles Darwin (IRE) 3.68
Loyal Royal (IRE) 1.24
Mr Skipiton (IRE) 0.94
Espy 0.41
Best One 0.07
Mary’s Pet -0.43
Grand Palace (IRE) -0.52
West Leake (IRE) -2.95
South African Gold (USA) -2.96

Interchoice Star -4.60
Flyjack (USA) -7.27
Heliocentric -32.63

15:40 – Felbridge Handicap (div 2), 3yo plus, 6f, Class 6

Rio Royale (IRE) 5.93
Chinese Democracy (USA) 5.70
Bobs Dreamflight 2.70
Final Rhapsody 0.38
Athaakeel (IRE) 0.19
Durgan 0.16
Dancing Welcome -0.24

Meydan Dubai (IRE) -0.82
Pragmatist -1.42
Poppy Golightly -1.49
Figaro Flyer (IRE) -4.65
Fayre Bella -5.05

30th November –

Southwell

15:30 – Southwell-racecourse.co.uk Handicap, 3yo plus, 1m, Class 6

Watch Chain (IRE) 2.19
Ubenkor (IRE) 1.53
Ingleby King (USA) 0.81

Almahaza (IRE) 0.77
Ancient Times (USA) -0.71
Morocchius (USA) -1.12
Mojeerr -2.53
Olney Lass -3.47
Plenilune (IRE) -6.11
Orpen Wide (IRE) -9.48
Flores Sea (USA) -10.95
Ryan’s Rock -39.89

[tbracing]

2.15 Young Dottie
3.10 Loyal Royal, Espy

[slipperytoad]

Slipperytoad Kempton Ratings

16:30 – Kia Sportage Handicap, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 4

Dark Lane 4.21
Ray Of Joy 3.00
Breathless Kiss (USA) 2.62
Kylladdie 1.52
Vhujon (IRE) 1.08
Lord Of The Reins (IRE) 0.95
Flash McGahon (IRE) -0.22
Crown (IRE) -1.61
Little Perisher -2.75
Jack Rackham -4.56

17:00 – skysports.com Racing Handicap (div 1), 3yo plus, 6f, Class 6

Cavitie 4.84
Torres Del Paine -1.96
Namir (IRE) 0.69
Moonlight Cass (IRE) 2.27
Nollaig Shona (IRE) 2.24
Pilgrim Dancer (IRE) -0.40
Lake Chini (IRE) 2.39
Chinese Democracy (USA) 1.12
C’Mon You Irons (IRE) -3.43
Hidden Destiny 3.35
Resplendent Alpha 1.60
Mack’s Sister 4.21

17:30 – skysports.com Racing Handicap (div 2) , 3yo plus, 6f, Class 6

Waterloo Dock 1.61
Liberty Trail (IRE) 1.00
Nacho Libre 0.87
Super Frank (IRE) 0.79
Dvinsky (USA) 0.67
Silvee -0.13
Clerical (USA) -0.98
Doctor Hilary -1.48
Whatyouwoodwishfor (USA) -4.72
Mogok Ruby -4.76
Katy’s Secret -6.15
Alpha Tauri (USA) -30.3

[slipperytoad]

Slipperytoad

Kempton Ratings (1st Dec)

16:30 – Kia Sportage Handicap, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 4

Dark Lane 4.21
Ray Of Joy 3.00

Breathless Kiss (USA) 2.62
Kylladdie 1.52
Vhujon (IRE) 1.08
Lord Of The Reins (IRE) 0.95
Flash McGahon (IRE) -0.22
Crown (IRE) -1.61
Little Perisher -2.75
Jack Rackham -4.56

17:00 – skysports.com Racing Handicap (div 1), 3yo plus, 6f, Class 6

Cavitie 4.84
Mack’s Sister 4.21
Hidden Destiny 3.35
Lake Chini (IRE) 2.39
Moonlight Cass (IRE) 2.27
Nollaig Shona (IRE) 2.24
Resplendent Alpha 1.60
Chinese Democracy (USA) 1.12
Namir (IRE) 0.69
Pilgrim Dancer (IRE) -0.40
Torres Del Paine -1.96

C’Mon You Irons (IRE) -3.43

[

0634 edit

] sorted rating

17:30 – skysports.com Racing Handicap (div 2) , 3yo plus, 6f, Class 6

Waterloo Dock 1.61
Liberty Trail (IRE) 1.00

Nacho Libre 0.87
Super Frank (IRE) 0.79
Dvinsky (USA) 0.67
Silvee -0.13
Clerical (USA) -0.98
Doctor Hilary -1.48
Whatyouwoodwishfor (USA) -4.72
Mogok Ruby -4.76
Katy’s Secret -6.15
Alpha Tauri (USA) -30.3

[Author]

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