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Prime Recreation picks himself tomorrow in the 1.10 at Kempton. ÂÂÂ
The last time the old warrior appeared in a 5f Banded stakes at Kempton he won from a supposedly unfavourable outside draw at 12/1.
In that race, he beat Davids Mark, (tomorrows forecast favourite) and Muktasb, (from the in-form D Shaw yard).
How the RP predict him at 25/1 is beyond me, after an excellent prep run at Wolver last Monday where, until tiring after his summer break, he looked the likely winner one out.
A front runner, with winning CD experience and well drawn for one who likes a rail to run against, he has everything in his favour. If he’s big enough I’ll cover the win bet with a place.
Good luck tomorrow.
Cheers
Max:biggrin:
(Edited by Maxilon 5 at 1:31 am on Nov. 27, 2006)
<br>Landucci – has won here twice but best polytrack figures are at Lingfield and he seems to prefer 7f. Very consistent and unlikely to be beaten far.<br>
NV, to help my with my homework can I ask a few questions, relating to the above.
1) Which ratings do you use? In particular speed or form ratings?
2) What do you see as the differences between Lingfield and Kempton surfaces (at this early stage) ?
3) I think I remember AP saying he didn’t see distance preferences as important on AW as on turf. I’ve no idea if this is still the case, but what is your take on that?
If you see this and get a chance, I’m hoping it will really help me get a handle on Landucci versus my initial reading of the situation.
tooting – "I’m going to reduce my points from now on – clearly got a lot to learn about this aw lark"<br>
Now that my brain cells have recovered from excessive alcohol I can now string a few words together.
As you mentioned in a previous message the objective of the thread is to exchange ideas and thoughts about All-Weather Racing. Given your comments above, I thought I exchange comments in respect to my own A/W race analysis..
As you are aware my process is heavily leveraged from your book so the first step is to isolate contenders based on class, suitability to distance, going and recent form.
Where I find I have great "edge" over other punters is in pace analysis.. I spend a "significant" amount of time understanding the individual running style of each runner, once this is established and I then try to establish the overall pace within the race, I then factor in the draw bias and track bias.
The next step (an important factor on the A/W Surface) is to replay the race over and over in my head trying to anticipate how the race will unfold given the abilities of each runner,. I then make a selection from the list of contenders.
Other factors used in race evaluation (if required)
Pedigree Analysis using the Racing Post (on the race card click on the horses name, then click on the horses sire name and note Progeny statistics for A/W races.. The technique was mentioned in Nick Mordins book "Winning without Thinking"
Finally, similar to your stat which eliminates horses who ran poorly at a grade lower than their current race, I use a similar stat to eliminate  A/W debutants.
"First Time on All Weather" (previously run on Turf) see <br>http://www.flatstats.co.uk/articles/first_time_betting.html
Flatstats findings are also verified in the book "Horse Racing – A Guide to Profitable Betting" by Peter May in the section "All Weather Debutants"
Hope that helps
Tooting…
1)  Which ratings do you use?  In particular speed or form ratings?
Primarily speed ratings. I have limited time and finance and although I used to keep my own sand ratings, I cannot do this anymore and Topspeed figures are a perfectly reasonable guideline.
<br>2)  What do you see as the differences between Lingfield and Kempton surfaces (at this early stage) ?
Nothing concrete as yet, but…<br>> Horses seems to hang more at Kempton.<br>> The track is slightly stiffer and more likely to find out those with slightly suspect stamina. <br>> Also, and probably related to the last point, front-running horses don’t seem to get swamped quite as readily as they do at Lingfield.
<br>3) I think I remember AP saying he didn’t see distance preferences as important on AW as on turf. I’ve no idea if this is still the case, but what is your take on that?
Actually, I basically disagree, but there are differences. Lingfield in particular is a funny track, and it is not just down to slowly run races. Lots of horses stay further on the Lingfield polytrack than they do elsewhere.
My non-scientifically founded theory is that the surface is springy and that this acts as a normalizer, ensuring most runners run at a similar pace and making it harder for horses to run really fast. The consistent pace seems to help horses stay and produces a concertina effect on finishing distances which doesn’t help form study.
Stalkers, finishers and more generally any horse with the ability to ‘quicken’ (relatively speaking) at the end of races are favoured as they don’t get as far behind as they might on a different racing surface.
Races are often won by late bursts of energy exertion, and thus horses which run freely are rarely able to win competitive events here. Similarly, front-runners find it harder to put sufficient distance between themselves and their rivals during the middle part of races and are often mugged in the final furlong.
As stated above, Kempton seems to be slightly more of a stamina test and is a little more forgiving to those blessed with early pace.
<br>Landucci
My views on this horse’s chances were formed mostly by looking at the RP summary page for the horses form. I looked at its wins and at the in-running comments from these and recent runs, using the Topspeed figures as a reference point.
The horse clearly loves Brighton, so much so that its form there occasionally confounds evidence from elsewhere regarding stamina preference.
His two polytrack (Kempton) wins were at 8f and 7f. The 8f win came in a relatively weak apprentice handicap and a TS rating of 39 combined with the ease of the win suggest this race was so poor that it was unlikely to be a true test for him.
The 7f win was rated as faster (55) but still not ‘quick’ and the in-running comment of ‘just held on’ didn’t suggest to me an especially strong finish; with 4 horses finishing within a length of each other, this suggested that 7f was probably the optimal trip for Landucci.
Digging a little deeper into Landucci’s recent polytrack form resulted in the following summary (which I never created in real terms, but used mentally):
(Date, Dist, Course, Topspeed, Finishing Pos, Closing Comment)
21/04/2006 8f Kempton  TS —  (10 of 14)  “Fadedâ€ÂÂ
All hail NV.. top stuff! :cool:
Lingfield 3:00
In a race devoid of pace, Maltese Falcon is likely to get an easy lead and if he can reproduce his form from his record breaking run over course and distance 20 days ago, he’s likely to score again.. No bet though on my tissue.. <br>
My ha’penny worth on the 3:00 Lingfield…
Graze On – coming into form but handicapper is relenting only very slowly and the horse remains on a higher mark than for its last sand win. Looks very well suited by really tight tracks (Chester/Wolverhampton) and also by fibresand, and owes his handicap mark mostly to efforts on these, so may well struggle to get involved here. Will be happier racing prominently than most here.
Sailor King – on a more realistic mark now but hasn’t looked at all suited by polytrack so far having beaten only 3 horses in 2 races and finishing well behind. More likely to do better somewhere else and a very unlikely winner here. Is likely to be very prominent early on.
Maltese Falcon – showed little in the summer but has done better in recent weeks and ran really well when breaking the course record over this trip last time despite pulling early on. May like racing here and has to have a big chance.
Little Edward – returned to form in no uncertain terms recently but probably not as suited by 6f as the minimum and that coupled with a 6lb higher mark should seal his fate today.
Grand Show – yard has had 4 beaten favourites from its last 6 runners and may be going slightly off the boil. Following a brace of early autumn wins, he seems no more than fairly handicapped, but a C&D record of 1211 is impressive and has to be seriously considered here with a good run at Kempton four weeks ago.
Saviours Spirit – stable is in good form and does well here. Another very impressive C&D record (322123311125) makes him of definite interest, but also possibly suggests that a career high mark of 89 could be enough for now to stop him winning. Expect a sound effort and a close up finish though…
Qadar – talented quirk-meister, but will struggle to find a way through from this inside draw in such a quality race and is passed over this time.
Woodnook – ran very fast last time when 3rd and is very consistent, having either won or been beaten no more than a length in 10 of her 13 career starts to this point. Attractively weighted, proven against older horse and very interesting.
Conclusion<br>Quite a lot of hold-up horses in this sprint and the two most likely to force the pace (Graze On and Sailor King) cannot be easily fancied. Both Maltese Falcon and Woodnook appeal as possible winners especially as they seem to race just behind the leaders and are not as dependent on being brought from the rear as some here. Of the remainder, the fabulous course records of Grand Show and Saviours Spirit are hard to ignore and both will probably finish there or thereabouts.
£8 staked
MALTESE FALCON – £4 win<br>WOODNOOK – £2 win<br>plus… 2 x £1 r/f/c<br>
<br>
NV, thanks for a brilliant reply – incredibly useful, and exactly what slippery had in mind for this thread (I think).
I’m in tune entirely with your write-up above on the 3:00. However, I fear I’m now going to go off into the lost world of contrarian punting with today’s bet!!
<br>Lingfield 3:00<br>Maltese Falcon 3/1<br>Grand Show 4/1<br>Saviours Spirit 6/1<br>Little Edward 6/1<br>Qadar 7/1<br>Woodnook 9/1
When I did my preliminary study last night I was imagining Little Edward’s burst of form would have him vying for at least second favourite behind a solid Maltese Falcon (4/1 say). I was thinking that given his rise in the weights and form over the distance this would make the book for us, and there’d be some juice in some of the other runners.
However, this morning the market seems to have accounted for that AND more! 10/1 looks too big to me, and whilst I fully expect him to run exactly as we all think he will, I find myself playing anyway.
Little Edward 4pts win at 10/1
Good selection NV.<br>By the way I thought your post on the 30th November made interesting reading. I agree that the Kempton track is slightly stiffer than Lingfield and more likely to find out those with slightly suspect stamina – unfortunately I did not realise this until after I backed a horse last saturday at Kempton over 7f when I knew there was a doubt about whether he would stay that far:(  ÂÂÂ
thanks tooting and well done to NV also.. Shame I was at work and missed the drift in price.. such is life.. :cool:
2:10 1m 4f – Arena Leisure plc Handicap (Class 3)
The manner that Velvet Heights hacked up last time I can see why he’s the jolly this time around. A legitimate favourite on my analysis (at a short price), normally I would pass the race and move on, however the Huey Morrison runner Kylkenny really caught my eye.
With doubts about most of the runners (outclassed, preference for polytrack or distance concerns) his 6/5/15 win/place/run record is outstanding. With no distance concerns and on a winning BHB mark, Kilkenny is the only stable representative at a course where Huey does extremely well. At the prices I’m taking this as positive sign for a place position, hell he might even win so a small each-way play today.
2:45 1m – southwell-racecourse.co.uk Handicap (Class 2)
A contentious race (a class 2 handicap in name only :o )
If the over night prices are anything to go by, my tissue may be screwed up which might mean I’ll need to add some bacon for that egg on my face.
9/2 Freeloader, 5/1 Nevada Desert, Gentleman’s Deal, 15/2 Kamanda Laugh, Byron Bay, 7/1 Grey Boy, 16/1 Wessex, Langford, 33/1 Paraguay
Kamanda Laugh has a 63-day course absence to overcome and seems to be at his best on straight tracks. His trainer has a good A/W record so I’m taking the view that if Kamanda Laugh had any ability for all-weather racing he would have taken the opportunity to contest in some of the higher graded handicaps on either polytrack or fibresand by now.
Nevada Desert is well rated but poorly drawn, so its Freeloader who is noted as “ready to winâ€ÂÂ
I’ll just put my tissues and recommendations up – time is short
Southwell 2:10<br>Velvet Heights 5/2<br>St Savarin 7/2<br>Heathywards Pride 6/1<br>Kames Park 16/1<br>Kylkenny 16/1<br>Mighty Moon 16/1<br>Most Definitely 16/1<br>Desert leader 16/1<br>Front two look solid. Strictly on that last run Heathyards Pride whould be competitive also, though overall form and jockey suggest otherwise.
No bet.
<br>Southwell 2:45<br>Gentleman’s deal 5/1<br>kamanda Laugh 11/2<br>Nevada Desert 11/2<br>Freeloader 6/1<br>Wessex 11/1<br>Byron Bay 11/1<br>Grey Boy 11/1<br> <br>Still struggling pricing up those who have no aw form, or no Southwell form. Slippery, I can see why you may like Freeloader. I’ll join you.
Freeloader 2pts win at 8/1
Plus <br>Freeloader and Heathyards Pride 1pt ew double
Wd Slippery with Maltese Falcon btw…
Southwell 2:10
The market is completely centred around Velvet Heights and St Savarin who both won races here last time. At the time, we seemed agreed that these races were weak for the grade and the form of neither looks particularly solid.
Velvet Heights could do no more than win, but Most Definitely who reopposes and finished second there had previously looked anything but a sand horse and At The Money (who I fancied for that race) has followed with two places in weak events achieving TS figures in the low 30s each time. Velvet Heights could be a decent fibresand performer but hasn’t proved it yet and looks a poor value favourite here.
Meanwhile, St Savarin’s victory also looks fairly weak with Credit finishing worryingly close in last place, and only Heathyards Pride providing any resistance (despite being unsuited by the relative dawdle). I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that form were reversed.
Conclusion<br>Of the remainder, four are proven capable of decent form here, and I will take a chance that these can play out the race between them. This is definitely more of a punt with a possibly lucrative angle rather than a fully justifiable analysed bet, but this seems worth playing…
DANCE WORLD<br>HEATHYARDS PRIDE<br>KYLKENNY<br>DESERT LEADER
12 x 50p exacta combs<br>24 x 10p tricast combs<br>(£8.40 staked)
2:45 Southwell
Wessex – stable in no more than average form and no history of winning off an extended break (limited evidence).
Gentleman’s Deal – 1 from 1 here and stable going ok. Lightly-raced, unexposed and potentially not badly treated – big chance.
Kamanda’s Laugh – has never run here before which is a big negative for me as few horses truly act well here. In with a chance if he does but that is a big if…
Langford – also unproven on fibresand and hasn’t been in great form. Passed over.
Byron Bay – 2 out of 2 C&D record, both of which were narrow wins but clearly likes this surface. Stable has had 3 winners and 2 seconds from its last 11 runners and this horse has gone well off a short break. Confidence is tempered by a stiff looking handicap mark but still interesting.
Freeloader – ran ok here once, seems in fair form and is related to a veritable sandmonster so may well act here. Slow grindy racing may suit and has a chance.
Grey Boy – unraced here and despite a reasonable record when fresh is passed over.
Nevada Desert – 3lb rise for narrow Class 3 C&D handicap win looks fair enough, is proven here and posted a decent last time out topspeed figure. Really ought to go well.
Paraguay – looks harshly treated after 3 good handicap runs in July for this yard. Makes his sand debut and has plenty to prove.
Conclusion<br>Not a race I feel massively confident about, with two or three who would make their presence felt if taking to this surface, but I prefer to concentrate on proven course form here, so I’ll play four here again as I can’t see much between them. Unfortunately, there is not much approaching a big price in there so I’ll reduce stakes and only play…
GENTLEMAN’S DEAL<br>BYRON BAY<br>FREELOADER<br>NEVADA DESERT
24 x 20p tricast comb (£4.80)
Lingfield 2:50.
Well, for the first time I’ve produced a tissue that bears some semblance to the early odds. Must be a step in the right direction!
Areyoutalkingtome 4/1<br>Orchard Supreme 5/1<br>Red Spell 6/1<br>Vortex 6/1<br>Marajaa 8/1
I was impressed by Orchard Supreme at Kempton last time out. As someone (DJ?) noted above, he won his race coming from last to first off a very slow pace. Looking at the previous two races behind Areyoutalkingtome he now looks to have a much better draw, and a better jockey.
There seems to be a difference of opinion between bookmakers – priced between 9/2 and 7s and available at 15/2 on betfair. (Personally when there is a discrepancy I prefer to be on the right side of Coral’s prices – I blame this forum!).
This is the first time I’ve actually felt good about a bet on this thread, so I’m happily on.
Orchard Supreme 4pts win at 15/2
Not a good day yesterday for this thread for once.
Velvet Heights looks quite classy off his current mark, and Gentleman’s Deal was evidently very well treated of yesterday’s mark as indicated by the market.
As for today…
2:50 Lingfield
Lots of usual suspects out here.
Red Spell – was able to win over 7f here last year in a decent time, but that was off 89 and off a mark of 103 without a recent run, this one looks an unlikely winner today.
Areyoutalkingtome – an extra 3lbs makes things more difficult here and if the other jockeys have their heads screwed on, he may not be allowed or able to kick clear early for a third consecutive run.
Andronikus – not convinced this one is as good round a bend. Ran ok on polytrack debut but is always likely to find traffic here when trying to get involved late and has improvement to find on the clock in any case.
Xtra Torrential – stable struggling for form and I can’t see that this chap has ever run well enough to warrant this kind of handicap mark.
Vortex – handicapper is relenting now and off 94, this admirable sort who has 3 course wins to his name (from 7 runs) has to be considered a danger to all.
Orchard Supreme – finished runner-up to Areyoutalkingtome, and went on to win a reasonable handicap at Kempton (much to my dismay at the time). The step back down to 7f is a slight negative but remains in very good form and a course record of 213111362 includes only one defeat of more than a length, and that was at the hands of a subsequent dual Listed winner who raced off 81. Big chance.
Hidden Dragon – basically in decline and has looked suited by 5f-6f hitherto. However, stable is in reasonable form and this one did finish good seconds twice over this C&D a couple of years ago. A bonafide outsider, but of a little interest for forecast mixes.
Marajaa – the Musson yard is absolutely flying at present, with 7 winners from 12 runners in the last 4 weeks at pirces ranging from 7/4 to 28/1, including 3 from 3 in the last fortnight. Already this horse has to be of interest. Ran really well (and fast) when winning over this trip at Kempton last time out, the form from which is standing up well, and a 6lb hike shouldn’t be enough to stop him going very close here.
Tamagin – has a good record here (4 wins from 9) but has raced awkwardly under pressure the last twice and will be doing very well to even get competitive off this mark.
Conclusion<br>Although the stable’s form will take a dip at some stage, MARAJAA has loads in its favour and at 6/1+ looks a decent bet. Of the others, both Orchard Supreme and Vortex make plenty of appeal, whilst Hidden Dragon is a lively outsider.
MARAJAA – £8.20 win
MARAJAA + Orchard Supreme – 2 x £1 rev exacta<br>MARAJAA + Vortex – 2 x £1 rev exacta<br>MARAJAA + Hidden Dragon – 2 x 50p rev f/c
MARAJAA to beat in any order {Orchard Supreme, Vortex, Hidden Dragon} – 6 x 30p tricasts
(total = £15)
<br>
Good stuff NV – part of this experiment is to compare what you would have done alone with what you would have done with the input of others.
So, on that basis, and because Marajaa is the only other one my tissue could make a case for, I will add
2pts win Marajaa at 8/1<br>and half pt rev fc.
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