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Off to Wolverhampton today.. here are my pre-race notes.. <br>—-
1:10<br>All signs point to yet another win for the Mark Johnston trained and legitimate favourite Aureate. Snow Dancer for a place position. Poor trainer form for 2yo’s at Wolverhampton would put me off Good Effect but he is another that might sneak a place position
1:45<br>If you remove Blakeshall Rose and Reflective Glory (BHB rated 45 and 50 respectively and this is a 0-75 handicap) what remains is a contentious race. The trainer of the paper favourite Alittlebitleft has not had a winner in 10 days, which makes him slightly vulnerable. On pace, as the only horse that likes to make the running, Situla should show the others a clean pair of heels to make all from “gate to wireâ€ÂÂ
A fairly appetizing card at Wolverhampton today.
In keeping with the stated ethos of this thread, i.e. looking mostly at the Class 3 and above races, I have had a quickish perusal of the 4:00.
To start with, Cragg Lass and El Manx Senorita both ran in the same heat last time, both starting at massiiiive odds and both failing to come close to getting involved. I think ‘long-term prospects’ is the p.c. term for this pair and they are easily passed over here. Big shock if either of them are in contention inside the final furlong.
Salient – two solid enough winning performances over this trip at Lingfield, but the run last time appears to have been quite generously rated by TopSpeed and I don’t (yet) believe it was as good a race as they say it was – certainly the third didn’t run well enough yesterday to convince me otherwise. There were only 4 runners and Salient only just scraped home. As a likely front-runner, he could be vulnerable late on, but nevertheless holds genuinely good claims here.
Victor Trumper – ran ok on his polytrack debut last time but ought to have won given the relatively slow pace having hit the front in the latter stages, and was beaten by one of Fares’ stablemates (might give them a line to the form). Will probably lead or press hard from early on.
Fares – decent effort last time, is very consistent with a marginally progressive profile including a best ever effort last time when winning a small-field race over C&D. This trip looks right and his stalking style may suit in a race where a couple of rivals may ensure a reasonable pace. Does have a bit to find on official ratings.
Slipasearcher – not progressing and clearly flattered by Royal Ascot form. Ran yesterday off 72 running no more than respectably and is starting to appear tripless, being neither a strong stayer nor overly pacey. Is likely to race from off the pace and that might help, and has only a little to find on her best form if she turns out again.
CONCLUSION<br>Whilst Salient holds solid claims, his current price (shade of odds on) seems very skinny. With a nice performance last time, FARES is the selection, in the hope that a good pace up front will favour his hold-up style of racing.
My tenner will be…
FARES – £8 win
FARES to beat SLIPASEARCHER – £2 s/f/c
<br>
Good result NV. The Class 2 Hcap at Lingfield tomorrow looks interesting with only 8 runners – might be worth a serious look at?
thanks swallow, although there wasn’t much speed on and the two i thought would track the pace ended up making it! still, it’s the result that (mostly) counts i guess… :)
as for tomorrow, i think there are a few races worth looking at including that one – time to start studying methinks!
Nice one with Fares, NV. Nicely backed, though I would fancy Salient next time the pair meet. Clive’s horse looked like he tried to duck the issue. Victor Trumper needs further, imo.
And Slippery, good call on Snow Dancer. I was cheering it on for the much maligned Alan Berry yard. He was the only one who looked as if it wanted to make a race of it with Johnston’s hotpot.
slippery – hope the guinness was good and good picks in the opener!
lots of races to look at today, but to start with…
1:30 Lingfield – 7f 2yo handicap
Nothing obvious to strike out before we start.
La Marmotte – seemed to run well with a slipped saddle last time but looks very quirky and generally runs too freely which could be disastrous here over a trip which might be plenty far enough for her.
Tee Off – stable’s horses are mostly running ok without winning and this disappointing filly does not appear at all progressive. Her lack of a turn of foot makes her an unlikely victor for me.
Miss Saafend Plaza – really ought to have won by now but ran a solid race on her polytrack debut and receives some generous treatment from the handicapper here, racing off only 72 having proved well up to competing off 80 on turf. The trip suits and she has a big chance.
Stoneacre Gareth – finding form now, but appears to have been harshly treated on his handicap debut. He runs as though needing further and/or some headgear to keep him focussed and makes little appear this time round.
Baylini – very cheap purchase looks pretty shrewd now, with this filly having shown good form on all 3 starts and wining a reasonably strong C&D maiden in a goodish time on her last outing. Her mark of 81 looks ok and she is likely to be bang there in the final furlong.
Cesc – improved polytrack run racing closer to the pace under this jockey last time over a mile. Ought to go well but a 6lb penalty and this shorter trip might leave him vulnerable, especially with suggestions of temperament including a couple of notably weak/flat finishes and a tendency to be slowly away.
Conclusion<br>I’m not as keen as most seem to be on Cesc here, especially at 6/4ish, whilst both Baylini and Miss Saafend Plaza make plenty of appeal, the latter at a nice looking price.
£10 staked as follows:
MISS SAAFEND PLAZA – £6 win
MISS SAAFEND PLAZA & BAYLINI – 2 x £1 r/f/c, 2 x £1 rev exacta
2:00 Lingfield – 10f 2yo stakes
Again, pretty hard to rule anything out straight away.
Habalwatan – late pouncer which is generally an advantage here (as he showed last time) especially with an almost guaranteed trailblazer in the field. Step up in trip seems almost certain to suit.
Peregrine Falcon – well bred Derby entry who could progress further but neither effort so far has resulted in a ‘good’ Topspeed figure and making all the running here will require a step-up in form and is hard to pull off at the best of times.
Castara Bay – shapes as though this trip will suit but mixed messages from breeding and a basic lack of pace may be a bit of a handicap. Reasonable effort over a mile on poly debut and could find himself running past some tired horses at the end, if the pace is good.
Mafeking – cheap Darley cast-off but ran well when wining ok Kempton maiden last time and is likely to appreciate this extra distance. Interesting, especially with low profile connections likely to lead to generous odds.
Montelambert – won a poor Beverley maiden and then ran respectably in a small-field German listed race over 7f (value of form hard to determine). Pedigree says this trip should suit but yard is quiet and the different trip/surface will be unknowns. Plenty short enough having been selected by Spotlight.
Conclusion
Habalwatan makes the most appeal here for me, but there are plenty of unknowns and it doesn’t appear to be a race to be too confident about. However, the front two look very short in the betting now and there are reasons for opposing both of them.
I’ll be betting as follows:
HABALWATAN, CASTARA BAY, MAFEKING – 6 x £1 r/f/c comb
2:35 Lingfield
Can’t see much of any angle here having been through the runners a couple of times. For placepot purposes, I reckon the top 4 in the betting have the best chance, but as it is massively over selected and unproven at Lingfield, Alpine Reel is omitted, leaving Bahar Shumaal, Speedy Sam and Kindlelight Debut to hopefully bag a couple of places between them.
No recommended bet though.
Just about found time for two races today.
Lingfield 2:35<br>Slippery, not sure if you’re around after your Wolverhampton adventure but here’s my prices. I will admit to having been influenced by Nick Mordin, and no doubt I’ll be blaming him later.
Alpine Rock 3/1<br>Bahar Shumaal 3/1<br>Speedy Sam 6/1<br>Kindlelight Debut 7/1<br>Psychiatrist 20/1
Bahar Shumaal 5pts win at 4/1 (should be 6pts but I’ve shaved a point off for caution’s sake).
<br>Kempton 5:50<br>With this being another 8 runner race I was hopeful of finding a nice ew double, but with Bahar Shumaal as likely to run a stinker as win, and with all 8 of these having a fair chance, it’s a no-go.
Cape Greko 9/2<br>Neardown Beauty 5/1<br>Orchard Supreme 5/1<br>Landucci 6/1<br>Cape of Luck 8/1<br>Wavertree Warrior 11/1<br>Ninth House 11/1<br>Freeloader 11/1
Boy this looks open. However, if I’m going to take my prices seriously (and I’m not entirely sure I should), Landucci is the one to be interested in.
Landucci 4pts win at 9/1
no bets for me today as I’m still nursing a sore head from my visit to wolverhampton yesterday .. :(
I like the shape of the 2.35 at Lingfield. Kindlelight Debut is much improved over the last twleve months, better than ever in listed company behind Nayyir last time. However the BHB assessor has taken a very dim view of that and she’ll need to progress again or hope the rest run brelow their best. Bahar Shumaal has only one piece of form this year that gives him any chance in this grade, that being his 7 lengths win off 80 at Wolverhampton. There’s no fluke about that form either, run in a good time. He had a pretty stiff task next time but he’s far too inconsistent in my opinion to be worth supporting from a 13 lb higher mark than at Wolves. Psychiatrist looks on a stiff mark on his best form but has the profile of a horse likely to go backwards anyway, off 10 months and joined the rather poor Julie Tooth (did have a winner yesterday though). Alpine Reel is a bit harder to discount as he’s still improving, this just his sixth start and he won readily at Wolverhampton last time. He’s 7 lb higher in a stronger race and whilst I can understand why he’s favourite, he’s going to have to improve again. Baan has dropped in the weights and looked back to near his best when third to St Savarin at Southwell last time. I’m not too worried about the switch to polytrack per se, but there has to be a chance he’ll find a couple of these a bit too quick for him as he’s raced mainly at further this year. Regal Royale is easily taken on, his yard out of form whilst he also looks temperamental. Punta Galera has struggled since winning at Sandown in September, he very much had the run of the race that day and will need to improve to win this.  The one I like is Speedy Sam. He’s lightly raced and looks to still be progressing. He did as well as could be expected behind Cimyla last time, essentially not good enough that day but also shaping as if he’ll be able to do better back at this trip. Handicapper hasn’t had chance to reassess him yet, surely he’ll put him up because he looked to show improvement and I think he’s a pretty good bet at 4/1. I’ve also taken him in a match bet at 5/6 with Ladbrokes to beat Bahaar Shumaal which should cover the stake on the win bet with a bit of luck.
(Edited by davidjohnson at 2:24 pm on Nov. 25, 2006)
dj – well done with Speedy Sam – a brave call!
so far, not so good for me…
5:50 Kempton – 8f hcap
A very tight race with no obvious early pace, and tons of hold-up merchants, so potentially very messy.
Neardown Beauty – 3 really good runs from 3 starts here and seemed suited the mile last time. Occasionally starts slightly slowly but big chance here with no obvious manic pace.
Landucci – has won here twice but best polytrack figures are at Lingfield and he seems to prefer 7f. Very consistent and unlikely to be beaten far.
Ninth House – seems to run better at Wolverhampton than here (or Lingfield) although does have a C&D win to his name. Definite feel that his rating is a bit stiff and some relief from the handicapper is needed before this one makes much appeal. Yard doesn’t have a great record here and is in moderate form.
Orchard Supreme – exposed but very consistent. The 3lb rise for placed efforts thus looks pretty harsh and makes him fairly unlikely to win (imho) although will be close up.
Cape Of Luck – interesting (goes well fresh) but quirky (needs a cute ride). Has never run here and might just get going too late to get involved even over this extra furlong.
Wavertree Warrior – only has one win from 7 polytrack starts and a good turf season means he runs here off a mark 10lbs higher than he was being beaten off in the spring. Another from the Littmoden yard (along with Ninth House) but this one has more early pace than most here so is of interest.
Cape Greko – up 2lbs for a decent second here last time but is inconsistent nowadays and has a lot of improvement to find in order to compete with some of these at their best.
Freeloader – has a decent win record including two poly victories and could be interesting if racing up with the pace (as he can do) in a race where most prefer to come from behind.
Conclusion<br>With so little early pace, Wavertree Warrior and Freeloader are of interest simply because they are likely to be up there early on and able to dictate affairs. Overall, NEARDOWN BEAUTY makes considerable appeal as one in form and a likely improver with few negatives against it.
NEARDOWN BEAUTY – £6 win
NEARDOWN BEAUTY, FREELOADER, WAVERTREE WARRIOR – 6 x £1 exacta comb<br>
oh dear. mugged close home by the sounds of it…
not my day!
(2nd, 3rd, 4th)
(Edited by non vintage at 5:55 pm on Nov. 25, 2006)
Well done DJ – great stuff.
I’m going to reduce my points from now on – clearly got a lot to learn about this aw lark, and as I’m using my proper racing fund for this experiment (a lazy mistake methinks) I’d best be sensible.
As far as today goes – thank god for Bolton!
NV
Although Orchard Supreme won only narrowly, the bare form doesn’t really reflect his superiority. As you pointed out, there was likley to be little pace in the race and you were proved right, the overall time slower than the much lower class maiden that proceeded it. Given such circumstances Orchard Supreme did well to win at all, still last over 1f out before flashing home in customary fashion to win going away. He’s likely to need things to drop right but his mark cannot go up much at all considering the bunch finish and I wouldn’t be in a hurry to oppose him next time now he has shown he’s as effective at Kempton as he is Lingfield.
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