- This topic has 1,252 replies, 73 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 3 months ago by
.
- Posts
It looks a tricky old day at Southwell today but surely can’t be as bad as Friday night at Wolves & Dundalk.
1.00 I’ve narrowed it down to three, Taper Jean Girl, Lord Victor and Tealing. Taper Jean Girl won over C&D LTO and has an obvious chance on that form although was half a length behind Lord Victor before that at Wolves albeit 2lb better off today. Lord Victor was done by a quarter length LTO over 6F at Southwell so handles the course and shouldn’t be too far away. Tealing has had just the two runs and LTO was beaten over C&D by an 80 rated horse Vegas Palace who has links to some decentish form. The time that day was quick and this one could sneak a place if improving from his last run. What to do ? Preference is for Taper Jean Girl but what I will probably do is a small EW interest on Tealing. Ah, just checked the prices and Tealing is best priced 9/2 ! Lord Victor at 8/1 is looking more appealing but I think I’ll wait closer to the off before committing to anything.
2.00 The only one I would risk here would be our old friend Dickie Le Davoir who Max intimated last week would go close on his next run. A worry would be the 5F but he ought to be able to get amongst this lot today.
3.00 Another tricky one here. Shadows Lengthen won easing up over C&D in a fair time two runs back before following up at Wolves. A double penalty may not be enough to stop him today although Funky gibbons is replaced by a 7lb claimer whose strike rate overall isn’t great and whose record for MW Easterby is 1-65. Lost Soldier Three has been running consistlently lately in Claimers and sellers and went close on his first try at Southwell over todays distance LTO. Brave Mave would have a shout if returning to the form that saw her win this race last year off a three pound higher mark. Pegasus Prince has probably had aproblem as LTO was his first run for nearly 18 months. He is however 3 from 3 at Southwell over 11 and 12 furlongs so if that run over hurdles has blown away the cobwebs he could be thereabouts at a decent price. Conclusion, the jockey puts me off Shadows Lengthen, Brave Mave doesn’t seem in the same form as when going in to this race last year so that leaves Lost Soldier Three and Pegasus Prince. Lost Soldier Three it is with a small EW interest on PP
3.30 Elusive Hawk is well at home over C&D being a triple C&D winner and his "shrewd" trainer could well eke out a bit of further improvement to take this. Great Charm has shown up a little better the last twice including over C&D and is reasonably well handicapped on his best form. Naomh Geileis stayed on strongly to win over 7F here LTO off 58. Now off 64 but was rated 94 at the beginning of the year and if the drop in distance doesn’t handicap her too much then should be thereabouts. Rio Cobolo ran well LTO over C&D and comes in to the reckoning on that run. Narrowed it down to Naomh Geileis and Great Charm with slight prefernce for the former.
Think the last race at Southwell is the most interesting today. Lots of course form on show and good mix of in and out of form sorts.
I fancy Mozayada today. Has never won at 6f (only had one try though) but has shown speed in the early part of races. If she can get out well and either lead or be handy then she might just be able to keep going to the line at rewarding odds (20-1 approx). Obvious dangers in this race though. Naomh Geileis won over 7f last time and feel drop to 6f isn’t ideal. Elusive Hawk can be hit and miss although loves it here. Premier Lad is open to improvement. Rio Cobolo is a solid and relkiable type. As such there odds are about right. Mozayada is a risky play at big odds.
(PS I took 16-1 earlier and am kicking myself that its gonna go off at bigger odds!)
Good write ups, chaps.
Just got back. An extremely difficult day for everyone – except Great Charm backers.
Some points to make.
Rockson hated fibresand and Westport was just slow. My last two bets in muppet rider races ever. Honestly.
I tried to neb on RC Guest in the aftermath of Dickie’s predictable fourth place but the minute he saw me sidle up, he walked to the other side of the winners enclosure. The horse is ready to win over 6f and ran better than I thought it would over a distance short of his best.
Benedict Spirit was only beaten in the last five strides and Probert was disconsolate in the winners enclosure, as were connections. Needs 1m 3f and the absence of an Evans improver in the field.
The word after the race was that the Morrison yard are big fans of the winner of the Novice, Nazreef. It had apparently been working all over the better fancied horse (Budva) but was thought to be too green to wins, confirming our paddock impressions. This is a very decent animal.
Premier Lad was backed all day until the critical last five minutes. I knew my fate when it started to drift. The three year old looked well, but travelled to post gingerly and was never put into the race at any stage – unlike the same connections’ (and Aaron’s 9/1 tip!) Tealing earlier.
The most difficult stable in the country to second guess and there were plenty of long faces traipsing up Racecourse Road afterwards.
Contenders
Joyeaux, Micky Mac, Leading Edge, Dickie Le Davoir, Sea Rover, Not My Choice, GranakeyAs usual a typical non-descript race at Wolverhampton.
Leading Edge has it all to do from a wide draw. Not impossible but highly improbable chance from stall 12. The step up in trip will help
Micky Mac
. Given his consistency you can set your watch by Joyeaux but without a win since Oct 08 (06 on the All Weather) he still has decent place claims.
Dickie Le Davoir
is another who is consistent on this surface and ran well from a poor draw at Southwell last time out. Sea Rover fails one of my major elimination tests and is overlooked on this occasion. Granakey’s best form is at Southwell and runs from outside the handicap. Dunno about Not My Choice, the market seems to suggest "no"
Minimum odds: 5/1
Lingfield 12:05:
Memorandum
Lingfield 13:10:
Spinning Bailiwick
Lingfield 13:45:
Coeur de Lionne
Chookie Hamilton
Lingfield 14:50:
Millfield
,
Daniel Thomas
,
Tiddliwinks
6 x £1 Fourfold Accumulators. Total Stake £6.00
Estimated minimum return if winning at current odds: £240System Stats
Date, bet, return, running total
10.10.09: -£6.00, £0,
17.10.09: -£6.00, £0,-
24.10.09: -£6.00, £0,-
14:11.09: -£6.00, £0,-
21:11.09: -£6.00, £0,-
28:11.09: -£6.00, £0,-£36.00
Wolverhampton 2.40
Almaty Express – All the usuals for him, drawn low, 5f, wolverhampton, Holland on board and in a class 6, could quite easily blow this field away if bagging a lead
Further to my bet on Follow the Dream I’m quite keen on Always de One of Mark Johnston’s in the 3.40. Not much to note so far in the way of form but the trainer is a dab hand at improving young 2/3 y/o’s after a couple of runs and in a field where there’s a lot of dead wood and exposed types, it looks a good bet at around 3/1.
Not much at Kempton this evening. The best bet for me is Dvinsky in the 8.50. Still more than capable of his present mark looks a solid bet to beat that bunch. Of the rest the 6.50 might go to Red Current or Topcroft with preference for the former and modest stakes in the last on Clerical to finally break his duck.
One bet, if forgiving his dire run last time, might be TRIPITAKA. Interesting that he seems to be campaigned exclusively at Kempton, the form of his debut win is rock solid, beating Darley Sun and Dome Rocket by about 5 lengths. Something must’ve been amiss last time as he tailed off and was eased at the finish. Dropped 3lb for that, and hopefully Neil Callan can get a tune out of him as he deputises for Phillip Robinson. Satwa Gold is a worthy favourite based on his win here last time but that came in a claimer and this is much tougher; Rocky’s Pride is still relatively unexposed but you will also have to forgive his last run and tackles the AW for the first time. A good bet at around 3/1 I feel.
Short listed
Fathsta, Harlech Castle, Thunderous Mood, Daddy´s Gift, Beat The Bell, Pearly Wey, Little PeteI should really pass the race as one that’s too difficult to fathom. Oh well..
On my pace figures Fathsta could get a soft lead and make all. A tempting exacta with the remaining runners on the shortlist.
The horses I shall keep an eye out for just before the off.
Harlech Castle has a poor draw, but the one that has the least negatives; trainer and jockey have outstanding stats as well. Thunderous Mood has a better draw and running style that suits Spenser’s tactics. Daddy´s Gift is another with least negatives but may get trapped behind a wall of horses if Fathsta fades in the final furlong. The remaining two have good draws but their stable form is not up to much at the moment.
I can’t resist a throwaway note on Little Pete in that, Slippery, on back class alone. Has run creditably in some high quality handicap sprints. A bemusing 33/1 easily available. Nightmarish McInnes stable form (only 8 winners all season from near three hundred runs and none in the last 30 days) a possible reason for the laughable price.
Best of luck.
Edit: 33/1 no longer generally available. Price falling.
Contenders
Arteus, Tourist, Autumn BladesA straight shoot out between last time out winners Atrteus and Tourist with preference for Tourist who has a better draw and with the track conditions over 7 furlongs at Dunstall Park favouring hold up performers a matching pace profile as well. Autumn Blades is the runner from the Bowring stable who does well on the All Weather surfaces. At current best odds of 10/1 I may throw a few points in his direction
A yard who have good recent form in both codes is the Gollings yard, and I think that TOTO SKYLLACHY could be worth a punt here on his second try on the AW. Although he seemed to prefer a softer surface on the AW, I don’t think the Wolverhampton track would hold much fear as he certainyl gets the 7f trip, and was a staying on 3rd at Kempton recently. Has since run some good races in defeat and a 1lb drop sees him on his lowest ever mark and from a good draw he could go well at around 8/1.
Good shout on Little Pete Max, also hard lines Slippery at Wolverhampton (unless of course you had the tricast)
Three at Lingfield today
1.50 Sabatini won very nicely on his first try on the AW LTO at Wolves. That was a claimer but if improving should take all the beating
2.25 Dens Gift has been running OK on turf and now returns for the first time to the scene of his C&D victory last January. Only 2lb higher and with Luke Morris up, who has a decent strike rate with C Cox, should go close.
3.00 I’m risking a go on I Confess here. Well treated if returning to top form and hasn’t been running too badly of late. Solid EW bet.
Good shout on Little Pete Max, also hard lines Slippery at Wolverhampton (unless of course you had the tricast)
Arteus drifted to a backable price therefore acted accordingly. Yep pitty about the tricast
Two I like tonight at Wolverhampton are:
7.50 CLEAR SAILING, 3/1 Franny Norton does well on his forays to Wolverhampton and a track which seems to be favouring front runners at the moment, seems to be rekindling his early season form and can take all the beating in a poor race.
8.20 HUCKING HEAT, Reg Hollinshead is in good form currently and HH is on a viable mark and C&D form is a plus even though getting on in age. 8/1 looks a good e/w bet.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.