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Rich
I like Clear Sailing too with Fujin Dancer a possible danger
Others are
820 The Grey One Alt Impressionist Art
850 Tamasou Alt Just Bond
920 Caledonia Princess Alt Cayman FoxCheers Aaron. McInnes heads one of my "key" yards and I’m hoping they’re all turning a corner after a grim campaign.
In the 8.20, Thistimesforgood, the Irish invader at the very foot of the weights, seems to thrive on left handed Polytrack He has won at Wolver and run a cracker at Dundalk two back over a trip too far, travelling like the likely winner. I don’t know the yard at all and there are three other Stena raiders in there, but 16/1 – up against some tired grunts, jaded rogues and usual suspects – isn’t bad each way.
Best of luck.
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I’ve been fairly unimaginative with my selections tonight, though have strayed a little further down the market than would ordinarily be the case for the fillies’ maiden:
6.50 Luisa Tetrazzini (2/1)
7.20 Kai Mook (12/1)
7.50 Ocean Legend (6/1)
8.20 Resplendent Angel (2/1)
8.50 Just Bond (4/1)A profitable evening hinges on Resplendent Angel, so I’m happy to sacrifice the other four to see this one home!
Nice winner with Clear Sailing for Rich and Aaron and a decent banker with Resplendent for Media (good shout with the Ingram horse too!)
My selection was completely tailed off, something which can happen with low grade Stena raiders and an event signalled well in advance by the jungle drums. Cayman Fox is the one to take out of last night’s action and definitely one for the notebook; if not for next time, definitely for the time after.
If you’re betting at Southwell today, you might like to be made aware of a biblical deluge in these parts(two and a half miles from the course.) I’ve yet to see two giraffes sail past my window, but the going for today’s meet should be fast nonetheless, placing less emphasis on grinding stamina in the stayers’ races and making it easier for wide draws.
Southwell, Saturday:-
Race 1: Eleven runners and nine could win. Big priced Arctic Wings has never run on the fibresand but I have a hunch he could be better class than the likes of Jackie and Swords, horses always vulnerable to an improver. Inexperienced jockey, but stable in form.
Race 2: Angies Nap is 721114 at Southwell and is better at today’s minimum trip. Can’t see past this one from plot draw.
Race 3/4: Not really my cup of tea. In the second maiden, Labretella is 66/1 in the RP; a sneaky each way price for a horse who acts round here and is a very good looking filly.
Race 5: Studying particle physics is easier.
Race 6: Fast and furious with Dunaskin, River Ardeche and Luberon all wanting a piece of the action up front. Lucky Punt is 11121 round here and will be quietly stalking the mayhem before pouncing late.
Race 7: Benedict Spirit struggles to last the 12f here and has run once and won once at today’s 11f. Bosamcliff went down to post last time like Aladdin floating over the gulfstream on his magic carpet but appeared to need every yard of the 12f. A reverse possible today?
Race 8: Can’t have Saute over this trip. Slattered by Stagecoach Emerald last time out and that’s particularly uninspiring form. You can rid yourself of six of these easily. Red Wine is odd, Muntami needs a rest and Dart is a carthorse. Birthday Star and Stravita are slow; Seminal Moment looked sick and uninterested last time and his yard has gone at the game again. Major Promise’s chance would be signalled by the market from this punting yard, but on the face of it, seems unlikely. Colourful Move could run into a place, but the two I’m betting to fill my larder are Martha’s Girl, who was getting the hang of things last time over 12f in the maiden won by a Strawbridge/Gosden good thing, and Dazzling Begum, from a stable on fire and who, in July this year, hammered benchmark beachcombers including Swords, Crimson Mitre, Stagecoach Emerald and Polish Red over this course and distance.
Longshots: Labratella, Martha’s Girl and Arctic Wings.
Nap: Benedict Spirit
NB: Angie’s Nap"Southwell Specialist" bet: Benedict Spirit, Angie’s Nap and Lucky Punt in a trixie. Add Dazzling Begum for Lucky 15.
Good write up Max
Lets see if we can cover Wolverhampton this evening. Unfortunately the selections are obvious which is not good.
Wolverhampton 17:50: Istiqdaam (nap[/color:rz6doiwf])
Wolverhampton 19:50: Full Toss
Wolverhampton 18:20: James Barrymore, High Constable
Wolverhampton 19:20: Nickel Silver, Misaro, Green Park
6 x £1 Fourfold Accumulators. Total Stake £6.00
Estimated minimum return if winning at current odds: £120Good write up Max
Lets see if we can cover Wolverhampton this evening. Unfortunately the selections are obvious which is not good.
Wolverhampton 17:50:Istiqdaam(nap)
Wolverhampton 19:50: Full Toss
Wolverhampton 18:20: James Barrymore, High Constable
Wolverhampton 19:20: Nickel Silver, Misaro, Green Park6 x £1 Fourfold Accumulators. Total Stake £6.00
Estimated minimum return if winning at current odds: £120Significant non-runner Full Toss in the 19:50. perm re-hashed below
Wolverhampton 17:50: Istiqdaam (nap[/color:7t4n6rdt]) (2nd)
Wolverhampton 18:20: High Constable
Wolverhampton 19:50: Chocolate Caramel, Red Expresso
Wolverhampton 19:20: Nickel Silver (3rd), Misaro (2nd), Green Park (1st)[/color:7t4n6rdt]6 x £1 Fourfold Accumulators. Total Stake £6.00
Estimated return @ current odds: £492.68System Stats
Date, bet, return, running total
10.10.09: -£6.00, £0,-£6.00[/color:7t4n6rdt]
17.10.09: -£6.00, £0,-£12.00[/color:7t4n6rdt]
24.10.09: -£6.00, £0,-£18.00[/color:7t4n6rdt]
14:11.09: -£6.00, £0,-£24.00[/color:7t4n6rdt]
21:11.09: -£6.00, £0,-£30.00[/color:7t4n6rdt]
28:11.09: -£6.00, £0,-£36.00[/color:7t4n6rdt]
05:12.09: -£6.00, £0,-£42.00[/color:7t4n6rdt]Southwell
12.20
Mickys Knock Offs last run doesn’t look bad, a bit of trouble in running saw him turn for home 4 lengths off the pace and the winner of that race bolted up and has gone on to win off an 8lb higher mark in a handicap yesterday, so in hindsight he had a pretty hopeless task chasing that runner home. Wishful thinking but i was hoping lucky Mellor would get in this about 4/1 but not so, solid course record and holding his form well he’ll go close but doesn’t look to be any value in his chance. Angies Nap disapointed last time out with no excuses on favourable weight terms and may have hit a wall now. Tartufo Dolce got a dream run at Wolverhampton last time out but ran a solid race, may not be alot more improvement to come immediately would be my thoughts.
I would side with Mickys Knock Off here, if he handles conditions he’s in with a chance and his price looks fair compensation.
2 point win Mickys Knock Off 8/1 Coral, Ladbrokes1.50
My Oddsline
Felday 9/4, Ingleby Arch 11/4, Esprit De Midas 9/2, Confuchias 11/2, Flowing Cape 10/1, Indian Skipper 40/1With the defection of Turn On The Style this doesn’t look like being the strongest run 6f event in the world. Ingleby Arch is bound to be popular but he has his limitations I feel and the further he goes up the scale the more I would want to take him on at short prices. Felday is the likely winner for me, his trainers record here is fantastic and he tends to send what he knows will handle the course much like Sir Mark Prescott and Braveheart, however at the shows I wouldn’t want to touch him. May be worth playing the middle pair in the market Confuchias and Esprit De Midas, the first has the class to win this, unknown on this surface and worse off for his turf run with Felday but he has the ability to win around his current rating. Esprit De Midas was a horse I felt would continue to improve when last seen, have to worry about the absence but he is lightly raced and yet to be fully tested.
Wouldn’t take an early price, will look to back Confuchias and Esript De Midas closer to the off on the blue if attractive enough a price, this market looks pretty effective right now
Slippery, I enjoyed writing that in a burst of insomnia far more than I did betting there today. A gang of NTU students in front of the Johnson pitch seemed to enjoy it though, reasoning, quite logically, that a blind bet on the favourite was the most likely winning strategy – which it was, to their frenzied, drunken delight.
Arctic Wings went to post like a crab: He won’t appear at Southwell again. Angie’s Nap, as tbracing says, seems to have hit a wall – you could have had anything you like on her and she was the first beaten. Laberetta went to post early and was well backed into 12/1 each way. Benedict Spirit’s day was clearly last week, though there was money for him to make amends and the trainer looked glum. Lucky Punt won again but at no price. Martha’s Girl finished sick. Dazzling Begum drifted like the Kontiki in the last five minutes from 4/1 second best to as high as 8/1 and was never put in the race to challenge at any stage. Clearly, there will be other days for the Jeff Pearce horse.
I’m not sure it’s feasible to do what I do at Southwell. The late market is telling you far more at the moment than an advanced form book/notebook/angle finding approach will ever do.
Best of luck.
I’m not sure it’s feasible to do what I do at Southwell. The late market is telling you far more at the moment than an advanced form book/notebook/angle finding approach will ever do.
Thats why I try to bet my tissue against the market as late as possible Max. Per my maxims
“The crowd is smart … so let them do the handicapping and analyse them“
“Markets don’t run on hope. The markets will tell you when you are right or wrong“
“Following the herd is fine until they all run off the side of a cliff together.”
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I don’t normally bet on the all-weather, but am chancing my arm for the second time in two days at Wolverhampton tonight:
5.50 Istiqdaam (7/4)
6.50 Lindoro (9/4)
7.20 Mrs Penny (4/1)
7.50 Chocolate Caramel (3/1)
8.20 Laureldeans Best (9/4)Chocolate Caramel and Laureldeans Best have only been included for the purposes of bulking up one or two multiple bets, with Mrs Penny and Lindoro (if the latter gets beaten, even dropping in trip, serious questions will have to be asked) the main hopes for the evening.
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Lindoro was rated at least 20lb better than anything else in the race (40lb better than the winner), had recent winning handicap form and is capable over the trip, yet drifted from 7/4 to 7/2 before starting extremely slowly and being eased to a walk with a furlong to go.
I can say with some confidence that this will be the last time I bet on the all-weather.
Lindoro was rated at least 20lb better than anything else in the race (40lb better than the winner), had recent winning handicap form and is capable over the trip, yet drifted from 7/4 to 7/2 before starting extremely slowly and being eased to a walk with a furlong to go.
I can say with some confidence that this will be the last time I bet on the all-weather.
Gecko, I refer to the comments I made earlier.
Remember All Weather racing is bottom of the barrel low grade stuff. The horses are not machines and they are running in that grade for a reason. However because the horses are unreliable the benefit for us punters is that the market price discovery mechanism is “almost” efficient.
Therefore “I” reserve betting until the horses reach the post. Because I monitor prices 15 minutes before the off, it’s at that time I note any drifters via betfair (either online or via mobile phone) I then compare the market against my tissue (you have to have your own opinion). If I had doubts about a horse before the off and the market has doubts as well (drifting) then I lineout the selection and look elsewhere or pass the race.
If I am feeling bullish and think the crowd has decided to engage in mass hysteria (we’ve all seen a steamer get steamed i.e a false favourite) then I go against the trend and put more money on. Why..
When everybody thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong
“The Art of Contrarian Thinking”Value is all-important – not winners. The secret is not getting more heads than tails, its winning more when a coin comes up heads than you lose when it’s tails
Sometimes I’m right, sometimes I get egg to match the bacon on my face. But over the long haul ..
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I’m not so naive that I expect lowly rated animals to run to their marks week after week, but a horse who comes in to a race so far clear on figures, and with solid handicap form to its name, shouldn’t be beaten as Lindoro was this evening. The pre-race drift and the abismally slow start, in conjunction with the aforementioned gulf in ability – reasonable handicap form, and winning form at that, should stand up in selling company – only served to show the all-weather in a far dimmer light.
Getting back to my other bets tonight. Mrs Penny ran disappointingly, but I accept full responsibility for entrusting my money (not for the first time) to Adam Kirby. I don’t know how many times I’m going to kid myself that he is actually capable of winning a race – he has an uncanny knack of giving horses far too much to do – but I expect to see tonight’s failure rectified by Chris Caitlin in the near future.
Pension job on the AW today
1230L Red Current Alt Seaquel
130L Secret Witness Alt Geezers Colours
230L Dichoh
210W Iron Out Alt Waahej
240W Resplendent Ace Alt Arashi
510W Titus Gent Alt EspyThe AW is usually the site of racing corruption – see Messrs. Fallon, Williams, Mongan, McKeown cases……I only bet there for fun and intrigue really, minimum possible stakes……but I am interested in the "follow the market" strategy, as it does exhibit some feasible ideas and notions, but nonetheless, the market can get it wrong a lot of the time (would be interesting to see some statistics on the percentage market "movers and drifters" win or lose?) but when there’s a strong possibility there could be some wrongdoings somewhere (see cases above, more than ample evidence of this occurring in past 5 or 6 years) via Betfair lays, trainer ~ trainer agreements, even jockey ~ jockey agreements, then you simply cannot bet with confidence that there is an equal playing field. The big races offers hope that all are trying hard and there could be some collateral form reading to base opinion and bets on.
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