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Dickie La Davoir runs in the Southwell 3.30 over 6f, from a central to high draw, off a mark of 56, possibly the best handicapped horse in the race (has run off much higher marks e.g. 83 and won off 69 at Ponte last year.) The steady JP Guillambert rides.
He was signposted on here when heavily backed over 5f three weeks ago and ran on well, as if the return to 6f was a bonus.
Two things stop me going haywire tonight about his chance tomorrow. One, the market – a critical reference point before betting at the Sandpit at the moment. Two, the form of the RC Guest yard. As far as I can see, only one older horse of his other than Dickie, (Indian Skipper)has run creditably in the last few meetings. And he is always there. He either has some terrible horses in his stable or they are out of form. Backing horses from out of form stables in the middle of their trough is like burning sheafs of ten pound notes, as you all know.
Circle Dance is another eyecatcher in the 2.00. Urbane Simon Mapletoft co-owns and this one makes its first start for Mandy Rowlands after enduring a long season with the stone cold Shaw yard. Rowlands "go to" jockey Adam Kirby pilots and the Blidworth yard reach for the sheepskin cheekpieces first time after a break. Used to run off marks in the seventies and is thrown in on that form tomorrow. Probably acts at Southwell. A poor race full of the usual suspects.
Best of luck.
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Pawan (1.00) ran well here 3 ago, giving weight to horses that would’ve been far too good to get in this race, and his lto run at Lingfield doesn’t do him justice, as he was in the mix, over a course that’s far too sharp for him, until being knocked sideways in the closing stages.
You’d never have your house on anything Ann Stokell rides, but the horse is in form and has his best chance for a while, so a little each way at c16/1 might defray a few Christmas X’s.12.00S Italian Tom won well at Sandown off a pound lower in the softin September and if he can produce that form will be very hard to beat today. Caramelita who might appreciate the Fibresand could give him most to do.
1.00S This should be fast and furious with Lesleys Choice, Equulus Pictor and Colorus all liking to lead. Rebel Duke should have every chance of reversing the form with Lesleys Choice however he has never won off this high a mark and I fancy LC might still have a bit of improvement left to defy her rising mark. I would rate Equulus Pictor a danger if taking to the Fibresand and I wouldn’t discount Reet Hard’s suggestion Pawan who should have the race run to suit.
2.00S I strongly fancy Ingleby Princess here. A reproduction of her win over C&D last month would surely be enough today. The rest look pretty moderate and if there is to be a surprise Unconsoled might be the one after an improved showing over C&D last time out.
2.30S Ex Fahey inmate Swinbrook is the choice in this one. Back at his favourite venue should go close. Loose Caboose could make them all go before being picked up in the final furlong is the alternative.
3.00S Reg Hollinshead has his horses in good form at present and his Tri Chara is a tentative choice. All its winning has been done over 7F but was clear over that distance at the furlong marker before being picked off late on LTO. A big danger would be Cool Sands over his preferred C&D and who looked like adding to his good record here a couple of runs back.
3.30S Max’s Dickie Le Davoir would have every chance here, although having backed him the last twice I am now probably going to desert him as he may find it hard to reverse the form with Diamond Blade who is on a hat trick. I have it between these two.
Good luck all
Agree with a few there especially Tri Chara whose yard is flying.
Zeffirelli in the 2.00 is on its lowest mark and has bits and pieces of form for the Quinn yard, could be an ew bet to nothing at around 14/1.
2 from 2 there, interesting that the front runners seem to be winning at Southwell at the moment, the kick back causing those held up a problem perhaps? Will be an interesting trend for the remainder of the card…
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Front-runners are always favoured at Southwell.
Yes to some extent, you obviously have to contextualise each race as it comes though.
A very quiet afternoon, with most punters staying warm in the betting hall. Nice one, Aaron, with Italian Tom and Diamond Blade. and unlucky with Zefferelli, Rich. Mick Quinn was there and was overjoyed with the run – I nearly said to him that Frannie Norton (who has flu), would have made the difference – a jockey who rarely gets done in a finish.
Other than that – and excepting Jonnie Skull – winners were easy to find for market followers.
Now. Dickie. I followed Guesty round the course like a stalker before and after the race and it was clear the poor performance wasn’t unexpected. I did back it (a fool born every minute) at 7/1, but he got outpaced. Guest shrugged his shoulders when asked his opinion giving me the impression Dickie had lost interest in the game. The owner/prominent connection was talking feverishly with David Chapman after the race – a move to Ruth Carr in the offing?
Circle Dance was unfancied and appears not to enjoy Southwell.
1.30 Lingfield 7f Seller.
Bryan Smart must have walked under the same ladder as me. Of his last 12 runners, 7 have finished placed and I’ve seen three nutted on the line. The yard – one Goodwood Listed winner apart – have had a torrid time this summer, but the result of that is a barnful of well handicapped horses all coming back to form at the same time.
Smalljohn has won off 74 and runs today off 66. He gets weight off several lower rated horses and is 1lb well in with the favourite. 7f on poly is perfect. Front runners have been going reasonably well at Lingers lately and I fancy this one to make all. Waterloo Dock, for the in-form Mick Quinn, is a serious danger on one run, will be much fitter today and I’m saving on him.
Bet: Smalljohn 7/1
Waterloo Dock ?
plus ExactaBest of luck.
Good luck with that Max. No time for a write up today for Lingfield.
130 Trade Centre
200 Tiddliwinks Alt King Of Defence
230 Very Well Red Alt Ymir
330 Bell IslandGood luck to all
I like King of Defence too – also like Where’s Susie in the 3.30, had a recent run over hurdles and is well treated on return to the flat, decent ew at around 14/1.
King of Defence 2nd but Where’s Susie also ran.
The Kempton 8.50 interests me now as Mr. Plod is a NR. 2 horses stand out. One horse in first time handicap is FLYING GAZEBO, who has bits and pieces of form (finishing ahead of some rating in the high 60’s), and at 25/1 now upped in trip from the shrewd J Moore yard is worth an ew bet.
The other one is SOVENTO, a middle distance winner in Germany, is down to a mark of 52 after some tough assignments in Ireland, but ran OK in a competitive handicap at Catterick last time behind the usefil Simple Jim. Hayley Turner now takes over and he’s worth a bet at around 9/1.
Thanks Doug. I suppose if you read the text of the post, I kind of wished the outcome on myself. One thing is for sure; Smart and McInnes will each have a good winner soon. I just hope I’m on.
Pretty poor fair at Kempton today but I am drawn to Viper in the 5.30. Ran well last time behind Moonbeam Dancer and with a slight reversing of weight and with the stable in good form I fancy a reversal.
However I want to bet each way and at around 7-2 I am gonna double Viper up with Cranky Corner in the 2.30 Huntingdon. He was near favourite at Aintree last time and ran well for a long way before tiring in the straight. Despite lots of runners feel that most are deadwood and cranky corner makes appeal at around 4-1.
2.5pts each way Double
Cranky Corner 2.30 Huntingdon (4-1)
Viper 5.30 Kempton (7-2)Two class 4’s, could be worse!
LITTLE PETE in the 6.00 takes my eye after a good third last time behind Daddy’s Gift, runs off the same mark of 84, good draw, should be in the mix.
4.00 Narrowed it down to the two C&D winners Blue Neptune and Wanchai Whisper. WW has been running consistently well but although not favoured by the weights preference is for BN who performed a little better LTO and could make them all go if allowed to lead.
4.30 There shouldn’t be too much between The Grey One and Resentful Angel again with TGO 6lb better off (including allowance) for a 3/4l beating. TGO should I think take revenge however I’m going to risk an ew on The Dial House who ran well off this mark over C&D three runs back.
6.00 Fathsta was unlucky over C&D LTO with Dvinsky and Little Pete behind and will go close if reproducing. Of those three though Little Pete for me is the best value however once again I am risking an EW on Mogok Ruby. Won over C&D off marks of 75 & 78 in January and is now back off 76. Luke Morris who was on board for those victories is on board today and his last two outings haven’t been too bad. At around 33/1 a good EW bet for me.
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