All Weather Lays and Plays

[davidjohnson]

Totally agree. But it’s the last time I pre-empt it! I’ll wait for the machine 30 secs before the off to tell me what is expected in the future!

[aaronizneez]

Poor card tonight at Wolves but a couple of fancies

720 Parkview Love , f/c Kensington
820 Capania

[Maxilon 5]

Three fiendish handicaps in a row topped off with a Classified to solve at Kempers today. Smaller stakes, being the day of rest, but I still can’t resist a punt. One things for sure: Mr Nicholls won’t be getting a yankee up here.

3.40 Littledodayno is 211 under the conditions, but is ridden by an obscure apprentice. Mind Alert is 6213 and has a good chance, but I’m taking a punt on Hollow Jo back at his favourite track. The draw is of no concern. Jenkins is seriously due a winner and this is a good price.

4.15 The front running Just Dust drops back to 7f after a year of Mr Easterby’s experiments (which have had the consequence of a massive drop in the ratings). Won off 82 and now down to 59, if this gets the lead then the animal might not be headed. Trainer has a good record at the course.

4.45 Bramcote Lorne back in trip, but with minimum confidence. A tricky affair.

5.15. I would have really fancied Wizby back in trip had he been ridden by Steve Donohoe, or even the trainers lad. But capable as she is, Evans doesn’t seem to use Catherine Gannon on his buzzers. I seldom back Classified animals who have won last time out, so Busy Man is out, but sixth in that race after missing the break was Marmooq. Ridden more prominently – and now Attwater is finding his feet – he can reverse the form. The fourth in the race, Bahhmirage, boosted the form last night.

For a Lucky 15, I’ll be muggishly throwing in Inside Story in the first.

Best of luck.

[aaronizneez]

My form at Wolves has been miserable of late but persevering on.

150 – Sion Hill has finished 2nd on last three visits to C&D and is holding form well. Well drawn to lead all the way. For the forecast I like Aggbag at a price if repeating C&D win in January. Guadaloup for the tricast if repeating run behind Aggbag over C&D.

220 – Town House ran well over C&D LTO and if able to improve a little is a solid EW bet for me today. Stoneacre Gareth is the least fancied pair of Peter Graysons but not too far behind my selection LTO. Forecast pick for me. For the tricast Blackheath who though getting on a bit could run on into the places.

255 – Punching has been running well and now back to favoured C&D will take the beating today. Plateau who has been running reasonably consistently of late without winning and canfill the forecast spot.

405 – Can’t oppose Morbick here. Princess Cocoa for the f/c

435 – Airman has been disappointing over hurdles recently but if reproducing its run against Lobengula & My Michelle in November has a good chance. Steig rates the main danger on its two previous visits to the track with Satindra for the tricast based on its November run behind Without Excuse.

505 – I’m taking what will possibly, actually probably, prove to be a mistake here but I’m leaving the odds on favourite alone. I’m going for two C&D winners to fight out the finish, both currently available at 33/1 ! Preference is for Carry On Cleo over Marino Prince. Ah look here comes the white coat brigade……………

[Tuffers]

As I have mentioned on the main forum, I now only back Mark Brisbourne’s runners on the flat. I’ve just checked out the speed figures for the 4.05 at Wolverhampton and MORBICK is absolutely miles clear on recent form. His last time out figure is 91 and the next best last time out figure is 69!

I reckon that at 6/4 we should all be filling our boots especially as Dean Heslop has a cracking record for Mark

[davidjohnson]

How useful are speed figures on the all-weather when a good speed figure is reliant on a truly-run race – something of a rarity over further than 1m. I can see how they can help in assessing which maidens might work out well, but in terms of assessing exposed horses is low-grade handicaps, I don’t use them at all.

[slipperytoad]

Have a chance to reply as my day job is allowing more time for my hobby.

I agree with you DJ. I have tried using speed figures in analysing all weather races. Other may find them useful but I dont use them in races where the form exposed.

I’d much rather spend time understand the individual running styles of the horses within the race to understand the pace configuration.

http://www.slipperytoad.co.uk

[Maxilon 5]

I know I said I wouldn’t back it. I know. I feel terrible about it, but I have got to have a little on Favouring tomorrow: (1.50 SW). Patrick Donaghy jumps on and takes off 7lb leaving Chapman’s pacesetter with a lightweight. His form at Southwell, over 6f, in Class 6 in Feb is 922

Largely unimpressive, I know. But only one other horse in the race has his optimum conditions tomorrow: Soba Jones whose appearances under tomorrow’s race conditions in Feb and March read 6128525112411.

Yet Favouring is weighted to beat him on last years form, (28/02/07) and better, the selection was beaten a short head by old Ace Club in tomorrows’ equivalent race last year. I like that line of reasoning. Trainers have long memories and all this will not be lost on Mr Chapman – particularly as Favouring was a well backed 9/2 jolly last year.

Bet: Favouring (Nap)
Reverse Forecast: Favouring/Soba Jones
Combo Tricast: Favouring/Soba Jones/Cadogan Square

Best of luck. Max.

PS: Remember what Luca Cumani always says about time chaps?

[aaronizneez]

Max

You’ll be glad to here I don’t like any of your three in the 1.50 . I’m going for Majestical who for me has surprisingly only run the once round here particularly as it is not inconvenienced by slower ground on the turf. I have Blakeshall Quest who finished in front of Soba Jones and Pappas Image LTO for the f/c

Unusually I quite like a few others at Southwell namely Intersky Charm in the 3.20,Kabeer in the 3.50 and Don Piccolo in the last.

[Maxilon 5]

Paid a last minute visit to the racecourse today – and like most last minute impulses, it was an expensive one. Didn’t fancy much last night and didn’t fancy anything today. Should have passed, but you know how it is!

Had Soba Jones been 7/1 last night, I might have singled, but he was a skinny price all day so I lost quite a bit on the first. (Favouring is just slow -duh!) Looks like neither of us got anywhere today, Aaron.

Notes: Intersky Charm was punted but had no chance behind a Johnston “improver”. William Blake is a horse to note; (looks a bit tasty). Plenty of local punters were complaining about Mr Johnston and both his winners came back to muted applause – punters pal no longer? Evens and Odds was different gravy and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one run well in some big sprint handicaps this summer. Connections seemed relaxed about Sandrey’s reintroduction: needed it badly.

Lingers tomoz – best of luck.

[aaronizneez]

Max

Managed to escape with Don Picolo in the last which recouped the earlier losses. Will continue with the AW till the end of Feb I think then try and do some study for Cheltenham and start some "research" work for the AW later in the year.

All the best

[Maxilon 5]

Nice one with Don Piccolo. I’d left the track by then and didn’t know the result!

I’ve already done my research for Chelters, Aaron. Sat the exam too.

The name on the exam certificate is Denman, Sah. A bulldozer of a racehorse wrapped in the body of a stampeding monster. Kauto is quicker but hasn’t got the stamina of this one – and if there’s one thing you need around Chelters it’s staying power.

One bet. £500. 2/1. Result? A profitable Chelters for once.

I’m carrying on with this till the Lincoln. Aaron, you any good with Sprint Handicaps on the grass?

[aaronizneez]

Best of luck with Denman Max, I have to admit I’d be swaying towards Denman over Kauto though wont be backing either at the price. Depending on how he goes in the Red Mills I might risk a small wager on Kicking King who if able to recapture his King George form would be thereabouts.

Never taken grass so cant comment on sprint handicaps

I did manage the tricast for the Stewards Cup once when Green Ruby won but that was over twenty years ago.

[Maxilon 5]

Ah! The Stewards Cup. Bliss…

I was thinking of a summer long sprint handicap thread: (keeps me out of mischief). There was an attempt at a 2-y-o thread last year which looked promising, but fizzled out – however, juveniles are just not my thing at all.

Any ideas?

[aaronizneez]

Sprint handicaps should be OK although sometimes the effect of the draw does have a bearing on whether I have a bet or not nowadays. I’m with you on 2-y-o though some people seem to be able to make it pay. When I was a member of Smartsig a gentleman called Peter May I think was excellent with his ratings for 2 year olds. Maybe its something I should look in to further. I quite enjoy the challenge of trying to find new ways of looking for winners although I don’t really have the time to go into things too deeply at present with having a little one to entertain.Having said that after 9 o’clock I’m usually allowed to disappear upstairs if there is some programme the other half wants to watch, so maybe I should discipline myself to a certain period of time each week to do the research. You never know I might finally get that 7 horse accumulator up and it’ll all be worthwhile. And then again………….

[MDeering]

Southwell Thursday

SOUTHWELL Acceptances on Thursday 14 February , 2008
NON TAB MEETING :
1-0.40 SOUTHWELL-RACECOURSE.CO.UK APPRENTICE HANDICAP (1600)
7656 (4 years & older)
No Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Penalty Handicapper
Rating
1 TODWICK OWL J GIVEN M DAVIES 3 58.5
2 GENERAL FEELING S T MASON D CANNON 7 58
3 SIR BOND (IRE) G OLDROYD N LAWES (a3.0) 5 57.5
4 TINA’S RIDGE (IRE) R HOLLINSHEAD D PROBERT (a5.0) 2 56
5 WELCOME RELEAF P LEECH M COUMBE (a7.0) 8 56
6 ABBEYGATE T KEDDY A MORGAN (a5.0) 4 53.5
7 SPARKY VIXEN C J TEAGUE JAMIE KYNE (a5.0) 1 53.5
8 GOVERNMENT (IRE) M CHAPMAN M J J MURPHY (a7.0) 6 53.5
9 PAWN IN LIFE R CARR D HESLOP 9 53

2-1.10 DINE IN QUEEN THE MOTHER RESTAURANT CLAIMING STAKES (2400)
7656 (4 years & older)
No Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Penalty Handicapper
Rating
1 SIMPLE JIM (FR) A BROWN A ELLIOTT 1 58.5
2 MY FRIEND FRITZ P HIATT P MAKIN 4 58
3 CRITICAL STAGE J FROST H FROST (a5.0) 3 57
4 MARIA ANTONIA P BLOCKLEY M NEM (a7.0) 2 55
5 MATINEE IDOL MRS S LAMYMAN C CATLIN 5 55

3-1.40 YOU’LL LOVE DEALS ON PONTINS.COM MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STKS (2400)
8242 (4 years to 6years)
No Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Penalty Handicapper
Rating
1 HUGGLE P LEECH L JONES 4 60
2 KOFI KAREN GEORGE J O’DWYER (a3.0) 2 60
3 RED FAMA N BYCROFT C CATLIN 3 58.5
4 THE DIAMOND BOND G OLDROYD S O’HARA (a5.0) 5 58.5
5 DOT’S DELIGHT K J BURKE D MCKEOWN 1 56

4-2.15 LOVE IS IN AIR AT PONTIN’S SELLING STAKES (1600)
7656 (4 years & older)
No Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Penalty Handicapper
Rating
1 LOUISIADE J A HARRIS M COUMBE (a7.0) 2 58.5
2 ART OF BEING (IRE) M CHAPMAN P DONAGHY (a7.0) 1 56
3 LOCAL POET OLLIE PEARS J MORIARTY (a3.0) 5 56
4 MUSIC CELEBRE (IRE) S CURRAN P DOE 7 56
5 PRE EMINANCE (IRE) L R JAMES R KENNEMORE (a5.0) 4 56
6 SHIFTY J O’KEEFFE P HANAGAN 6 56
7 STEPASIDE A BROWN S BUSHBY (a7.0) 3 56
8 LILY LA BELLE A CARROLL L JONES 8 53.5

5-2.50 MY HEART BELONGS TO PONTIN’S HANDICAP (1000)
11189 (4 years & older)
No Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Penalty Handicapper
Rating
1 SPOOF MASTER S A CALLAGHAN J CROWLEY 2 59
2 KELAMON M USHER P HILLS (a5.0) 7 59
3 GRAND PALACE D SHAW D MCKEOWN 4 57
4 TAG TEAM J A HARRIS M COUMBE (a7.0) 5 57
5 PROUD KILLER J JENKINS C CATLIN 3 56.5
6 SAVILE’S DELIGHT (IRE) T DASCOMBE R KINGSCOTE 1 53.5
7 OVERSTAYED M MULLINEAUX J MCAULEY (a3.0) 6 53
8 ASTORYGOESWITHIT G BRAVERY L JONES 8 52.5

6-3.25 EVERYBODY LOVES PONTIN’S BRILLIANT BLUE COATS HANDICAP (1400)
11189 (4 years & older)
No Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Penalty Handicapper
Rating
1 HAROLDINI J BALDING T DEAN (a3.0) 2 59
2 MUSIC NOTE (IRE) MISS G KELLEWAY HAYLEY TURNER 5 58.5
3 ELUSIVE DREAMS (USA) D SHAW D MCKEOWN 4 57
4 SILVER HOTSPUR M WIGHAM F NORTON 6 57
5 KENSINGTON P EVANS J DOYLE 3 54
6 DANCING DUO D SHAW P DONAGHY (a7.0) 1 52.5

7-3.55 ARENA LEISURE PLC HANDICAP (1600)
8242 (3 years only)
No Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Penalty Handicapper
Rating
1 HAWA KHANA (IRE) N LITTMODEN KIRSTY MILCZAREK (a3.0) 1 61
2 HITS ONLY TIME J PEARCE D MCKEOWN 3 59
3 RHODE ISLAND RED H DUNLOP R KINGSCOTE 2 58.5
4 PLAKA (FR) W BRISBOURNE L JONES 7 57.5
5 TEN SPOT (IRE) STEF LIDDIARD M FENTON 6 56
6 TOBOUGGORNOTOBOUGG D SHAW T DEAN (a3.0) 4 52.5
7 CORAL SHORES P HIATT C CATLIN 5 52.5

This is the meeting’s list from the RSB in Oz

Most likely that the first four races will be carded down under so I am after some opinions on sweeping them all

[Maxilon 5]

You never know I might finally get that 7 horse accumulator up and it’ll all be worthwhile.

I do something similar every Saturday, Aaron. It’s known as a pension bet. I reckon it will hit one day. I’d like to do something for the summer though, as a group. Heffo had Pricestupid last year which I enjoyed – but I’m never attempting a Segal again (the losing runs are phenomenal and the impact they have on your confidence; well, you know). If you have a better idea than sprint handicaps, let me know.

Mr Deering, hi. I live in Southwell and bet there every meeting, as do other contributors. I’ll do some work tonight and let you know – a couple have already bounced off the screen.

Day off today. Best of luck.

[Author]

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