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6.50 Kempton. 7f Claiming Stakes.
As AW claimers go, this isn’t a bad one, but there’s a horse to consider which may be overpriced.
The raging hot favourite Danetime Lord was tipped here a while back when second at 14/1 to the bang in-form rabbit, Red Romeo. Since then, I’ve watched him closely and am of the opinion that Ryan’s animal does not quite get home over 7f. A lay if I ever saw one at 11/10.
The other horses are not win material. The consistent Dickie La Davoir and Chatshow are a little better over shorter and Seneschal (from a good, in form AW stable) is better over further. Galaxy Stars might need it and Suhayl Star doesn’t look good enough.
This leaves Love on Sight who is currently drifting like the Kontiki and has been all morning.
This one was beaten two necks by hot Champions Day winner Miss Lucifer and top quality Johnston improver Lovelace at Haydock last year!. Whatever the weight, what would these two do to the field on display tonight?
She has run once on the AW and finished runner up in a race at Lingers. She runs best fresh – 23 – after a plus 60 day break. Her class history includes C2, C3 and a juvenile Group three race sixth behind Scarlet Runner. Tonight, she’s up against some dull AW stalwarts running under sub-optimum conditions. She perches on a meaty 20/1 as I type.
Of course, the drift means she might just be sick and they want rid of her, but I’m willing to take the chance.
Cheers Max.
Max
I would go for Seneschal in the 650 although as you say is possibly better over further. I am like you don’t care for the favourite and yours would take a little leap of faith for me to consider. Best of luck anyway.
I have had a look at all of tonights racing and my best bet would be Turners Touch EW in the 850. C&D is perfect and if fit enough after its break I would be hopeful of at least a place.
Others to catch the eye are
620 Wizby
720 Grey Gurkha f/c Under Fire
820 Royal Envoy f/c Dvinsky t/c Littledodayno
920 Noah Jameel f/c Wee Wee CharlieThe Jarvis horse needed the race bigtime, hence the drift and probably isn’t the same horse too. Danetime just cannot quicken at the end of 7f; the formbook tells you all that and yet another race did. I’d try the horse at Southwell over 6f myself.
No real harm done though. Best of luck with those, Aaron. I’m done for the day.
I hope you backed a few of those, Aaron.
Some good tipping there, sah.Southwell notes tomoz for Mr Deering. I’ve seen quite a few worse meetings and if you concentrate on the first three in the betting, you shouldn’t lose too much tomorrow. Any horses name in bold (or italics) I personally fancy – which is not necessarily a good thing LOL.
Race 1: Abbeygate 1415542 same conditions including todays Class 6. Danger is Sir Bond, who is more of a banded animal.
Race 2: Maria Antonia 12771 has close to optimum conditions, but I’d much rather back Simple Jim at a much bigger price – never put in the race at any stage on Tuesday and all the connections were at the racecourse. Backed in the morning and backed at big odds with the bookies. Expect a much better run.
Race 3: Red Fama should win this poor race.
Race 4: Stepaside. Stable companion of Simple Jim. A spectacular but worthy plodder. E/W bet to nothing at 5/1 and 3lb better off with Louisade on last months running.
Race 5: I’m backing the three outside draws here which are Kelamon, Overstayed and Astorygoeswithit in singles, forecasts and tricasts. The inside is a quagmire and these have a better chance than it looks. But it’s a take your pick race, really and I might be wildly off.
Race 6: Haroldini 2222113 for 7f at Southwell
Silver Hotspur 11 same conditionsRace 7: Hawa Kwana: 312 for Southwell and favourite.
Race 5 is a nightmare, but otherwise, you could string a few of these options together for a cheap fun bet. Best of luck.
We’re only covering the opening three races on the card tonight Max.
The local radio’s international tipster (whom I am jealous of, but am aware I can perform better than) has selected:
Race 1: General Feeling to beat Sir Bond and Government.
Race 2: Maria Antonia – a special.
Race 3: Red Fama, which he insisted was some value. I question "value" in a 5-horse race
Good luck Max!
Max
Thanks. What I sometimes do is bet my second choices in a yankee or whatever and the one that was second in the last (beaten by my first choice!) let me down for a four fold. Still winners at 4/1, 9/2 (Smokey The Bear) and 11/1 was very nice thank you very much.
For Southwell
Race 1 – I like the look of Sparky Vixen. If she runs a similar level to LTO she’ll go well. Pawn In Life for the f/c, running respectably recently and Abbeygate for the t/c who again has been running well recently but might just find one or two to good again today.
Race 5 – Spoof Master just missed out last time and if running to that level again will take the beating. For the f/c I’m taking a hance on Kelamon. Good run LTO over 7F and maybe the drop in trip and a decent pace will suit today. Consistent Grand Palace for the t/c
Race 6 – Between Silver Hotspur & Haroldini and I prefer the former.
Race 7 – Ten Spot for me. Ran well on its first visit to Southwell LTO and if reproducing is well up to taking this.
I’m still quite gobsmacked – and heartened – that there is an International tipster in Oz who selects at Southwell.
I’m off there this afternoon to recoup Tuesday losses.Aaron, I wouldn’t put you off Ten Spot. That one’s been niggling at me since last night. One thing about Spoof Master though: how much of that massive punt are the Callaghan Gang going to recoup at 7/4? I think there’s another day for this one – though Bo McGinty has boosted the form since. And that inside track is rice pudding again. Kelamon will love the conditions and is a massive price on his Windsor soft ground efforts.
Anyroad, best of luck.
When I break through in this industry Max, I’ll be reporting on and selecting from tracks all across the globe. This is my unbreakable passion.
Max – interestingly, I’ve ended up with two of your three horses in the 5th at Southwell – Kelamon and Overstayed. Kelamon has much better course form than his current market assessment implies, and Overstayed has put in really decent figures elsewhere and will be bang there if acting on the track.
For the record, my Southwell picks/placepot selections are:
R1 – Welcome Releaf (nice comeback run and has the form to take this if avoiding the bounce) & Pawn In Life (well treated pensioner who has ideal conditions and a bit of recent form)
R2 – Copped out and put all five in. Not sure about Maria Antonia because of the inexperienced jockey, and agree that Simple Jim might go well
R3 – Red Fama (amazingly has the best recent form – it could only be Southwell, almost) & Kofi (overly big RP tissue price might put plenty off, so could just be a placepot skinner – won’t need much to go close)
R4 – Louisiade (not bomb-proof, but highly likely to finish 1st or 2nd due to lack of credible opposition – Shifty almost made some appeal but has been running weakly)
R5 – Kelamon & Overstayed (as mentioned above)
R6 – Haroldini (great course record and 7f ideal) & Kensington (running well, has course form, stable going well, and makes more appeal than Silver Hotspur from the Wigham yard who tend to prefer penalty kicks)
Not much to like about Wolves tonight but I might do some doubles & trebles to small stakes on the following
650 Weetfromthechaff
750 Mighty Mover
820 The Salwick Flyer
850 Opera Writer
920 BlackheathAaron, I hope you backed Sparky Vixen too! Tell me you did!!
I forecasted the second and third!!!
I also backed Ten Spot to get me out on a bad day; hope you did.It’s a good job I was nowhere near a PC after young Master Elliot’s tepid flap aboard Simple Jim. I was angrier than I had been for a good while.
I got 12.5 to good money earlier on, tipped it to a couple of friends, and felt confident when the Browns backed it before the off into 8’s. I’m not sure the young jockey will be getting too many jobs with the Brown stable in the future – but hey, that’s racing isn’t it!! 7/4 next time out and the chicken has left the coop.
Read Race 5 terribly LOL. Best of luck with those tonight!
Max
Yes I did manage to back them both, glad you managed to recoup on Ten Spot. After being my strongest AW track Wolves seems to have gone down the pan for me recently so I’m not too hopeful about tonight. Shouldn’t have bet really but I’m a bit of a mug
NV, bad luck with that. It was a tough day at Southwell yesterday and lots of punters were scratching their heads – though the professionals got stuck into Louisade as if the UK was just about to enter an era of prohibition.
I was particularly disappointed with the runs of Kelamon and Overstayed, who were reasonably well backed. (Incidentally, it was embarrassing how badly I read that race. And expensive. I forecasted, exacted, tricasted and trifected the top three draws in that sprint as well as betfaired them singly at good prices. Oops, as they say.)
Anyone fancy anything at Lingers?
1.45 Musango
2.45 Solicitude ran well over C&D in November and has been pretty consistent since culminating in a win LTO at Wolves. Have Double Valentine for the f/c who has been running creditably at Kempton although could be that this one is better at 6F.
3.55 Miss Mujana at a decent price for me in this one. Should be prominent throughout and with a strong pace likely to be set by Rapidity should be well positioned to break her duck. Hucking Hero to finish from off the pace for the f/c.
4.30 Benllech to continue its good run of form. Chjimes to chase him home if reproducing latest run
5.00 Prince Of Medina has course form, distance is OK and generally runs well in small fields.
I’ve gone in heavily on Hucking Heat to beat Vettorenjoy in a match bet at Lingfield 3.55. Really don’t like the form of Vettorenjoy’s maiden and think his superiority was exaggerated by the weakening of the fav who has since done the same again. Hucking Heat is looks pretty reliable round here and has Baker doing the steering 1 from 1 on him and is different class as n all-weather jockey to Urbina.
Best of luck with those team.
Some Lingfield notes:
1.45 Musango 153113 Lingfield 1m4f. Has won in Class 5 and unbeaten in sellers.
3.20 Copperbottomed.2231 7f in small fields
3.55 Hucking Hero 63114 in Class 4: 311 Lingfield, Class 4 over a mile.
4.30 Benllech 1112 Lingfield 6f. (Runner up in Class 4) Lord of the Reins also good figures. 113.
Cheers
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