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In the moonlit nightcap at Kempton Critical Stage holds every chance. The topweight loves Kempton and two miles; form over C/D under Hadden Frost is 23213. Jimmy Frost’s horse appears to dislike Lingfield and it’s my guess he dislikes Wolverhampton too – hence the poor last time out run. But he loves that long straight at the Sunbury course.
There is a lovely piece of collateral form through the improving Dark Parade who, on the third of November, gave weight and a severe beating to tonights opponents Ronsard and Haatmey. Yet Dark Parade was hammered out of sight by Critical Stage the last time the two horses met. Somehow, Ronsard and Haatmen are shorter in the betting? Go figure. More, he’s a Class 5 horse running in a Class 6 race; a key factor on the AW. Best of luck. Max.
Hi Max
You make a good case for Critical Stage and I agree out of the older horses he makes the most appeal. I’ve thrown a few quid at Serhaaphim. Some people might see the trainer change as a negative but personally I don’t, I’m quite a fan of Norman King and if he has Serhaaphim in good shape I think she should go close. Still open to improvement at this sort of trip as a half-sister to Shabernak and the Nottingham form behind Franchoek has been franked by not just the winner but also the second and the fourth. Good luck.
Hi DJ,
Forgiving a horse a bad run can be expensive – I think CS finished second last and stopped as if shot. Suspiciously weak in the betting too, so it wasn’t a dislike of Wolverhampton which caused the bad run last time. Probably had enough for the season.
Seraaphim ran well for the place money – though the winner was both expected and well in, by the looks of it.
2:50 Lingfield 15/11/2007 – 10f 3yo Fillies Handicap (Class 3)[/color:16ydji47]
Only six runners for this handicap and no guarantee of any lightning pace.
SILCA KEY – theoretically well in compared to her turf mark but this seems to be mostly as a result of a mid-field finish in a weakish Listed event and she hasn’t appeared particularly suited by polytrack thus far. Based purely on ‘all-weather’ form, she has no chance off this mark and is very badly in with Candy Mountain based on the last time they met. Early support puts some doubt in my mind but looks to represent terrible value to these eyes.
CANDY MOUNTAIN – finished well in front of Silca Key over this distance at Kempton at the start of last month and reopposes on 7lb better terms. That race looks pretty weak however, and she seems a quirky sort who does nothing quickly – making Lingfield far from the ideal track.
BAYLINI – consistent and seemed to get the trip well enough last time. Not badly treated but one win and five close up finishes from six polytrack starts suggests a vulnerability in the closing stages which might be being exposed by the way these races tend to pan out. Doesn’t appeal for win purposes based on strike-rate given her obvious ability.
MUSIC REVIEW – two wins over the stiff 12 furlongs at Beverley and a best polytrack effort over the same trip at Kempton suggest that she probably lacks the latent speed for this contest. However, from a stable still in reasonable form and with the highest Topspeed figure of any of these, she is of some interest. This is boosted by the fact that with no obvious pace, she may be able to grab an uncontested lead and tow the field along, gradually winding things up from the front. Whilst that is not normally a successful tactic at Lingfield, this race might just be tailor-made for her.
LAWYERS CHOICE – yet to run a poor race this year, potentially still improving, and, as a 7f winner, ought to be suited by sitting just off a moderate pace and coming late. There are slight question marks about the extra distance (which might not matter if the early fractions are slow) and the form of the Eddery stable, but the likelihood is that she will run her race again and be thereabouts with a furlong to run.
WORLDS HEROINE – looks to be better suited by turf than artificial surfaces, and is badly treated on turf, so with stamina unproven and two weak performances to bounce back from, she looks very hard to fancy.
Conclusion
If, as seems entirely possible, MUSICAL REVIEW is allowed to lead, she might just be able to pile on the pressure through the second part of the race and catch out some quirky rivals. Lawyers Choice will probably challenge in the straight and might take this if her suspect stamina doesn’t give out – she rates the main danger.MUSICAL REVIEW – £3 win
MUSICAL REVIEW & LAWYERS CHOICE – 2 x £1.50 R/F/C[/color:16ydji47]Unlucky NV. Why is it so difficult to make all at Lingfield? Never seen anything like it.
The Chamberlain horse in the 2yo maiden made most in the second race too I think. Unlucky with that NV, Hanagan undid all the good work of riding them to sleep by staying on the treacle like inside rail. For some reason it definitely looks to be riding slower (I’ve no proof that it is) than the rest of the track. Though most of the jockeys, unless they are looking to lay one, have started coming wide. It’s interesting to note the chunks that go up to lay in-running those that race on the inner of the track.
Not had a real good luck at tomorrows action as I’m off to Cheltenham, but Baba Ghanoush looks worth a dabble at double figures in the 3.20. I was convinced they were pissing about with this horse earlier in the year and the owner has had lots of recent success with horses that have switched to Akehurst from William Jarvis. Any money for this could prove significant.
Also think War of the Roses has a weak handicap in him and he finds himself in one of those at 3.50. Didn;t have the race run to suit last time and his earlier run over course and distance, behind Magic Show, has worked out well.
2.00 Lingfield Traphalgar
Looks sure to improve for the step up in trip in a race where few make great appeal. The form pick Fathsta looks a sprinter whilst there’s little in Hucking Hero’s pedigree to suggest he wants 1m. There’s little between Traphalgar and Silent Master on their running here last time but the Cole horse looks more likely to find greatest improvement for the extra yardage given the way they travelled that day, though Silent Master’s pedigree indicates this trip and middle distances will suit at 3.
Good bet the other day, DJ. In form?
Believe it or not, I’ve spent the last three hours carving up the Lingers card tomorrow and got nowhere. Nowhere. I’m frustrated, I want to play – but I can hardly ever find a solid Saturday bet at the track, such is the competitive nature of the racing there.
Muglike, I’ve had bets nevertheless on Adam Eterno (Drowne replacing an unknown apprentice, terrible field, big price; back in a seller for the first time since his last victory; a slipped saddle and a stalls accident fouling up the last two starts), and Little Edward, who is outclassed, but will be suited by the pace of the race; beautifully drawn, well priced in relation to tomorrow’s task and a horse who loves the course and distance. Unlike a few of the others.
Not sure Wolver will be on tomorrow night after tonight’s debacle. AW? I should cocoa. Cheers and good luck.
I was very keen to have a get in the listed sprint at Lingield because I don’t like the front 2 and they are taking out 40% of the book. I think this is a prep for Hong Kong with Desert Lord and they are going to try and settle him in behind to help him see out an extra 1f in top company whilst Borderlescott has no experience around a left hand bend and keeps finding one too good. I agree the race is set up for a closer and for that reason I think Bonus is fairly priced at 9/2. Hopefully he’ll be able to stalk the pace and pounce in the last half furlong.
If it lasts that long I’ll be on Giddywell in the 8.55 at Wolverhampton. She’s dropped to a handy mark now and her close third to Alonso de Guzman over course and distance was a good effort, particularly as I thought the 2 that were just infront of her got first run to an extent. There’s nothing in the field that looks at all unexposed and a reproduction of that form gives her a decent chance at 7/1 I think,
Good luck.
Well done with Traphalgar david!
2:45 Lingfield
Although most horses act ok on the polytrack, actually being able to win decent races is still something of a specialism, and the angle I see here is to go with proven Lingfield form rather than the classy turf sprinters – it might not work out, but could provide a decent divvy if it does…As such, I am leaving out Desert Lord, Knot In Wood and Borderlescott – all very good horses but (mostly) on turf thus far.
Murfreesboro looks to have gone and both Expensive Art is well outclassed. Neither Little Edward or Ajigolo looks well enough treated on these terms despite both being capable performers and in form – neither would be the biggest surprise ever but I feel there are better options here…
Namely the remaining trio of Maltese Falcon (ran well last time when beaten less than half a length and from an in-form Cole yard), Bonus (stays well and will be suited by coming from off a decent pace), and, slightly more speculatively, Woodnook (gets a handy fillies allowance and might be the ‘dark horse’ given her ideal conditions).
Selection
BONUS, MALTESE FALCON, WOODNOOK – 6 x £1 Exacta comb [/color:qxvc2ba5]The prodigal son returns!
Apologies all. Work commitments and some personal problems have ment racing had to take a back seat recently. Now things are stabilising on both counts I shall be joining the fun .. .if you will have me back
Welcome back, Slippery!!
For me Class is the most important aspect of picking winners on the AW. In the 4.40 at Wolver, we have a Class 5 contest where only five horses regularly compete at that level. The other eight are flying a grade too high and would be more comfortable in a Class 6 or the increasingly rare Banded races. So that eliminates every horse from – and including – Metal Guru downward.
Of the remaining five, Linda Green and Jord are drawn wide and will either drop in or face the centrifuge. Another Genepi has a chance, but five runs below 7f have delivered one place and it might be all too quick for the forecast favourite. Sweet Pickle has never won consecutive races in her entire career and could miss the kick – but if she doesn’t, she has a good chance.
This leaves the gypsy job horse Tilly’s Dream who ran so well at Ascot in a much better race than this behind Godfrey Street. Trained in the past by "shrewd" characters such as Greg Chung and the resting P McEntee, and now with Giles Bravery, the three time winning daughter of Arkadian Hero ran well last time when catching the eye late on over track and trip behind Cerebus. Today, drawn beautifully in six, I’m anticipating a big run. Adam Kirby takes over from a run of the mill apprentice and she’s a big price, (around 14/1).
Bets: Tillys Dream EW. Tricast/Forecasts: Tillys/Genepi/Pickle
Good luck!!
Welcome back Mr Toad. Good result there Max. I forsee a profitable winter for thread followers!
Kempton
7.20 Listed Digibet Com Hyde Stakes
I’m going to oppose Appalachian Trail as I feel his best form requires a straight track and a strong pace. With Babodana the only one injecting any pace in this race, he wont be able to cut through the field in the final furlong as other horses weaken.
To oppose I going to side with Very Wise, who had excuses last time “reportedly vet said gelding had an irregular heartbeatâ€
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