- This topic has 1,252 replies, 73 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 3 months ago by
.
- Posts
Quote: from slipperytoad on 11:26 am on Feb. 17, 2007[br]Lingfield
2:05 1m – pontinsbingo.com Conditions Stakes (Class 2)
3/1 Party Boss, 7/2 Red Spell, 9/2 Orchard Supreme, 5/1 Ceremonial Jade
Hmmmm. The front two on my tissue have form on the board in level weight contests, so cant understand why they are drifting on the exchanges. Long may the drift continue. At the odds I’ll back Party Boss who is rated higher on polytrack and see if I can get anyone on the exchanges to match my price on Red Spell.
3:50 5f – Pontin’s Family Holidays Handicap (Class 2)
5/2 Maltese Falcon, 3/1 Turn On The Style, 6/1 Qadar, 10/1 Distinctly Game, 20/1 Total Impact
Drawn in stall 3 and 1 respectively front-runners Maltese Falcon and Turn On The Style will be eyeballing each other the whole race. Conventional handicapping would suggest that they’ll cut each other throats and both will finish out of the frame. Not in this race, both of these runners have the class to "make all" however one of them will blink, fold under the pace pressure and the other will go onto win. Fortunately both are too short in the market, which stops me backing the wrong one.
Of the outsiders, I really like the unexposed Total Impact who runs well fresh and gets his favoured ground today (each-way)
In terms of exotics if I continue with the pace logic above, avoiding the obvious exacta (Maltese Falcon or Turn On The Style to beat each other or Qadar) I’ll shoot for one of the front two to beat one of the outsiders
A. Maltese Falcon B. Turn On The Style C. Distinctly Game D. Total Impact
AB/CD exacta
(Edited by slipperytoad at 11:27 am on Feb. 17, 2007)<br>
Bloody hell! Whenever I back your selections they lose and when I don’t they romp in. Very nice work.
Bloody Hell.. :angry:  Just got back from Basketball to watch the replay of the 3:50 race.. wish I’d followed my own advice FSL..
Hooray – some decent sandpit action at last. Now, where to start?
2:30 Lingfield (7f Class 2 Handicap)
Ajigolo – looks an unlikely stayer even over this easy 7f trip and hitherto has been best suited by much smaller fields.
Wavertree Warrior – all wins to date have come between April and July. Does act here but record of 1 win from 11 sand starts is uninspiring, stable form is no more than adequate and this marks looks high enough in the context of recent efforts.
Mafaheem – goes well fresh but sold for only £5k last summer and has not raced for almost 2 years so looks unlikely this time.
Tony James – stable have another runner who has returned to decent form, and this entire has recorded some nice speed figures in the rear of some very good races. This trip is fine and he looks very interesting at a price.
Two Step Kid – 1 from 1 here (2yo debut) but really should have run much better at Wolverhampton in January and a truly run race might stretch his stamina.
Marajaa – come from behind racing style means luck will be needed but the yard is back in form and the wide draw might just be an advantage if he can hold a pitch without getting outpaced. Has a chance but well tipped-up and hardly a value option.
Saviours Spirit – immensely consistent but 6f looks ideal and might not be able to find much in the last 100yds which will spell curtains in such a competitive event.
Waterside – acts here but course win record is nothing special (3 from 20) and the widest draw is no help to this prominent runner. Has been doing well but doesn’t make particular appeal here.
Humongous – no record of running well fresh and connections seem intent on campaigning him over further (hard to be confident of his best trip). Quite likely that he will not be ready or able to get involved here.
Bomber Command – acts here but best efforts are at Kempton and although he will probably not be disgraced, this looks a stiff mark.
Tufton – ex-Godolphin and unexposed but has never raced on sand, looked potentially a short runner based on his two runs to date, and has been off for 18 month. Not likely to win but a decent effort might make him interesting next time for this promising yard.<br><br>Moayed – versatile performer who might be on a good mark but hasn’t managed a really decent effort since last March and would have been more tempting with better stable form.
Orchard Supreme – mostly a consistent performer but has looked better suited buy a mile than 7f recently. Ran ok when a beaten favourite in a good little race last time but no guarantee he will confirm placings with Tony James who is a whopping 19lbs better off for 3 lengths!
Conclusion/Recommendation<br>Tony James looks to be very interesting at decent odds (albeit some massive early value has disappeared and 14/1 – 16/1 looks more likely now), whilst at the head of the market Marajaa makes much more appeal than anything else in my view.
TONY JAMES – £3 win<br>MARAJAA – £3 win<br>plus 2 x £1 reversed Exacta
Household tasks to do so I’ll be brief
2:30 7f – bonusprint.com Handicap (Class 2)
Tricky handicap. 7 furlongs is a specialist distance so runners who’ve demonstrated this preference will be the focus of my attention
7/2 Bomber Command, 9/2 Marajaa, 6/1 Orchard Supreme, 8/1 Waterside, 12/1 Wavertree Warrior
Bomber Command ran well against a pace bias recently to come 3rd behind Orchard Supreme. Expect tables to be turned today as he drops back in trip as Orchard Supreme is basically slow (in pace terms). However with Waterside injecting a strong pace from stall 13 the race may fall into his lap. Would like to see his price drift a little more though before placing a bet so we’ll see if I can get anyone to match 7/1 on the exchanges.
A. Bomber Command, B. Orchard Supreme, C. Waterside
AB/ABC exacta
3:05 6f – pontins.com Cleves Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1)
Areyoutalkingtome, however not at today’s price.
3:40 1m 2f – Go Pontin’s Winter Derby Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1)
4/1 Mighty, 9/2 Blue Bajan, Grand Passion, 7/1 Cusoon
Going to take on Grand Passion with Mighty if I can get someone on the exchanges to match my price. Otherwise no bet..
I’m not sure I’m going to play in any of these.
2:30 – Down to four, but the draw hardly inspiring for Waterside, Marajaa nor Bomber Command, and Orchard Supreme really looks like he needs the extra furlong round here. Of the four I do like Marajaa best but at a tissue price of 4/1 it’s looking unlikely.
<br>3:05 No reason to desert Areyoutalkingtome – the price is probably fair.<br>
3:40 Put Blue Bajan, Grand passion and Mighty all in at 3s in a tricky race. I’ll sit and ponder.
Looks like I took the sensible option by having a day off – it looked the toughest AW meeting of the year by far.
Good analyses once again chaps.:biggrin:
That’s 8 consecutive losing weeks on the jumps for me.
The All Weather has been a breeze in comparison!
<br>
Well that’s it for the winter season. I’m off to my old stomping grounds of Boise Idaho (USA) to visit some of my old friends who I met during my year secondment by a well known printer company.
By the time I return the All Weather season will be officially over. I doubt that there will many highly graded races on the All Weather during the flat season so my involvement on this thread will cease however over on the blog I shall still make All Weather racing the focus of my attention along with the flat.
As the space capsule (Apollo 13) plunged into the atmosphere, the astronauts did not know if their heat shield would function. Facing the unknown the astronauts strapped in and Jim Lovell, said to his colleagues, "Gentlemen, it’s been a pleasure flying with you."
Thanks Guys.. this thread has been a blast.. :biggrin:
Have a good time in Boise toad.
The thread was terrific, and actually profitable as well!
I’m toying with the idea of a similar one for 2 year olds on the flat (another area I’ve always shunned in the past). Any takers?!
Yep… count me in as I’ve been thinking along the same lines. We may want to use the information at the following URL..
In my opinion – one of the most succesful and insightful threads of the year (if you ignore my posts :cheesy: )
Great thread. Participation has slacked off recently but not through lack if interest, more a case of having nothing to add to such thorough analysis. A 2yo thread would be most interesting I think and I’d certainly look forward to contributing to it.
Well I’ll happily inject some humour by adding my 2yo ratings to the mix:cheesy:.
Have a nice time in Boise, isn’t it quite rural there? (sorry trying to look like I have a clue)
Just in case any one is still reading this, Pawan runs tonight in a low grade sprint at Southwell, (7.20). He’s been mentioned here on more than one occasion.
On paper, this ought to be a track record breaking race. There are six front runners in the field. Trouble is, most are all Class 5 performers, (Effective excepted) and they will surely cut themselves up. If horses like Owed and Count Cougar don’t lead, they don’t run to their optimum. Cool Sands was lucky, (imo) last time and the consensus at the track was Desert Dreamer was unlucky/badly ridden. He’s also up 6lb.
Pawan is a genuine Class 4 runner, (rated 76) and is suited by 6f. Had no chance in a hot Beverley sprint last time and this is more his cup of tea. If Annie can just hold this one up, surely, this is her best chance of the season.
I’m off to watch it. Best of luck.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.