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Can I retract my earlier statement?
In a mad fit (possibly due to boredom at work :angry: ), in the 3:30 I’ll make a small stakes play against the front two in the market with forums selections Chief Commander (Max) and Wessex (Tooting). Should brighten up the afternoon.. :biggrin:
I’m glad my thing was only small stakes for you, Slippery. Came cruising two out on the heels of the ridden market leaders and then found absolutely nothing. Doyle soon gave up the ghost.
The gelding looked fit enough and well enough in the paddock too; sufficient for me to top up at the course at 18/1. Unfortunately – for me and the nine bookmakers present in the freezing cold – it was yet another favourites day on the AW.
It’s got to turn around soon, chaps.:o
Sounds like everyone had a bad day then! Horrible day for me in Dubai and with two e/w bets.:angry:
Think I’ll have a betting free day tomorrow LOL.
I normally assign this grade of race to the blog only, but the 3:50 at Wolverhampton is … interesting..
Here are my comments..
3:50 – Pontin’s Family Holidays Handicap (Class 4)
A race framed within narrow BHB ratings; plus in form well drawn speed horses’ racing around the tight bends of Wolverhampton, this race is a punters nightmare or a cracker depending on which side you swing .. “oooh … suits you sir!â€ÂÂ
Had to post thoughts on Saturday race early. Up with the dawn patrol and off to Colchester tomorrow coaching basketball .. it will be a long day :(
Lingfield 3:40  – Pontin’s Holidays Handicap (Class 2)
5/4 Mighty, 13/8 Cusoon
A co-choice race with Cusoon being the value bet however Mighty is the more progressive of the two and a solid legitimate favourite. I’ll go with gut instincts this time.. No bet… <br>
I’ll go Cusoon – think the two should be closer in the betting than they are, if not quite as close as toad’s tissue.
Cusoon 4pts win at 5/2
Mighty should win this on the formbook but is Atlantic Quest really a 14/1 chance? I don’t think so which is why I’ve backed him to win. I may lay some of it off in running as he can come with a late run and then not go through with it.
Southwell 3:50 – pontins.com Handicap (Class 2)
Red Cape emerges from a “key raceâ€ÂÂ
I was only left with Red Cape when I looked at this briefly. Just a question of price. I’ll wait.
phew! thank god for Desperate Dan. :o
Discussed on the main forum, but did Red Cape bounce?
(Edited by slipperytoad at 4:13 pm on Feb. 13, 2007)
2.40 Lingfield.
Nawow is the interesting one here. He’s run 18 times at Lingers and has won four times, placed seven times at a variety of distances.
Tomorrow’s jockey, Dane O Neill, has ridden the horse on six occasions and won three times and placed twice.
1 3 7 2 1 1
While he has never won a Class 4 at Lingers, Nawow has placed and I’ve seen stronger 4’s round here with some unreliable types in opposition.
The wide draw is no bar as Nawow needs holding up and with Valance in first time blinkers from the one draw, under the one dimensional rabbit Seb Sanders, there will be no shortage of pace.
Nawow stays further than tomorrows ideal trip and if ever there was a race designed for a horse, tomorrow is it. I’m hoping for 7/1 and will back it each way.
In the 3.50, I’m hoping Classic Encounter has benefited from his recent run on  the polytrack. Simcock’s sprinter is highly thought of, had good form at two, and the stable have booked Richard Hughes. The usual suspects, (which you guys have a line on), are in opposition including Maltese Falcon and Qadar.  14/1 might look pretty big at half time tomorrow.
Sel: Nawow  (EW)  7/1<br>    Classic Encounter (Win) 14/1
Best of luck
Max
In the 3:50 I’m stubbornly sticking with Qadar ;). It always seems to be a fair price in my opinion, and given that there should be plenty of pace on offer today, it should place at least barring a hard luck story.
Lingfield
2:05 1m – pontinsbingo.com Conditions Stakes (Class 2)
3/1 Party Boss, 7/2 Red Spell, 9/2 Orchard Supreme, 5/1 Ceremonial Jade
Hmmmm. The front two on my tissue have form on the board in level weight contests, so cant understand why they are drifting on the exchanges. Long may the drift continue. At the odds I’ll back Party Boss who is rated higher on polytrack and see if I can get anyone on the exchanges to match my price on Red Spell.
3:50 5f – Pontin’s Family Holidays Handicap (Class 2)
5/2 Maltese Falcon, 3/1 Turn On The Style, 6/1 Qadar, 10/1 Distinctly Game, 20/1 Total Impact
Drawn in stall 3 and 1 respectively front-runners Maltese Falcon and Turn On The Style will be eyeballing each other the whole race. Conventional handicapping would suggest that they’ll cut each other throats and both will finish out of the frame. Not in this race, both of these runners have the class to "make all" however one of them will blink, fold under the pace pressure and the other will go onto win. Fortunately both are too short in the market, which stops me backing the wrong one.
Of the outsiders, I really like the unexposed Total Impact who runs well fresh and gets his favoured ground today (each-way)
In terms of exotics if I continue with the pace logic above, avoiding the obvious exacta (Maltese Falcon or Turn On The Style to beat each other or Qadar) I’ll shoot for one of the front two to beat one of the outsiders
A. Maltese Falcon B. Turn On The Style C. Distinctly Game D. Total Impact
AB/CD exacta
(Edited by slipperytoad at 11:27 am on Feb. 17, 2007)
I don’t like either of these two races much I’m afraid (maybe because I looked at them after the other 15 races I’ve priced up this morning!).
Orchard Supreme was my favourite for the 2:05, but I can’t be interested at the price. He also has Hughes on board and I’ve vowed never again to put on proper sums when he rides a hold-up horse.
As for the sprint, I think Toad has this spot on – the two front-runners may well go off too fast but who exactly is going to catch them, especially with the ones I like drawn wide. Of the two I prefer Maltese Falcon and if he drifts much beyond 3s I’ll probably play, otherwise I’ll watch. <br>
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