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Qadar is a lay for me @ 2.1 or less, I’m putting up a request and hopefully I’ll get matched (currently trading at 2.3).
Good luck all.
I’ve also layed Qadar – I’ve lost enough money backing the horse – I’ve decided to lay it to win everything back, plus a bit extra on top :biggrin:
well done all with either a lay (Qadar) or play (Waterside) at Southwell! Another one bites the dust for the sand boys … hic.. :biggrin: (had a few tonight..)
1.30 Lingfield
Franksalot will be my bet here. City for conquest is a horse I’ve been waiting to oppose.
Is tomorrow at Southwell the toughest card of the year so far? Can I get Medici Code beaten? Your thoughts would be gratefully recieved lads!:biggrin:
I’m not sure whether this counts as an AW bet, but the good thing tomorrow for me is Parasol on the carnival sands, (NAS 5.25).
Although beaten by several of tomorrows field last time out, (including the quirky but loveable Impeller), Parasol was having its first run for nine months and at the age of seven, was likely to need it.
An ex-Mick Channon sand specialist in two countries, a beautiful traveller running over its best distance of 10f, ridden by Doug Watson’s main man Richard Mullen, and with Group 2 form behind Electrocutionist on his CV, this horse is no 10/1 shot in a handicap.
His run two weeks ago was over an inadequate distance (9f) and there will be plenty of pace tomorrow for Parasol to sit behind.  Well drawn against the rail too.
The trainer also runs an improving sort, Dynamic Saint, as near favourite, but this one has a lot to prove at this level. Godolphin jolly Descartes could be anything, but I’d rather save on ex-Stoute inmate Grain of Truth on his first run in Dubai.
Cannot see Parasol being out the frame. He says. However, I am currently 0 – 8 at the Carnival – and that’s places, not wins.:biggrin: So feel free to lay! On the other hand, February is another month…
Sel: Parasol. Forecast 10/1
Good luck tomorrow all.
I like these 5f sprints at Southwell as usually anything that cannot sit handy can be discounted. The one that makes most appeal each-way at the prices in Garlogs in the 1.20. His record over course and distance reads 3211224. The latest effort was in a very well contested race by Class 6 standards last time, form which has already begun to look solid. He’s currently trading at 8/1 and makes sound appeal. Count Cougar is obviously the one to beat but is priced accordingly, though he may be vulnerable back at the minimum trip for all he’s shown good speed the last twice.
Will probably throw a few quid at The Leather Wedge at 20’s+ on betfair in the second division of that race for similar reasons, plenty of early toe and as I think he’s about twice the price he should be, I’ll look to lay off at around 10’s for a free bet at around that price.
4:25 Southwell
This is a moderate handicap with few solid competitors, but is of interest to me because of the presence of one horse who I think will go well and a likely favourite who I think won’t.
Mind Alert – well handicapped and in form but doesn’t win very often these days and has managed just 2 seconds and 2 thirds from 16 course runs. Hold-up style means the inside draw is a disadvantage, and looks very short at around 11/4. Opposable.
Grand View – 11 years old now, but suited by this course and distance and ran an eyecatching race 5 days ago over an inadequate 5 furlongs. Kind of held up and kind of outpaced on that occasion, he made good headway inside the last 300 yards and wasn’t put under too much pressure when it became clear he wasn’t going to win. That looks an excellent prep race for today, the Weymes yard is in reasonable form, and even though he is being quite well supported, I’d be hopeful of getting around 11/2.
Nothing stands out in the rest of the field as a cast-iron improver or anything, so although anything is possible (a couple of runners have new headgear) I’m happy to have a go at this race.
Recommendation (£15.00)
GRAND VIEW – £9 win
GRAND VIEW to beat {Majestical, Navigation, Layed Back Rocky, Fancy You} – 4 x 90p Exactas & 12 x 20p Tricasts
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3:25 5f – Bonusprint.com Handicap (Class 2)
15/8 Areyoutalkingtome, 100/30 Qadar, 5/1 Maltese Falcon
Areyoutalkingtome. Even thorough he’s dropping back in trip, A clear run after the final turn and devastating turn of foot should ensure another win. As the name of the game is profit I’ll couple (dutch) using Qadar as I feel he is undervalued in the market and take a risky approach in the tricast.
Maltese Falcon has been dumped in the coffin box again, (stall 1). Given his prominent running style and perceived advantageous post position, he’ll try and dominate the race from the off.. With a strong late pace track bias at Lingfield, the prediction (and risk I’ll take) is that he’ll be passed in the final furlong and finish off the board.
Avoiding all the obvious tricast combinations the perm is as follows ….
A. Areyoutalkingtome, B. Qadar, C. One More Round, D. Classic Encounter, E. Harry Up, F. First Order
A/BC/BCDEF 8 lines @ 50p = £4
Looks a tricky race Toad.
Areyoutalkingtome – trip doubt (though he’s stuffed that back in our faces all winter).
Qadar – trip doubt though he should get the pace he needs. (By the way, personally I wasn’t overly taken with the ride the other day when the money was on the other one).
Maltese Falcon – not sure about the draw not suiting, and he can make all here, but there looks to be contenders for the lead.
Moorhouse Lad – also possible front runner and new surface to contend with.
Tricky tissue accordingly.<br>Areyoutalkingtome 5/2<br>Qadar 5/1<br>Maltese Falcon 5/1<br>Moorhouse Lad 14/1
The favourite is drifting right now. I’d chance him or indeed either of the next two if they drifted too much.
Otherwise no bet.
I couldn’t get my head round the 4:00 at all, so abandoned it.
Can’t disagree with your comments either Tooting. Without the benefit of hindsight (and other data from those in the know :o ) I suspect that the market is overacting to the doubts about Areyoutalkingtome’s ability over this distance. But as you say none of the other runners are clear standouts either. If he continues to drift I’ll put some more on..
I’ve been tracking the lingfield results over 5 furlongs and stall 1 has a poor ratio in proportion to the runner of runners. Agree that Maltese Falcon will get taken for the lead, but prominent style and draw will force him to make the pace by default, hopefully to be shot down in flames by Areyoutalkingtome in the final stretch.
Well see at 3:25
3:25 Lingfield
To be honest, I have very little to add to some excellent analysis here. Areyoutalkingtome is so well suited by this surface and the way races here tend to pan out that he might be able to win, although I suspect that 6f-7f is a much better trip for him.
Of the rivals, both Shields horses should go very well and Classic Encounter makes slightly more appeal than Ajigolo of the remainder, but this is a no bet race for me.
<br>4:00 Lingfield
This race is a bit more interesting, even though there is a relatively small field.
Royal Jet – is probably well capable of competing in these sort of events here, but based on previous form will almost certainly need the run and the Channon yard is quiet at the moment.
Sweet Indulgence – has had an excellent winter thus far, but every chance that this mark of 95 is high enough. Additionally, the Musson yard which was flying before Christmas seems to have just lost its edge (or possibly they have eeked out most of the wins from  half-decent well-handicapped horses)
Melpomene – ran too fast early on last time at Kempton, so ought to go better if settling this time, but is probably held by Eva Soneva So Fast on these terms based on their last meeting.
Crow Wood – lacks enough of a turn of foot to be ideally suited to Lingfield and hasn’t won on the flat since June 2005. Perfectly genuine and whilst he might find winning difficult, is unlikely to be beaten far.
Eva Soneva So Fast – should get a tow and seems happy to settle nowadays. Record here (over 12f-13f) reads 52221, and although up 6lbs would appear to have enough weaponry to take advantage of this opportunity. Big chance.
Orange Touch – seems to be in decline now having followed a moderate turf campaign with a poor Kempton sand run and a tame effort over hurdles. Yard is also not firing on all cylinders at present and looks an unlikely winner.
Recommendation
EVA SONEVA SO FAST – £6 win
EVA SONEVA SO FAST to beat Crow Wood – £2 s/f/c
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(Edited by non vintage at 2:57 pm on Feb. 3, 2007)
Southwell 3.30 – Pontin’s Holidays Handicap Stakes
Party Boss verses Waterside = no bet for me.. <br>
Southwell 3.30
Waterside -v- Party Boss with the unknown quantity of a freshly-gelded Chief Commander. Definite no bet race!
Anybody out there that can give me any advice on how to get an in running bet on, on betfair (flat racing). I find it virtually impossible. The only thing I can think of why I can never get on is that there is numerous people out there with multiple laptops who narrow a race down to a certain amount of runners, have their horses picked, stake at the ready, spot one of them travelling well and in one stroke of the finger bet struck. As for me it takes me an eternity with my single laptop. Is this what is happening ?? or has anybody got some better advice on how to get on.
Sorry sir, no can help on the in-running query. Need to sort that game out myself.
Chief Commander in the 3.30 for me, lads at a sporting price. Goes well fresh and judging by the snow down there, I wouldn’t be taking short prices about anything, (except the Johnston horse).
Best bet looks to be Rod Millman’s Peppins Gold in a dreadful seller at 3.00. Runner up to Copper King at Warwick on heavy ground and that one would be tens on in this contest.
Best of luck. Max
Southwell’s apparent match is quite an interesting one.
The last time Waterside and Wessex ran against each other a few people on this thread (me included) sided with Wessex only for him to run like pooh.
He has a noteworthy turnaround in the weights here if anyone is inclined to forgive that run. I think I’ll throw a couple of points his way, in case my original thinking had some credibility.
To madman: one man and his laptop are up against it when it comes to in-running betting. You are up against at the very least:
People with access to pictures ahead of you,<br>and<br>People using software to put their bets on quicker than you and your fingers.
Some people seem to do Ok regardless, but they usually have pre-determined plans built around the running styles of various horses/jockeys.
Saturday meetings televised on terrestrial TV can provide a leveller playing field. Playing at any other time, without a really solid strategy, I’d suggest you’re likely to get eaten alive by sharks. Good luck!<br>
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