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Southwell 2030
eloped is all the rage here.
Understandable after a three length win latest at Wolverhampton.
But, TWO horses here have beaten him and by some way too.paradise row is the bottom weight here and potentially has the least to do. The draw data horse however is the top weight ridden by Haley Turner and full preference is for that runner and an each way on her is the way with that horse in receipt of both free energy and traverse law of physics throws things the top weights way too.
recommendation
TURNER GIRL
Each way
Turner girl
Elopedparadise row
combination forecast
Turner girl found one too good and for the third time at least this week, a handicap debut making class dropping horse won the race on the all weather.
Haydock 2pmWestern stars
Win
Western stars a front runner over further drops markedly in trip in a race where a tipster of “ influence” has put up a top weight who has shown plenty on soft ground form recently.
Worry not, I’m not a tipster of any influence.
My choice is for western stars due to form and class dropping and the drop in trip. He has gone to the front a long way out several times and has looked a real stayer. But his only win has been over a mile so the fact he has always hit the front a furlong or two out could be significant. The debut run behind post impressionist is the standout form and the winner has gone on to be listed class, also finishing eighth behind Absurde in the Ebor.
Bought out of Ed Dunlop’s after a good second over further in a class three seller. Lots to like about this horse especially the price.
Draw data also puts him in the driving seat in stall 6 as the highest drawn runner has dominated in these small field contests in recent years.
I like to look at where horses start off as two year olds as the yard often take them down in class on purpose early on, but there is no hiding their potential in snatches and you need only chart where the horses they faced have gone when tying to gauge a horse’s potential and true ceiling. Better still look at the horses finishing behind and see where they have ended up to get a minimum mark.Nice when they win like that.
Newmarket 2:25
Veil of Shadows
Each way
Seeet memories
WinCharlie Appleby runner in with a draw data shout here
Newcastle 1900
socialise
each way
the draw data horse here
first time head gear and the free energy horse weighted directly under the penalised top weight who won lto and while hard to beat as top weight vulnerable under the penalty.
unknowho
Each way
Good morning Alex
each way
class dropper and “traverse law “runner
Hollie Doyle may be the key to the final race at Newcastle she was on board both selections on their most recent runs.
Newcastle 2030
the girl from Italy
win
was sent to the front very early and did not see out the trip behind cussack, who took over and ran out a clear winner on last run. Could quite conceivably improve if held up later this time.
pop favourite is the draw data runner here and it would be just my luck today if this course winner won here. But was well held by the girl from Italy last time.
Real Quiz
each way
drops markedly in trip here on debut for new yard. 16 plus lengths behind the winner in the same grade on handicap debut. A long way off the pace when last seen. As such may be under rated on what is effectively this runner’s “real” handicap debut. Sire’s last winner was over middle distances… yard without a win in the last month.
If nothing else that bears testimony to the unique strength of draw data.
Pop favourite benefitted from being on better terms with the girl from Italy on their previous meeting. The girl from Italy had been sent forward to win her race that night and got caught by Cussack. Put up two pounds the girl from Italy couldn’t cope with the rise while pop favourite was lowered a pound. Horses and jockeys get chances at the weights and the weights subsequently change, the chances may be lost until the weight falls again. Failing to trust your own knowledge and systems can be costly. Pop favourite was well treated and below previous winning marks.Ayr 1522
Abduction
win
Rock melody
win
impossible to second guess this yard. Lasts years winner won this from stall 10 and again has the outside draw. After two anomalies in the five year draw data the adjusted stall taking that into account is stall 7. There are only seven runners and Paul mulhrenan jumps across to ride Rock melody in stall 1. the traverse stall here to Abduction. Goldies runners have faced stiff opposition here and this is going to be tough. In form Richard Fahey has to be feared.
Ayr 1557
draw data
Burning the bails
win
Kracken power
each way
Goes over seven for yard for first time.
not disgraced for Ian Jardine in a group race over this trip at goodwood.
last win under this jockey, who he doesn’t seem to like! the rider put up five pounds overweight.
Wolverhampton 2000
Revisit
each way
has a decent chance on debut for new yard.
missed first engagement and turns out now
kicked off career with a win and ended up rated 75. Had to fight to get mark down and arrives on lowest mark.
The horse revisit beat went up in grade and currently runs off higher than revisits opening mark and raced recently in a higher grade. Every chance if ready
No joy
the draw data horse averaging at 6.333
six strings
each way
El royale
win
yard flying now, but at a higher level and these bread and butter assaults tailed off latterly.
A brutal race last night around which the penalty and non runners were quite decisive. You could go back over that race dig up the Racecard with the penalty taken into consideration and the non runners then you’d possibly understand the impact on the draw and the weights that penalties and non runners can have on the outcome.
Sadly Chinese whispers broke down and en Royale suffered a slipped saddle all coincidence? Maybe, maybe not. Patterns emerge when non runners and penalty carrying horses are involved. Full stop.Navan 1:55
SOUTHBANK
win best prices available
OUR DAGGER
each way 150/1 or better
A free energy bet revolving initially around the draw data of the race and then with the desertion of Bruce lightning the expectant free energy generated via the draw to both southbank and our dagger. For our dagger to feature would take the draw data and free energy combined to push him forward as he was out the back on debut and also suffered the ignominy of being found to be a gelding and not the entire he’d been declared as. Wether that was by chip or closer inspection is none too clear but it had the appropriate effect and he tailed in out the back.I have to point out a selection error Navan 1355
more profit
each way
should be the both the draw data selection and free energy selection as he is drawn in stall 9.
our dagger is actually drawn in stall 1 as stall 1 is traditionally the box seat draw anywhere in the world for obvious reasons, he remains a selection despite the error.
Our dagger meets the favourite in stall 13 on the traverse as well and while the favourite comes out of a deep race she meets lots of rivals.
Gavin Cromwell’s runner more profit has shown up well on both of his two runs particularly the debut when tracking leaders before falling away and following an automatic withdrawal when a reserve has reached a creditable fifth place in a 19 runner field. Seen money today and both previous runs.one more selection for this race.
this isn’t the grand national and you’ll rarely find me backing more than three in any other race this year but today’s opener is different this is a one pound win bet.
Since last week, when some complete numbnuts cut down the beautiful tree at sycamore lodge by Hadrian’s wall I’ve been looking for an appropriately named horse
and PHOTOSYNTHESIS
fits the bill
Navan 1655
Buzzen
Any city
carrickfin
all each way
the draw data horse here is Buzzen who last won in England off 84 a long time ago.
Bangor 1705
Act Of Authority
win
olly Murphys runner has very classy credentials having run second to Florida dreams in a bumper prior to that one winning graded bumper at Liverpool.
This doesn’t guarantee a maiden hurdle win but the credentials are strong..
Authoritive win by Act of Authority by 14 lengths.
Thurles 1720
The model kingdom
Win
11/10
The model kingdom to win by 2 plus lengths @ 9/4.
Already a winner over the trip in different codes multiple times.
Not seen since April but won after a break before.
Badly unsettled in stalls by horse anticipating the start and breaking the gate as knock on effect the model kingdom (drawn at opposite ends but alongside effectively in the traverse)reared up at the start and lost ten lengths.
Made up ground to be five lengths down in second place that equates to potentially a comfortable win with an even break and pace. Very overpriced here.
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