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Sad for west approach backers but this is great news for me as backed death duty.
that’s the biggest danger out of the race if he goes for the stayers.
when was the last time west approach won a race?? (hes raced against a good few of these also)
I would be concerned about any horse who can’t win in novice company and then seemingly shows big improvement in open Grade. Don’t think he would have won this and don’t think he will come close to winning the stayers. Owners getting carried away after hitting on a woeful King George.
Not a chance this horse will win. Sentiment decision by the owners rather than common sense
I havent backed for either race but personally would think it would be a good decision. The horses in the Stayers aside from jezki are all exposed at this trip and jezki himself has questions to answer. if he gets a similar ride to which runs by gave him last time he’d have a chance of a place.
The AB is full of unexposed horses who could turn out to be that much better than the current Stayers crop. he’s already been beaten 3 times by wholestone who’s a solid benchmark, but I’m pretty sure we will find out that a couple of the Irish horses are different gravey.
Not had a bet in this race yet I still can’t make my mind up if Death duty is a banker or not. The way Gordon Elliot has been so bullish about him you have to sit up and take notice. I’m little bit wary of favourites in this race tho there have been a few really good looking ones turned over but I spose if they are good enough they win.
I’m thinking of going with The worlds end he seems to have improved every race so far. Whenever anything has tried to engage in a battle with him he’s just found more and galloped to the line. I agree with hayper’s post a few days ago his run beating No Hasslehoff Last time out was impressive. I think he could be a solid e/w bet against the favourite.
Suddenly west approach is now back in to 7.8 on exchanges for this and 24 for the stayers?!? What is going on?!?
Seriously what chance to punters have ?I still think West Approach has the beating of Wholestone over 3 miles off level weights. Only beaten 1/2 length when giving 3ib and lacking race fitness over course and distance in October lest we forget. The worry is that connections would rather have a crack at the Stayers.
Stop panicking about that Charles…West approach will definitely stay the novice route this year.
Oh dear Charles, TAPK seems to have put you away.
Either that or our ante-post Doctor has got in his tardis,gone back and taken the prices that were once available.In the Stayers I have £10 on West Approach at 80’s and £50 on at 50’s,£50 e/w on Shaneshill at 16/1 and a fiver on More of that at 200’s
Total £165
Value Is EverythingThis race can be brutal, so I just hope this year’s crop emerge from it happy and sound. By my reckoning, there are almost 10 horses in this field who have already run mid 150s or strongly suggested that they’ll do it in a championship scenario. This year’s field could be the best ever assembled in this race. I’ve got a feeling the 2019-2021 Gold Cup winners are on show here.
All that said, I’ve had an ante-post stinker. I spewed on Blood Crazed Tiger (still a horse to follow btw) and Elegant Escape (not sure what I was thinking) early in the season. Maybe Elegant Escape will still take part and might improve for better ground but I’ve written that off as a loser already.
I’m looking for alternatives to Death Duty. I’ve got nothing against the horse as he is obviously a very genuine stayer with bonafide 150s ability, but as I said, there are others in this field. There’s no value at 2/1. Perhaps he will run high 160s and blow them all away but he’s not the only one with that sort of potential.
Any Drama is one who has run himself into that ballpark, but his running style isn’t going to be ideal here. This is always such a savage test and he’ll feel it more than most going from the front.
This is supposedly the target for Bon Papa, who really could be anything. Apart from the general lack of form to go on, my slight worry is his pedigree. Network generally doesn’t produce the most clean-winded horses and this lot will need all the air they can get into their lungs in a jelly legs finish.
Constantine Bay‘s attitude stands him in good stead, but I thought he was a slightly fortunate winner in the River Don with Harry Skelton shooting his load a bit early on the runner-up. He was giving No Hassle Hoff 7lbs though, so you can’t knock it too much.
All Monalee‘s form is on deep ground, but he’s got good ground on both sides of his pedigree as a son of Milan out of a Glacial Storm mare. With that in mind, I think there’s every chance of him turning the tables on Death Duty. Tin Soldier won’t get his ground.
Wholestone looks like a bulletproof high 150s horse, though his price seems about right at the moment. I wonder if Augusta Kate is quite ready mentally for this sort of test but she’ll obviously be right there in the mix with her sex allowance if able to jump and travel.
My new main bet is The Worlds End 14/1 e/w, who really impressed me with his win at Haydock. I loaded up soon after. He ticks the boxes for stamina, a hold-up style (could be crucial here) and ability. He gave weight and a proper tonking to No Hassle Hoff and looks like a potential 160+ horse. Adrian Heskin is still a work in progress as a jockey so I just hope he doesn’t get one of his rushes of blood to the head and send the horse on turning for home. You can tell I’ve backed a few of his howlers this season! The current 10/1 still seems fair.
On the plus side Gordon Elliot is in great form but the negative is I’m in terrible form and now very worried about my last big bet on the festival, Death Duty, because of the ground.
Not sure this horse will appreciate this quick ground at all. Think Augusta Kate will bounce off the quick ground being by a Royal Ascot horse in Yeats, sticking with Death Duty obviously as don’t really have a choice but now looks ominous for me
Wholestone drifting probably thanks to West Approach not featuring in the Stayers frame. I’d say he would have went fav if West Approach delivered.
The Irish dominated the Supreme, English dominated the Neptune; not sure why the market thinks the Irish will dominate Albert Bartlet with Death Duty, Augusta Kate and Monalee first 3 in the betting. The Willoughby Court form in the Neptune should be a boost for Wholestone. Pity Bacardys got hampered; would have been interesting to see if he could have got near Neon Wolf or Willoughby Court.
Still looking forward to this race..
I like Wholestone but his trainer’s handling of The New One (and, yes, I know how much he’s won but he’d have won an awful lot more campaigned as the natural stayer that he is) puts me off backing anything from the yard.
Ami Desbois seems excellent value for a tough and consistent front-runner who seems to be peaking at just the right time. Softer ground would have helped, but he’s won on good and if his jock gets the fractions right he could take some passing. His only outing here was at this trip when he ran Wholestone to a length at levels. At four times Wholestone’s price he makes much more appeal.
I’m happy to oppose Death here with Augusta Kate 7/1 (could of won last time), Wholestone 15/2 (course form) & Penhill 16/1 (form looks solid).
I went for The Worlds End at 14’s Ante-Post, and although happy with what I’ve seen of him, I’ll have a small top up on Monalee at around 7’s, as he’s always impressed me, and despite trainer saying he wouldbe trying to avoid Death Duty, he’s still up against him. I’ve taken both of these win only.
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