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I think that all todays race has proved is we have been going through a spell of bad Champion hurdle races
Not sure where this thinking comes from
Straw Bear RPR 166
Harchibald RPR 166
Osana RPR 166and now Sizing Europe (probably a RPR of 165 – 170 ) have all put in performances that would see them going close in most of the recent Champion Hurdles
Add in last years winner and third into the mix and you have a well up to stratch Champion Hurdle
Nowt for Katchit in that field imo
Charlie mate I never even looked at his rating doesn’t interest me in the slightest.
I watched the horse over and over gain and everything I saw told me this is a better horse than anything else I have seen in along time. I never even bothered what he was beating he just looked like a right horse to me.
I have very little time for horses like Hardy Eustace and that Grey thing that won and finished second to him….I look for the Istabraqs and Sea Pigeon and when I see one that’s the type of horse I want to see be Champion Hurdler.
As I said Earlier who looked today like he could have beaten HE of old never mind new……….horse travels well and has got bundles of toe and obviously a bit of class a he proved today.
To be honest I am more excited about Binocular as a horse as I am about Sizing Europe given time I still say he looks like the type of horse who could be real top class……Both could of course get stuffed but I would rather use my eyes that any ratings……..I basically thought the last 4 champion hurdles were very poor……….the best horses in the race not running up to form Rhinestone Cowboy Fav was laughable..as I just said Harchibald was the only horse I liked to be honest.
Well, for every Khyber Kim, luckily there’s a Sizing Europe just round the corner.
A serious horse indeed. He might even give Sublimity something to think about at Cheltenham.
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I would rather use my eyes that any ratings..
I think you may find that ratings are a conversion of the ratings compilers eyes, just like tissue prices are a conversion of probability
Yep and at a guess they get it wrong about 80% of the time cos they don’t allow and cant allow for other factors. Lazy man’s way of trying to findwinners in my book
I didn’t have any money on SE, low on punting funds, but I was surprised that he was 7/2 on the off – bloke from Boylesports talking on ATR said they could not give him away. (maybe bookie hyperbole somewhat…)
Considering that he pulled a bit and was pretty fresh, he did well to canter to victory.
However (always one however…
)…what DID he beat?Hardy E is a lovely beast, but patently not as good as he was (though a useful yardstick)..and Al Eile is no Champion contender imo.
Sublimity is still a danger as he has been there and done it.
I backed Osana in the Boylesprts and have a soft spot for him.
Question is: "Can Osanna get Sizing Europe and Sublimity off the bridle and keep them at bay up the hill..?"
Zip
Yep and at a guess they get it wrong about 80% of the time cos they don’t allow and cant allow for other factors. Lazy man’s way of trying to findwinners in my book
Ratings and allowing for other factors didn’t help me in the AIG FoF( my selection finished 2nd) but i do know that your statement above is total carp
I didn’t have any money on SE, low on punting funds, but I was surprised that he was 7/2 on the off – bloke from Boylesports talking on ATR said they could not give him away. (maybe bookie hyperbole somewhat…)
Considering that he pulled a bit and was pretty fresh, he did well to canter to victory.
However (always one however…
)…what DID he beat?Hardy E is a lovely beast, but patently not as good as he was (though a useful yardstick)..and Al Eile is no Champion contender imo.
Sublimity is still a danger as he has been there and done it.
I backed Osana in the Boylesprts and have a soft spot for him.
Question is: "Can Osanna get Sizing Europe and Sublimity off the bridle and keep them at bay up the hill..?"
Zip
Sizing Europe didn’t just beat Hardy and Al Eile today he treated them with utter contempt. It wasd about as easy a Grade 1 success as you can get.
The second and third look to have run pretty much upto their form the horses behind did as you’d roughly expect – the form looks solid.
Sizing Europe has run to around 168 today that is some five pounds higher than I have any other two mile hurdlers this season and he did it with lengths in hand.
Harchibald is Harchibald he’s previously run to a higher level than he has this season he’s possibly still capable. Sublimity on last years evidence is the other horse capable of being thereabouts unless Osana can find half a stone improvement.
The rest have no chance whatsoever> Straw Bear isn’t and never has been good enough and Katchit – I respect Fist Of Fury’s opinions greatly but he’s got it wrong with Katchit, he’ll be a long way behind the winner.
Ratings are a very helpful guide but they aren’t the be all and end all. I work a lot by ratings but you don’t just back a horse because it has the highest rating I sometimes think thats what people who use ratings do.
Ratings are a guide, a base upon which to work, that is all.
Visually impressive, but not as impressive as some appear to be suggesting. It can be summarised as "Young, progressive 6yo beats 11yo who’s better days are behind him, and 8yo who is thoroughly exposed as needing 20f"
There’s no doubting that this was a decent effort from Sizing Europe, and he is definitely on the short-list for Cheltenham. but making him 2/1 jolly for the Champion is taking the performance far too literally, and the bookies are having it away with anyone who backs him at the price – he’ll start bigger on the day for sure.
Right now, I’d say he has about the same chance as Osana and Sublimity, and they should be betting 4/1 the field.
Visually impressive, but not as impressive as some appear to be suggesting. It can be summarised as "Young, progressive 6yo beats 11yo who’s better days are behind him, and 8yo who is thoroughly exposed as needing 20f"
There’s no doubting that this was a decent effort from Sizing Europe, and he is definitely on the short-list for Cheltenham. but making him 2/1 jolly for the Champion is taking the performance far too literally, and the bookies are having it away with anyone who backs him at the price – he’ll start bigger on the day for sure.
Right now, I’d say he has about the same chance as Osana and Sublimity, and they should be betting 4/1 the field.
As with most things in racing Grass it depends how you analyze how each horse ran and where you rate those that he beat
Going by OR’s and saying that HE and Al Eile and Ebaziyan ran to or close to thiers (finishing position relative to each other suggests this may be so) then Sizing Europe put in a 170 performance
Visually impressive, but not as impressive as some appear to be suggesting. It can be summarised as "Young, progressive 6yo beats 11yo who’s better days are behind him, and 8yo who is thoroughly exposed as needing 20f"
There’s no doubting that this was a decent effort from Sizing Europe, and he is definitely on the short-list for Cheltenham. but making him 2/1 jolly for the Champion is taking the performance far too literally, and the bookies are having it away with anyone who backs him at the price – he’ll start bigger on the day for sure.
Right now, I’d say he has about the same chance as Osana and Sublimity, and they should be betting 4/1 the field.
As with most things in racing Grass it depends how you analyze how each horse ran and where you rate those that he beat
Going by OR’s and saying that HE and Al Eile and Ebaziyan ran to or close to thiers (finishing position relative to each other suggests this) then Sizing Europe put in a 170 performance
I have him a couple of pounds lower but with a plus.
Question I ask is – Champion hurdle – What is capable of running to 170?
Sizing Europe – Almost certainly
Osana – Would need to improve but progressive, not impossible.
Harchibald – At his very peak a couple of years ago maybe – now, 40 / 60 against.
Sublimity – Rated him 166 for winning last years race an extremely low rating for a Champion hurdle winning performance. Can he improve on that? Possibly but far from likely. Would have to be another poor Champion hurdle in order for him to win it.
The rest – Early 160’s at best.
I can see why the bookies now have Sizing Europe favourite I think they’re about right. He and Osana are possibly still improving also I wouldn’t be surprised to see those two fight out the finish.
Marb, where you are going wrong is where you assume that I would bother myself with addressing you directly.
Let me make it clear. I was not addressing you directly.
I was merely contributing my view of the AIG form, right or wrong, and adding it to the general thread.
As for Sizing Europes rating, I would actually agree withyou that he was worth almost 155 going into today. However, the notion that he as run to anything like 172 is frankly laughable. Try knocking 10lbs off that figure, and you’ll be a lot closer.
Charlie, going by OR’s is one thing, but look beyond those and ask yourself whether any of today’s opposition was capable of running to their marks.
Hardy Eustace? No – on the downgrade now, I would suggest.
Al Eile? No, because his mark is derived over 20f.
Ebizayan? No, because he was over-rated by dint of winning the Supreme, and hasn’t done a lick since to suggest he’s worth that kind of mark.SE was impressive, but there is no way on this earth he ran to within a half-stone of a 170-rating today.
Marb, where you are going wrong is where you assume that I would bother myself with addressing you directly.
Let me make it clear. I was not addressing you directly.
I was merely contributing my view of the AIG form, right or wrong, and adding it to the general thread.
As for Sizing Europes rating, I would actually agree withyou that he was worth almost 155 going into today. However, the notion that he as run to anything like 172 is frankly laughable. Try knocking 10lbs off that figure, and you’ll be a lot closer.
How has he run to 162 (as a matter of interest?).
Good question, Flash.
I’d base my mark on Hardy and Al Eile having run to 154. Hardy I have on the downgrade, and Al Eile I have running more or less his usual race in a G1 over 2m. I lock the mare in on a low-140 rating, and Ebizayan never really having been travelling/put-in.
Maybe I need to put a ‘+’ on Sizing Europe’s figure, as he is still very obviously heading in the right direction.
Now, if I may ask…..how do you get Sizing Europe on 172??
Why would they be any more informed than you, marb?
They presumably don’t have any stable connection, and have viewed the race on TV, just like you and I.
I may not agree with your opinion, but your entitled to hold it, and defend it.
I just happen to think you are wrong.
Good question, Flash.
I’d base my mark on Hardy and Al Eile having run to 154. Hardy I have on the downgrade, and Al Eile I have running more or less his usual race in a G1 over 2m. I lock the mare in on a low-140 rating, and Ebizayan never really having been travelling/put-in.
Maybe I need to put a ‘+’ on Sizing Europe’s figure, as he is still very obviously heading in the right direction.
Now, if I may ask…..how do you get Sizing Europe on 172??
I don’t I have him on 168+.
Before the race I had Hardy Eustace rated 159 on this years 2m form (166 for his 2 1/2 miler at Ascot), Al Eile at 160 based on his runs at Newcastle and when beating Hardy Eustace last time out. He’s a good benchmark usually runs a decent race if conditions are Ok for him.
Ebaziyan I had rated at 156 at his best.
Today Sizing Europe demolished the 160 Al Eile just over eight lengths. I see no reason to say that Al Eile has improved on his 160. Hardy Eustace (159) has finished a fraction in front of him and Ebaziyan has finished 15 lengths behind the winner. He didn’t jump great and his jumping may have cost him a couple of lengths so a rating a couple of pounds below his 156 would seem to be about right which would also tie in with what you’d expect in relation to Hardy and Al Eile.
I don’t think Hardy or Al Eile have ran any worse than they have in previous races this season they’ve just come up against a young horse that is progressive and very good.
Using Al Eile’s 160 as a bench mark :
Sizing Europe 168+
Hardy Eustace 160
Al Eile 160
Ebaziyan 153.Lounaos rather like Sizing Europe is young and open to improvement and in posting a 148 I think Lounaos has improved. Interestingly this horse is top speed rated at 145 which isn’t far off the 148 I’ve given her for todays effort. .
I have the CH between the two now after today,cannot see anything beating Osana or Sizing,Slight preference is for Osana,on the greatwood form and bear in mind David Pipes horses were massively out of form at that time,and at roughly twice the price of Sizing if the race were run tomorrow I’d be playing on Osana.I’m prepared to throw out Sublimity,and it may be folly of me to do this,but if he goes to the CH on the back of his 4th in the Bula-this stat alone puts me off,with most winners in the past 20yrs having won their last run..
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