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Anyone making this particular equation must also take in to account sires. Galileo is THE best sire around and over middle-distances is even more dominent. Galileo being a Coolmore stallion, AOB has far more progeny of the top sire than anyone else. Had the only three horses sired by Galileo in the Arc and at least three others (Minding, Seventh Heaven and US Army Ranger) who were entered and did not run. Take a look at the Dewhurst decs, three of AOB’s six enteries are by Galileo, the only horses by the top sire in the race. AOB/Coolmore also have far more middle-distance bred animals than any other trainer, so will have far more top class/potentially top class middle-distance horses than any other trainer. Next year, look at the first entry stage for the Derrinstown Trial and you’ll see what I mean.
True, but the three horses involved were still relatively unfancied, what was the tricast again?
All had lost their last race. OOSG was running over the distance for the first time, it was the equivalent of a 2 mile chaser running the Gold Cup distance for the first time. Highland Reel was on the go since March. Found was considered the perennial bridesmaid.I don’t really think day of race prices come in to it Sunspangled. The question is this:
Let’s say we are talking years in the future, so not knowing the particular horses AOB has, but knowing that Galileo is by far the best middle distance sire and AOB has a lot more Galileo progeny than any other and AOB has far more top class middle distance bred animals than any other European trainer. And knowing AOB fairly often has the first three home in other Group 1’s.. What odds would you have given AOB achieving a 1-2-3 in the Arc?
Now take Michael Dickenson and take it back years before the 83 Gold Cup. Without knowing the particular horses he had… What odds would you have given Dickenson of a 1-2-3-4-5 in the Gold Cup? He was known to be a top trainer and had 12 individual winners on Boxing Day of 1982 (took over from his mum in 1980) but there were other top trainers around. He was also no more or less likely to get top class staying bred horses through his hands than any other trainer. Although there’s a case to suggest top class flat racing is more competitive than top class jump racing… In the Arc – with very few exceptions – a first three contender needs to be middle-distance bred and they’ve pretty much got to be very well bred too. Therefore, when starting their careers only a small minority of flat horses have any real chance of a first three Arc place. There may be only X number of runners on the day of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but although there are some clues to be had with breeding, it doesn’t have anywhere near the same affect. At the beginning of their careers most jumpers have pretensions of being Gold Cup first five contenders.
Value Is EverythingThe best Galileos that Coolmore are breeding now are 8-10f horses, they are sending fast mares to him. You can see it reflected in their Derby horses, or lack of, for the past couple of years. Australia, Gleneagles and Churchill were/are not Arc horses. Even Found was the Guineas favourite and was a close 2nd in two G1 races over a mile, she wasn’t necessarily bred for the Arc trip either. And at the other extreme, Order of St George couldn’t be considered an Arc type.
Also, Galileo has had 11 crops of 3 yos and previous to this year he has had at least 20 runners in the Arc, more than any other stallion, but only two third places to show for it. Contrast that with Cape Cross who has has two winners since 2009 with much fewer runners. You could say that Galileo has a poor record in the Arc, so you could also say that it was an extra special achievement to get 3 Galileos across the line in a 1-2-3
It’s an extraordinary achievement whichever way you argue it. The arc is a far stronger race than the gold cup and for aiden to achieve it with the pari muteul odds of 10/15/25 to 1 is awesome. Even more amazing is that they ran to 124 by time form and that with the horses having run many races and all being beaten last time out. To get all three to run to that level in one of the toughest races in the world to win is quite remarkable as David Coleman would have said. He is an amazing intense guy and a more driven individual you will not meet.
Just because the three horses were 10, 15 and 25, doesn’t mean those prices realistically expressed their true chance. Which is why I backed all three. Being beaten last time also means little.
Found actually put up a better performance in the Irish Champion than any of her previous wins and comes to her best form this time of year.
Order Of St George was dropped out the back in a slowly run race where the winner made all and kicked for home. Probably didn’t need to run to his very best for third. Probably would’ve done better had underfoot conditions tested stamina further.
Highland Reel had been below form in the Irish Champion, but had been ridden closer to the pace than principals that day. Had previously run the Arc short priced favourite Postponed close in the International over a trip that’s a bear minimum and time before that won the King George comfortably.It is an absolutely “amazing, extraordinary” performance by AOB, it’s just being judged by possibly THE best training performance and as I said earlier – may be we shouldn’t have started it? No doubt any exceptional horse performance in future will be unfairly judged against Frankel – which will be a shame.
Value Is EverythingThe best Galileos that Coolmore are breeding now are 8-10f horses, they are sending fast mares to him. You can see it reflected in their Derby horses, or lack of, for the past couple of years. Australia, Gleneagles and Churchill were/are not Arc horses. Even Found was the Guineas favourite and was a close 2nd in two G1 races over a mile, she wasn’t necessarily bred for the Arc trip either. And at the other extreme, Order of St George couldn’t be considered an Arc type.
Also, Galileo has had 11 crops of 3 yos and previous to this year he has had at least 20 runners in the Arc, more than any other stallion, but only two third places to show for it. Contrast that with Cape Cross who has has two winners since 2009 with much fewer runners. You could say that Galileo has a poor record in the Arc, so you could also say that it was an extra special achievement to get 3 Galileos across the line in a 1-2-3
How can Australia be described as not an Arc horse?
He won the Derby and out of an Oaks winner?
When Galileo is put to an 8 to 10 furlong mare they’re trying to win a Derby or Arc; if settling well I’d expect it to stay 12f. Found is out of an 8f Group 1 winner. Minding’s dam won at up to 8f and she’s won both Guineas and Oaks. Highland Reel’s dam is a 1m winner and is a half sister to Queen Anne winner Haradersun. If they put a mare that needed 12f to Galileo there’s a fairly high risk of turning out a stayer. Order Of St George is a half brother (by Sehoy) to a 12f winner and dam although won at 8 1/2 furlongs, that was as a two year old. Temperament comes in to it, Gleneagles didn’t settle quite as well as most Galileo’s, was out of a 6f two year old winner who did stay 10f and was a half-sister to Giants Causeway who if I remember was not tried at 12f. Churchill is out of a two year old 5f winner and related to top class sprinter Airwave; so I’d expect him to be a miler too, 10f at most.Cape Cross progeny may have had a better record in the Arc, but given Galileo’s record in other races it was probably a coincidence. Which was born out by this year’s result.
Value Is EverythingAnd wouldn’t the Arc be the toughest of all Group !s, in Europe, at least?
Sometimes. I think this year you could make a fair argument that it wasn’t tougher than the Irish Champion.
As for the under performances in the 1983 Gold Cup you could name just as many, if not more in the Arc. You might want to add in the no shows of the likes of La Cressonniere and Almanzor for good measure.
How many trainers have ever had five runners in a Gold Cup? Compare that with the number of times Aidan has been lucky enough to go in mob-handed to numerous Group 1 races.
It’s an extraordinary achievement whichever way you argue it. The arc is a far stronger race than the gold cup and for aiden to achieve it with the pari muteul odds of 10/15/25 to 1 is awesome. Even more amazing is that they ran to 124 by time form and that with the horses having run many races and all being beaten last time out. To get all three to run to that level in one of the toughest races in the world to win is quite remarkable as David Coleman would have said. He is an amazing intense guy and a more driven individual you will not meet.
Don’t want to decry the achievement but i’m going to decry the achievement….
Not a phrase I like, but no one seems to have mentioned the elephant in the room, that it was one of the poorest Arcs in recent years.
Not sure what relevance there is to being a poor arc. Before the race postponed looked a top horse and found had finished second in the strongest Irish champion for decades. To decry the race is pointless as each trainer has the same chance whether it’s a dancing brave or a solemnia or found and I’m sure in time we will come to appreciate what an amazing feat it was.
The best Galileos that Coolmore are breeding now are 8-10f horses, they are sending fast mares to him. You can see it reflected in their Derby horses, or lack of, for the past couple of years. Australia, Gleneagles and Churchill were/are not Arc horses. Even Found was the Guineas favourite and was a close 2nd in two G1 races over a mile, she wasn’t necessarily bred for the Arc trip either. And at the other extreme, Order of St George couldn’t be considered an Arc type.
Also, Galileo has had 11 crops of 3 yos and previous to this year he has had at least 20 runners in the Arc, more than any other stallion, but only two third places to show for it. Contrast that with Cape Cross who has has two winners since 2009 with much fewer runners. You could say that Galileo has a poor record in the Arc, so you could also say that it was an extra special achievement to get 3 Galileos across the line in a 1-2-3How can Australia be described as not an Arc horse?
He won the Derby and out of an Oaks winner?
When Galileo is put to an 8 to 10 furlong mare they’re trying to win a Derby or Arc; if settling well I’d expect it to stay 12f. Found is out of an 8f Group 1 winner. Minding’s dam won at up to 8f and she’s won both Guineas and Oaks. Highland Reel’s dam is a 1m winner and is a half sister to Queen Anne winner Haradersun. If they put a mare that needed 12f to Galileo there’s a fairly high risk of turning out a stayer. Order Of St George is a half brother (by Sehoy) to a 12f winner and dam although won at 8 1/2 furlongs, that was as a two year old. Temperament comes in to it, Gleneagles didn’t settle quite as well as most Galileo’s, was out of a 6f two year old winner who did stay 10f and was a half-sister to Giants Causeway who if I remember was not tried at 12f. Churchill is out of a two year old 5f winner and related to top class sprinter Airwave; so I’d expect him to be a miler too, 10f at most.Cape Cross progeny may have had a better record in the Arc, but given Galileo’s record in other races it was probably a coincidence. Which was born out by this year’s result.
Australia was a 10f horse, he nearly won a Guineas, he got away with the 12f in the Derby, he was never even considered for the Arc. His last race was to be the QEII.
Gleneagles didn’t even get 10f. Order of St George’s best distance before the Arc was a full mile further than the Arc.
All three put in their best performance of the year, on the same day, in the most prestigious race of the year, was that a coincidence too?Please note, I’ve never said that it was the best training achievement ever, any more than Michael Dickenson’s was. I think Michael Dickenson had a 1-2 in a Gold Cup field of 22 another time, that could be considered a greater achievement than the first 5. There is no way to compare training achievements between two Arcs or between two Gold Cups from one year to the next, let alone two races over 30 years apart and over different codes. So I don’t think there ever has been or ever will be a best training achievement ever.
ods and getting the best out of them can’t be easy. Reading the Tony McCoy autobiography, you get the impression that O’Brien got a good education from the perfectionist Jim Bolger. Aiden though you feel, could have been successful in any activity he put his mind to.
He gives off the vibe of being very single-minded and very driven. He’s obsessed with racing, I doubt he thinks about much else, apart from his family, and he
Bolger was said to have been prepapred to do anything short of marrying O’Brien , in order to keep him in his team.Bolger is not the type to run his mouth off with high praise
A lot of good guys went through Bolger, whether jockeys or trainers. Wachman and Eddie Lynam also spent time with him. Jockies like Paul Carberry and Seamie Hefferenan too. I understand that Willie Mullins spent a short period with Bolger too, though not sure what he learned from the experience.
Not sure what relevance there is to being a poor arc. Before the race postponed looked a top horse and found had finished second in the strongest Irish champion for decades. To decry the race is pointless as each trainer has the same chance whether it’s a dancing brave or a solemnia or found and I’m sure in time we will come to appreciate what an amazing feat it was.
Of course the standard of the race matters. O’Brien could have run the likes of Minding, US Army Ranger, Idaho and Seventh Heaven. All would have started at shorter than 33/1. He has ammunition that is in a different league to everyone else. Obviously, the poorer the opposition the better his chances of creating a bit of history.
It’s an extraordinary achievement whichever way you argue it. The arc is a far stronger race than the gold cup and for aiden to achieve it with the pari muteul odds of 10/15/25 to 1 is awesome. Even more amazing is that they ran to 124 by time form and that with the horses having run many races and all being beaten last time out. To get all three to run to that level in one of the toughest races in the world to win is quite remarkable as David Coleman would have said. He is an amazing intense guy and a more driven individual you will not meet.
Don’t want to decry the achievement but i’m going to decry the achievement….
Not a phrase I like, but no one seems to have mentioned the elephant in the room, that it was one of the poorest Arcs in recent years.
I think the problem with that sort of thing is that you are all too easily labelled a killjoy rather than a realist. These days the Racing Media are not much more than a bunch of cheerleaders. Sad to say but I was more excited watching Librisa Breeze win an Ascot handicap than Found winning her Arc. She might well improve at this time of the year but she has just been beaten too many times to go overboard about.
I have asked Ginge for a few Timeform ratings on his own thread to see where they had placed Found in relation to Danedream and Treve. Obviously, I looked at the Racing Post ratings and it seemed they had raised Found considerably for her Arc win. It looks a rise of convenience to me as I thought she put up a better performance in the Irish Champion.
Stilvi, Timeform assessed that Arc win at a ‘best-ever’ (for Found) 129, the same rating they gave Treve for her 2nd Arc. Here are the articles
Australia was a 10f horse, he nearly won a Guineas, he got away with the 12f in the Derby, he was never even considered for the Arc. His last race was to be the QEII.
Gleneagles didn’t even get 10f. Order of St George’s best distance before the Arc was a full mile further than the Arc.
All three put in their best performance of the year, on the same day, in the most prestigious race of the year, was that a coincidence too?Team Coolmore always go on about how much speed every horse they own has, I remember Brian Boru and High Chapperal being entered in the Lockinge! Not that they took part. Listen, he shows so much speed. Australia was third in the 2000 Guineas at 1m, but improved when winning the Derby at 1m4f and proved equally effective over 1m2f+ at York. Was the improvement from May to June due to mere progression or trip or both? It is possible (only “possible”) Australia would have been fully effective had he come back to a mile in the QEII. However, in March of their two year old year a future Derby winner will not at that point “stay” 1m4f. Until fully grown or almost fully grown, the later it is in a horse’s life the longer the trip needed to bring their stamina in to play. In May of their three year old career middle-distance bred horses are often able to run well at a mile (Guineas) and yet need further than a mile by October the same year (QEII). I think it’s very doubtful Australia would’ve been equally effective at a mile in October and – despite what team Coolmore may have said – suspect he’d have ended up in the Champion had ground been favourable. Decision of QEII or Champion had yet to be made prior to his withdrawl from both races due to soft ground. Australia’s action was that of a top-of-the-ground performer and never ran on anything softer than good.
Gleneagles was not typical of Galileo progeny. As I said earlier, he didn’t settle quite as well as most Galileo’s and temperament alters stamina requirements. Gleneagles was out of a dam who although stayed 10f was a 6f winning two year old – had a lot of speed. Dam was also a half-sister to Giants Causeway who if I remember rightly was never tried at 12f.
At the moment, Order Of St George’s “best distance” remains over further. However, the fact he did so well with underfoot conditions that tested speed at the trip – suggests strongly to me he’ll be as effective at a mile and a half given softer conditions in a truly run race.
I think I covered why the three ran so well here (not a “coincidence” at all):
Just because the three horses were 10, 15 and 25, doesn’t mean those prices realistically expressed their true chance. Which is why I backed all three. Being beaten last time also means little.
Found actually put up a better performance in the Irish Champion than any of her previous wins and comes to her best form this time of year.
Order Of St George was dropped out the back in a slowly run race where the winner made all and kicked for home. Probably didn’t need to run to his very best for third. Probably would’ve done better had underfoot conditions tested stamina further.
Highland Reel had been below form in the Irish Champion, but had been ridden closer to the pace than principals that day. Had previously run the Arc short priced favourite Postponed close in the International over a trip that’s a bear minimum and time before that won the King George comfortably.It is an absolutely “amazing, extraordinary” performance by AOB, it’s just being judged by possibly THE best training performance and as I said earlier – may be we shouldn’t have started it? No doubt any exceptional horse performance in future will be unfairly judged against Frankel – which will be a shame.
Think I’ll leave it at that Sunspangled, because explaining why I believe O’Brien’s performance was not as brilliant as Dickenson’s risks devaluing how brilliant it actually was.
Value Is Everything
He won the Derby and out of an Oaks winner?
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