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Stilvi, Timeform assessed that Arc win at a ‘best-ever’ (for Found) 129, the same rating they gave Treve for her 2nd Arc. Here are the articles
Thanks, it looks as if Ginger is keeping the figures to himself.
I am not a figures person but if I am reading it correctly the Racing Post had Found on 124, Treve 131 and off the top of my head Danedream was 128. Personally, I don’t think those ratings flatter Treve or Danedream. Are Timeform saying they think Found is 5lb’s better than the Racing Post?
I’ve replied to your questions in my thread Stilvi, but do Timeform and Racing Post work to the same scale?
If most runners are slightly more in Timeform it would seem so.
Is one celsius to the other’s farenheit?Value Is EverythingRatings are all about opinions and rating found in particular is difficult. As Matt Chapman said the tougher the race the better she does and she is better imho than 124. Her run in the Irish champion was surely higher than 124 but it seems time form raise and lower their ratings to suit what they think is right. There seems no reason to decry the race as postponed,who before the race was a champion but now isn’t in hindsight so good. Mmmm. Btw watch the race again and see the tremendous turn of foot to leave postponed in her wake. I think she could run to a higher mark if kept in training and if she gets a truly run race but the rumour is she is retiring after the breeders cup. I hope not. Just as a wee aside how good is seventh heaven. We shall see next week.
Also, Galileo has had 11 crops of 3 yos and previous to this year he has had at least 20 runners in the Arc, more than any other stallion, but only two third places to show for it. Contrast that with Cape Cross who has has two winners since 2009 with much fewer runners. You could say that Galileo has a poor record in the Arc, so you could also say that it was an extra special achievement to get 3 Galileos across the line in a 1-2-3
I once did a similar thing with the Derby, and since Galileo’s first crop of 3yos, he has had a runner, or runners in the race every year, and in one year when he sired the winner, he had 5 of the 12 runners, and New Approach had 2 others. Purely on % winners to runners, he gives you the 15th best chance of having a placed horse, at 29%, and the 6th best chance of having the winner (10%). He has had 31 runners in that time period, Montjeu 20, Sadler’s Wells 10, and nothing else more than 4. You can call modern stallions what you like, but horses such as Mill Reef typically covered ~40 mares a year (and in his case died young), so their achievements cannot be compared.
Also, Galileo has had 11 crops of 3 yos and previous to this year he has had at least 20 runners in the Arc, more than any other stallion, but only two third places to show for it. Contrast that with Cape Cross who has has two winners since 2009 with much fewer runners. You could say that Galileo has a poor record in the Arc, so you could also say that it was an extra special achievement to get 3 Galileos across the line in a 1-2-3
I once did a similar thing with the Derby, and since Galileo’s first crop of 3yos, he has had a runner, or runners in the race every year, and in one year when he sired the winner, he had 5 of the 12 runners, and New Approach had 2 others. Purely on % winners to runners, he gives you the 15th best chance of having a placed horse, at 29%, and the 6th best chance of having the winner (10%). He has had 31 runners in that time period, Montjeu 20, Sadler’s Wells 10, and nothing else more than 4. You can call modern stallions what you like, but horses such as Mill Reef typically covered ~40 mares a year (and in his case died young), so their achievements cannot be compared.
The problem with stats like that Louise is the better a sire is at producing Derby runners the more he’s penalised in those statistics. ie Galileo is so good he sired 5 of the 12 Derby runners 1 year… And yet those 5 runners between them can only win a maximum of 1 Derby. Where as a lesser sire might each year have only 1 runner good enough to even run in the Derby and therefore in 5 years they have between them a chance of winning 5 Derbys with those 5 runners.
I believe the race you are talking about is Ruler Of The World. Galileo produced the 1st, 3rd and 4th that year. That’s bloody good to my way of thinking and doubt many could match achievements like that.
Of course it’s made easier by stallions having massive numbers of mares to cover. However, although Coolmore are probably the worst offender – these days the best stallions cover more mares.
Value Is Everything
If most runners are slightly more in Timeform it would seem so.
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