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Fist/Hurdy
get yo Ass back on here before The Hennessey! I’m convinced
Bobs Worth
is a Certainty…….Its that ‘Feltham’ form I keep harping on about!
That one was for you Soldier!
E-mail me at G.wilson1@sky.com
we need to talk!
Well done with Bobs Worth today Gord. I guess it doesn’t matter why you back ’em, as long as you do. The "Feltham" form didn’t mean a thing in this instance, as BW was a long way below form that day. The RSA was key. Anyway, he’ll be a tough nut to crack at Cheltenham. Guess what? I made him a "partial saver" today.
First Lieutenent did us proud, some mighty leaps out in front. Wonder whether he just went a bit too fast early on. Did By far the best of those racing prominently from the off. Although that might be something to do with first 4 home having the best chances.
Tidal Bay ran well too.
Can’t quite see the 11 year old (will be 12) winning the Blue Riband. However, Nicholl’s has done a great job, reformed character these days (the horse, not Paul). Never looked remotely like chucking it in, possibly a life-time best! 
Had it beed Heavy today he might have even won. I got him a bit wrong today. However, had 4 of the first 5 home so not too bad. Not as good as you though, eh Gord! 
Well done Sir!Value Is EverythingFirst Lieutenent did us proud, some mighty leaps out in front. Wonder whether he just went a bit too fast early on.
I thought he nearly jumped too well!
His jumping was so enthusiastic it’s likely he wasted energy in the process. I think he has Ryanair
written all over him, after today’s performance I wonder if connections will consider dropping back to 2m 5f?
First Lieutenent did us proud, some mighty leaps out in front. Wonder whether he just went a bit too fast early on.
I thought he nearly jumped too well!
His jumping was so enthusiastic it’s likely he wasted energy in the process. I think he has Ryanair
written all over him, after today’s performance I wonder if connections will consider dropping back to 2m 5f?
No way THM, imo FL needs at least 3 miles. 3m2f around Cheltenham should suit very well, though saving a tad more for the finish. Doubt if he went optimum fractions (same pace throughout) today. Last two seasons reserved his best for the Festival, so improvement is anticipated. Unfortunately, you could say the same about Bobs Worth.
Value Is EverythingI don’t think he wants three miles at all, on good ground he’s plenty quick enough for 2m 5f. If he made all in the Ryanair it would take some horse to stop him. If he ran in the Ryanair I’d make him favourite whereas I’d have Bobs Worth, Sir Des Champs and Flemenstar ahead of him in the Gold Cup.
I don’t think he wants three miles at all, on good ground he’s plenty quick enough for 2m 5f.
On "good ground" he’ll surely need more speed than he would on soft THM? If the Ryanair was run on soft/heavy then FL might have enough speed for 2m5f. But these days doesn’t (imo) have enough speed for a good ground Ryanair.
Prior to the JN Wine you could say his best was on good ground. But the second place there proves his effectiveness on softer… And with an even truer test of stamina (faster pace) that day may well have beaten Kauto Stone.
Value Is EverythingVery good points you raise there ‘Ginge’ and ‘THM’ regarding
First Lieutenants
Cheltenham target,what I would say is this horse shows he handles softer ground than he likes,today he looked like the winner turning for home and he jumped like a stag for most of the way,the loose horse didn’t help and I’m not convinced making virtually all was going to save any reserves but all things considered ‘my’ horse did me proud particularly as I just couldn’t see him running at the start of the week.On genuine Good ground he will run a place in next years Gold Cup,that is a Guarantee! Now here’s the Million dollar question……..Gigginstown and Michael O’ leary have never won their own race (Ryanair) but on todays evidence ‘First Lieutenant’ would P*ss it,he’d run them ragged dropped back to 2m 5f,just like Tommy says and I always like a horse dropped back in trip it gives you a sense of reassurance knowing they will stay every yard off a fast run pace,obviously me being me has backed him for both races but I believe Mouse will have the last word in the matter and that will be Gold Cup,I hope so too as there’s only about £3k difference in my potential winnings!
Already I’m having flashbacks to the musical chairs scenario of last year with Sir des Champs
and
First Lieutenants
Cheltenham targets being swapped around at the last minute,thank goodness common sense prevailed………..I cant call this one though and it bothers me!
Bobs Worth
confirmed why the RSA is such an excellent guideline to the Hennessey today and proved why he is a serious Gold Cup horse himself,he deserves to be Fav now and its no surprise to me,I never thought ‘my’ Irish horse would have come over for todays race and that only cemented why I thought Nickys horse was a Good thing,I’ve been backing him on the machine since
October but like I keep saying those bets dont appear on here,I thought Barry Geraghty rode a brilliant race……Not so sure Ruby did onTidal Bay
though but at the end of the day I backed one horse to win only and 2 e/w so I’m pleased with the result,however even though I won more on ‘Bobs Worth’ winning I was cheering on
First Lieutenant
as he wore his heart on his sleeve today and proved just what a good horse he is,’Tidal Bay, confirmed that through collateral form.The last word though goes to
Junior
,another one of ‘my’ horses who has a healthy account,unfortunately I never had a penny on!!
Time for another Glass of Bolly,its been a while…………Confidence is still King! On genuine Good ground he will run a place in next years Gold Cup,that is a Guarantee! Now here’s the Million dollar question……..Gigginstown and Michael O’ leary have never won their own race (Ryanair) but on todays evidence ‘First Lieutenant’ would P*ss it,he’d run them ragged dropped back to 2m 5f,just like Tommy says and I always like a horse dropped back in trip it gives you a sense of reassurance knowing they will stay every yard off a fast run pace,
obviously me being me has backed him for both races
but I believe Mouse will have the last word in the matter and that will be Gold Cup,I hope so too as there’s only about £3k difference in my potential winnings!
Already I’m having flashbacks to the musical chairs scenario of last year with Sir des Champs
and
First Lieutenants
Cheltenham targets being swapped around at the last minute,thank goodness common sense prevailed………..I cant call this one though and it bothers me!
Is it a good idea to back one horse to win two races at the festival Gord? Effectively taking a much shorter price than available odds.
There is NO chance he’ll win both races; so to get the true prices taken a punter needs to add the stakes of the two races and divide by profit made.
e.g. I don’t know the prices and stakes you took Gord, but say a punter backed the SAME horse to win both Ryanair and Gold Cup like this:
£5000 @ 14/1 on the Ryanair for potential winnings of £70,000 – £3000 losses of the Gold Cup for an over all profit of
£67,000
(returning £75,000)
£3000 @ 25/1 on the Gold Cup for potential winnings of £75,000 – £5000 losses of the Ryanair for an over all profit of
£70,000
(returning £78,000).
So the prices taken are not 14/1 and 25/1 at all. They’re effectively Ryanair 8.375/1 or Gold Cup 8.75/1.
ie Profit for the Ryanair of £67,000 divided by the over all stake of £8000 means an actual price taken for the Ryanair of 8.375/1 for the horse (not 14/1).
Where as if the horse were to win the Gold Cup instead, it would be £70,000 profit divided by £8000 for an actual price taken of 8.75/1 for the horse (not 25/1)
What’s even more revealing is this is not like being on two individual races at 8.375/1 AND another @ 8.75/1.
It’s effectively ONLY being on ONE horse @ 8.375/1 OR ONLY ONE horse @ 8.75/1, NOT BOTH. Because the two selections won’t both run.Is it wise to take little more than 8/1 about a 14/1 chance or a little less than 9/1 about a 25/1 shot?
If a punter thinks the price to win two different races at the Festival are both individually good value, and not certain where he’ll turn up: It may be best to ring William Hill and ask for a price to win ANY race at the Festival. The price offered is usually one price shorter than their price to win an individual race, ie if a horse were 14/1 for the Ryanair and 25/1 for the Gold Cup they’d probably offer 12/1 to win “any race” at the Festival.
Value Is EverythingYou could of course back both horses at very slightly shorter odds with VC and get NRNB
I’ve backed ‘my’ lol captain Conan that way
Gord any thoughts on the way my ARVIKA won today he had it sewn up halfway he did never in doubt.He be dropped back in trip and train for the arkle.SIMONSIG apart no horse will get to him.
Gord any thoughts on the way my ARVIKA won today he had it sewn up halfway he did never in doubt.He be dropped back in trip and train for the arkle.SIMONSIG apart no horse will get to him.
In my world
Arvika Ligeonieree
should have been fav Darren,I’ve said before this ‘Dedigout’ is nothing special and we have spoken several times in the past about who we thought was a natural replacement for the dissapointing
Mikael d’hageunet
.I’d send him to the Jewson if he was mine though,a fast run Arkle on good ground will catch him out imo.He’s definately one of ‘Yours’ though,well spotted mate!
You could of course back both horses at very slightly shorter odds with VC and get NRNB
I’ve backed ‘my’ lol captain Conan that way
If he hasn’t closed your account for having one bet with them GDC!
"Gingertipster":31eqg87v wrote:
Is it a good idea to back one horse to win two races at the festival Gord?
There is NO chance he’ll win both races; so to get the true prices taken a punter needs to add the stakes of the two races and divide by profit made.
e.g. I don’t know the prices and stakes you took Gord, but say a punter backed the SAME horse to win both Ryanair and Gold Cup like this:£5000 @ 14/1 on the Ryanair for potential winnings of £70,000 – £3000 losses of the Gold Cup for an over all profit of
£67,000
(returning £75,000)
£3000 @ 25/1 on the Gold Cup for potential winnings of £75,000 – £5000 losses of the Ryanair for an over all profit of
£70,000
(returning £78,000).
So the prices taken are not 14/1 and 25/1 at all. They’re effectively Ryanair 8.375/1 or Gold Cup 8.75/1.
ie Profit for the Ryanair of £67,000 divided by the over all stake of £8000 means an actual price taken for the Ryanair of 8.375/1 for the horse (not 14/1). Where as if the horse were to win the Gold Cup instead, it would be £70,000 profit divided by £8000 for an actual price taken of 8.75/1 for the horse (not 25/1)
What’s even more revealing is this is not like being on two individual races at 8.375/1 AND another @ 8.75/1.
It’s effectively ONLY being on ONE horse @ 8.375/1 OR ONLY ONE horse @ 8.75/1, NOT BOTH. Because the two selections won’t both run.
Is it wise to take little more than 8/1 about a 14/1 chance or a little less than 9/1 about a 25/1 shot?
If a punter thinks the price to win two different races at the Festival are both individually good value, and not certain where he’ll turn up: It may be best to ring William Hill and ask for a price to win ANY race at the Festival. The price offered is usually one price shorter than their price to win an individual race, ie if a horse were 14/1 for the Ryanair and 25/1 for the Gold Cup they’d probably offer 12/1 to win “any race” at the Festival.
Have you seen Jezki? Looks a very nice and interesting prospect
Looks very uninteresting to me GDC but you can call him ‘Yours’ if you wish mate!
"The Ante-Post King":20375l6c wrote:
Is it a good idea to back one horse to win two races at the festival Gord?
There is NO chance he’ll win both races; so to get the true prices taken a punter needs to add the stakes of the two races and divide by profit made.
e.g. I don’t know the prices and stakes you took Gord, but say a punter backed the SAME horse to win both Ryanair and Gold Cup like this:£5000 @ 14/1 on the Ryanair for potential winnings of £70,000 – £3000 losses of the Gold Cup for an over all profit of
£67,000
(returning £75,000)
£3000 @ 25/1 on the Gold Cup for potential winnings of £75,000 – £5000 losses of the Ryanair for an over all profit of
£70,000
(returning £78,000).
So the prices taken are not 14/1 and 25/1 at all. They’re effectively Ryanair 8.375/1 or Gold Cup 8.75/1.Are my maths s*it Gord? How did you work out those @ 22/1 and 12.5/1?
Let’s simplify things and get rid of the three zeros:
Ryanair:
5 X 14/1 = 70
70 – 3 (that is lost on Gold Cup) = 67 profit on the horse
Total invested is 5 (Ryanair) + 3 (Gold Cup) = 8
So 67 ‘/, 8 = 8.375
ie Total invested 8, producing a profit on the horse of 67 means the price taken is effectively 8.375/1.Gold Cup:
3 X 25/1 = 75
75 – 5 (that is lost on the Ryanair) = 70 profit on the horse
Total invested 5 + 3 = 8
So 70 ‘/, 8 = 8.75
ie Total invested 8, producing a profit on the horse of 70 means the price taken is effectively 8.75/1.Where have I "got my maths wrong" Gord?
ie Profit for the Ryanair of £67,000 divided by the over all stake of £8000 means an actual price taken for the Ryanair of 8.375/1 for the horse (not 14/1).
Where as if the horse were to win the Gold Cup instead, it would be £70,000 profit divided by £8000 for an actual price taken of 8.75/1 for the horse (not 25/1)
What’s even more revealing is this is not like being on two individual races at 8.375/1 AND another @ 8.75/1.
It’s effectively ONLY being on ONE horse @ 8.375/1 OR ONLY ONE horse @ 8.75/1, NOT BOTH. Because the two selections won’t both run.
Is it wise to take little more than 8/1 about a 14/1 chance or a little less than 9/1 about a 25/1 shot? No, you haven’t "explained".
If a punter thinks the price to win two different races at the Festival are both individually good value, and not certain where he’ll turn up: It may be best to ring William Hill and ask for a price to win ANY race at the Festival. The price offered is usually one price shorter than their price to win an individual race, ie if a horse were 14/1 for the Ryanair and 25/1 for the Gold Cup they’d probably offer 12/1 to win “any race” at the Festival.
The oddschecker list of the first 13 horses in William Hill’s market for "To win at the Festival" market, shows 10 of 13 are exactly 1 point shorter than William Hills price to win the most favoured individual race. eg Dynaste RSA 5/1, any race 4/1; Fingal Bay Jewson 10/1, any race 9/1 etc. The other three horses are less than 1 point different. So if you ring WH tomorrow morning Gord (when there’s a horse racing trader available) and ask for a price… With First Lieutenent’s RSA price being 10/1, they should in theory give you
9/1 Any
race.
Value Is Everything
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