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Gord champion hurdle not been run yet in 2014 no fact yet
And this DAWN APPROACH is no derby winner he get further than a mile but not 1m4 the derby winner is a talking horse like MARS or
TELESCOPE both been cut for race this week.Any thoughts as well from Ginger and Tommy too.
Also a question to all of you and not just for you gord.Any horses that are unraced or had 1run you be intrested for derby a few below.
INDIAN CHIEF
On debut went off 4/5fav but got beat by LOCH GARMAN at the time you be sad but that Bolger horse won a group one in France.So not a bad run by him with a winter on his back should pick up a early season maiden and run in a trail.Will be behind KINGSBARNS and MARS but could be a intresting horse.
AU REVOIR
Was trained by Andre Fabre and was 4th behind OCOVANGO i know gord not a fan of breeding this horse.But intresting it now being trained by O’Brien it is.
"Gingertipster":29vlfyhr wrote:
Classic TAPK.
For someone who claims to have backed Simonsig @ 4/1 on the machine a year ago for the Arkle; to now think double that price is never "value" betting 365 days in advance.
You will never understand fair value Gord.
Classic Ginge!
Simonsig
was 10/1 a year ago for the Arkle, I jumped on way too late at 4/1!
But where did I ever say he was ‘Value’ at 4/1???????? I never did,never ever!
I have no interest in understanding fair value Ginge as ‘Value’ isn’t everything at all and I’m not one for obsessing over such imponderables. You ****** up suggesting to your army of followers that ‘MTOY’ was value at 7/4 3 weeks before the race when you could get that on the day!! You will never understand the art of Ante-Post Betting Ginge
Yes darren I got the impression
Father of science
loved the ground and I noted his very round action,an Ebor type very possibly as I certainly didn’t see any classic aspirations from that performance.
Talking of which I have spotted this years St Leger winner already inModel Pupil
he was the only horse I fancied today and should have won.
I have always rated John Francomes opinions on everything Horseracing related but recently he’s been talking through his Ar*e,I’m sure he says things just to antagonise Jim Mcgrath who incidentally is as spineless as a Jellyfish when it comes to enforcing ones views,Johnny defending the O’Briens onSt Nicholas abbeys
pathetic performance the other day only confirms he has total disregard for times and ratings,Jimbo ‘could’ have easily put him right but as per usual sits back and closes his eyes pulls a smug look and moves on.Today Francome suggests the 2 favourites for the Chester Vase stood out from the others on looks and yet both ‘Model Pupil’ and ‘Mickdaam’ were two very imposing individuals to look at and both proved better than Johns 2,I’m just getting the feeling Francomes losing interest in his role and doesn’t take nor put the time in to his role like he used to and its beginning to tell,shame as Johnnys anecdotes and humourous observations have been his trademark.
An interesting observation from the King of foresight from May 10th last year,not only would
Model Pupil
have made them all go in the St Leger but I also noticed how Johnny Francomes attitude to C4 Racing was changing,so much so he did lose interest……….Completely! Sad loss imo though.
Oops indeed Gord.
Shame I didn’t see 10/1 Simonsig, that would’ve been a bet with a capitalB
!
Shame Darren didn’t see it either…On March 16th 2012 at 5:52 (that’s less than an hour after Cheltenham 2012 finished) Darren started the "Cheltenham 2013 tips" thread with…
darren83
Fri Mar 16, 2012 5:52 pm
Only some 360 days or so till next year any bets you have mine are
SIR DES CHAMPS Wins gold cup current price is 8/1
SIMONSIG to win arkle 4/1
https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … =3&t=89893
Funny how you (or anyone else) didn’t put Darren right about the price of Simonsig.
Darren is the King of foresight.
Value Is EverythingFunny how you (or anyone else) didn’t put Darren right about the price of Simonsig.
Darren is the King of foresight.
Darren is a very good judge and has an excellent record for putting one up way before others,I certainly rate him as a better Ante-Post judge than your goodself.
Simonsig
has always held a lofty reputation and was always seen as a Chasing type,he was shorter for the Arkle than he was for the Neptune when he incredibly got beat by ‘Fingal Bay’! Whats even more incredible is the fact that every man and his dog knew he was being trained for the Arkle before he even won the Neptune.There was plenty 10/1 around for the above race prior to his Neptune romp but that dissapeared the moment he won,he initially was a 6/1 shot straight after but Skybet kept him at 10/1 for all of a couple of hours,then 8/1 but he was well supported and by the end of the meeting 4/1 was his price.6 months later he was still a 4/1 shot before making his chasing debut in December,he went 2/1 after that and was cut to evens after Kempton,from that point onwards he was still backed and eventually went Odds-on during the last 3 weeks to the festival,from 8/11 he was backed solidly into the 8/15fav he returned at.’Simonsig’ supporters never had any anxious Ante-Post moments as like I said it just seemed to be common knowledge that he was always going the Arkle route.
My point of mentioning the 10/1 about him was to emphasise that he was available at what seems a generous price for a horse who seemed tailor-made for a particular race and those who really rated the horse had the possibilty of profiting from what was really a smooth ride to success,albeit a dissaponting run on the day!On March 16th 2012 at 5:52 (that’s less than an hour after Cheltenham 2012 finished) Darren started the "Cheltenham 2013 tips" thread with…
darren83
Fri Mar 16, 2012 5:52 pm
Only some 360 days or so till next year any bets you have mine are
SIMONSIG to win arkle 4/1
Ginge yo dopey git,I’ve just looked at the above thread and credit to darren again for putting
Simonsig
up on March 16th but if you look a day later on March 17th 2012,Guess who also puts the mighty Grey up for the Arkle???
Omg why do you bother with that Ginger toss pot, he loses continuously and only comes on your thread to wind you up and try to force trouble between you and other regulars!! Everyone can see he often needs 10-12 darts to hit the target unlike the majority of people!! Try not to bite and maintain the higher ground my goood man
On March 16th 2012 at 5:52 (that’s less than an hour after Cheltenham 2012 finished) Darren started the "Cheltenham 2013 tips" thread with…
darren83
Fri Mar 16, 2012 5:52 pm
Only some 360 days or so till next year any bets you have mine are
SIMONSIG to win arkle 4/1
Ginge yo dopey git,I’ve just looked at the above thread and credit to darren again for putting
Simonsig
up on March 16th but if you look a day later on March 17th 2012,Guess who also puts the mighty Grey up for the Arkle???
My point exactly Gord.
You criticised me for putting up Sir Des Champs @ 8/1 for the Gold Cup afull year in advance
…
And it turns out you were "looking at" backing Simonsig @ 4/1 for the Arkle a
full year in advance
.
Only "Looking at" mind you, it seems strange that whenever you are thinking about backing something – and it later shortens up – turns out you’ve backed it at the original price… Where as the ones you "look at" and the horse lengthens or is no longer in the race – turns out you haven’t backed and/or never heard of again in the thread. Funny that.
You must be the king of foresight… or something.Value Is EverythingI should have been at Doncaster today instead I’m freezing my balls off creating a Snow Hotel in my back garden,most normal Fathers would build their daughter a Snowman…..Or is it a SnowPerson in this ridiculous age of Political correctness?
Not I legendary King of Snow creations, I’m going to put some matting down and some Sheep skin rugs,(No sheep were injured in the making of the Snow Hotel),Little un asked if I can paint the walls inside Pink so I might spray some Ribena on them or something,you can tell I’m bored but hey freezing my nuts off is still better than watching All weather Sh*t and there’s more consistency to the Snow than there is to the form of these Sand Donkeys!Back to work in a Blizzard……..Just finished the Snow Hotel and incredibly it looks more like an igloo but hey my 4yo loves it.I just caught the end of the Nicky Henderson interview on C4 racing and it only confirms how these trainers know exactly where their horses are going to run long before they confirm with the public but its all part of the game second guessing a trainers mindset,thankfully I can! Pleased to hear him talking openly about just how good
Darlan
was and he was about to tell us where he thought he’d finish before Nick ‘I cant help buttin in’Luck jumps in and changes the subject.As for
My Tent or Yours
,I’m happy I took the 33/1,I’m dissapointed I missed the 66/1 for next years Champion hurdle but there’s just as many question marks about ‘Our conor’ and ‘The New one’ as their is to whether MTOY actually gets up the hill.Personally I believe over 2m around Cheltenham on Good ground,’The New One’ will prove to be a bigger danger than ‘Our Conor’.Strictly on form there is very little between the Henderson horse and the Twiston-Davies horse but I believe there is way more improvement in MTOY and I’ll be sticking with him.
Gord you did not reply back to my post on DAWN APPROACH not winning no derby.And other post where i asked out of the unraced or 1 race horses in epsom derby entries which ones you looking forward to. i put up 2 myself.Ask you as well Ginger and other members too.
Gord champion hurdle not been run yet in 2014 no fact yet
And this DAWN APPROACH is no derby winner he get further than a mile but not 1m4 the derby winner is a talking horse like MARS or
TELESCOPE both been cut for race this week.Any thoughts as well from Ginger and Tommy too.
Sorry for not responding to this post Darren.I agree
Telescope
looks like a Derby horse,I dont see ‘Mars’ as a Derby horse at all though,I see both as Dante horses and can see ‘Telescope’ winning that race and being cut to 3/1fav.Obviously I respect both horses but out of the 2 I prefer the Stoute horse.What concerns me about ‘Mars’ is his Dam was a 6f sprinter,an average one at that so I dont see where he gets the stamina from on breeding,I can remember the prolific ‘Smokin Beau’ beating her one day,’Massarra’ was a filly who’s reputation was based on hype rather than substance.
Also a question to all of you and not just for you gord.Any horses that are unraced or had 1run you be intrested for derby a few below.
INDIAN CHIEF
On debut went off 4/5fav but got beat by LOCH GARMAN at the time you be sad but that Bolger horse won a group one in France.So not a bad run by him with a winter on his back should pick up a early season maiden and run in a trail.Will be behind KINGSBARNS and MARS but could be a intresting horse.
AU REVOIR
Was trained by Andre Fabre and was 4th behind OCOVANGO i know gord not a fan of breeding this horse.But intresting it now being trained by O’Brien it is.
I dont fancy either of those horses Darren as until I see visual form that proves a horse will stay the Derby trip I tend to go on breeding and I’m not taken by either. There’s a couple of Coolmore Colts unraced but bred to get a trip that I’m waiting for,one is called
Sardinia
,the other
Victory Song
.The former is a ‘Galileo’ half brother to ‘Masterofthehorse’ who finished 3rd to ‘Sea the Stars’ in the 09 Derby.I have had a whole tenner on at 95’s,he currently trades at 55’s.
The latter trades at 370’s on the machine currently but I’m on at 130’s to a fiver! Early days but I do like going through the breeding of the Derby entries.I am still in jumps mode Darren, but my Timeform Racehorses annual should come this week so that will once again trigger my interest in the Flat.
I agree, at this stage can’t see Dawn Approach as a Derby horse. Sire won the Derby, but also fully effective at a mile. He’s a half brother to Comadoir who’s a winner at 7f and 6f. Comadoir is by Medicis, who was second in both the French Guineas and 7f Foret. Being by a sire that stays further than Medicis, you’d expect Dawn Approach to stay further than Comadoir. Guineas will be well within the Bolger horses’s stamina requirements. As he settles well may well get 1m2f; but in my opinion only "possible" rather than "probable" to get the Derby distance.
I Quite like Racing Post placed Steeler. On the face of it fully exposed, but in my opinion mostly raced over inadequate trips at two. Only had two races at a mile, won the Royal Lodge and third to Kingsbarns in Racing Post. In my opinion past his best at Doncaster on ground probably not to his liking. Although by Raven’s Pass, Steeler’s dam Discreet Brief won the "Filly’s St Leger" and most of the Discreet Brief’s progeny stay at least 1m4f. Trouble is he’s now left Mark Johnston for Godolphin.
The other one I’ve backed is a twice raced Andrew Balding trained colt also by Raven’s Pass, out of a half sister to Oaks winner Love Devine (dam of St Leger winner Sixties Icon). Saw Race And Status win a good 7f Newbury maiden on debut. Usually it is only at least Listed class animals from this stable that win first time out at all, let alone a Maiden of this quality. Just a couple of weeks later chased home Ghurair in a Sales race. Am confident he’ll be at least Group class. Stood out in the paddock at Newbury and one of the best looking two year olds I saw all year. Bound to improve a lot once filling his considerable frame.
Both are around 33/1. Am hoping one or both will make it to Epsom Darren.
Your Telescope is certainly bred to make a top class racehorse and showed plenty of promise at Newmarket. Best "nick" in the stud book. Number of top class horses by Galileo out of Darshaan mares (and before them the same family’s Northern Dancer/Mill Reef lines) – is endless. Good chance of staying the Derby trip, but not absolutely certain to do so. Telescope’s full brother Circumstances probably best up to 10.7 furlongs and although dam is a half sister to Derby third Moon Ballad – that one did not tuly stay. Twelve lengths behind High Chapperal and much better at shorter, winner of Dubai World Cup. Having said that, horses trained by Sir Michael usually stay further than if they were with most other trainers (Circumstances was with David Watchman). Telescope has obvious potential, but is a little too short in the betting now. Seem to remember you’re on at a big price Darren.
Value Is EverythingTelescope’s full brother Circumstances probably best up to 10.7 furlongs
Well
Circumstances
did run over 11.5 furlongs Ginge but only won over 11f,he was beaten over 10 furlongs 3 times so I’d say he was best over 11.2 furlongs myself!
Telescope’s full brother Circumstances probably best up to 10.7 furlongs
Well
Circumstances
did run over
11.5
furlongs Ginge but only won over
11f
, he was beaten over
10 furlongs 3 times
so I’d say he was best over 11.2 furlongs myself!
That is a very simplistic way of looking at form Gord.
I look in to form in a bit more detail; you aren’t very accurate in measurements. If you are going to try and put me right over distances Gord, suggest you get your facts straight. Umm,
no Circumstances did not run over 11.5f, it was 11.7 furlongs, and she (not he) did not win at 11f it was 10.7f and no she did not run three times at 10f, it was twice at 10f, once 10.5f and once 10.7f. Just because a horse wins a race does not mean it’s produced better form than finishing second in another race. Does a Seller winner produce better form than a Derby second?
You’ve obviously taken one look at Racing Post’s Circumstances form and taken their "11 furlongs" as accurate. One furlong is 220 yards. Circumstances won over 10 furlongs 150 yards. 150 yards being 0.68 furlongs. Which is why I said Circumstances was probably best at up to 10.7 furlongs. Your "11f" and my "10.7f" are the
same race
. Racing Post round distances up or down Gord, fair enough, it is only a summary and most punters would look further in to the races concerned. You might think of another race as "10f" Gord, in fact the difference between the "11f" and "10f" races is in this case just 50 yards (0.23 furlongs).
What is the better performance? Winning a race off a mark of 62 all out by a nose, neck and head… from horses on marks of 63, 63 and 62? Or a Second off a mark of 68, only a head behind a horse running off a mark of 77?
Circumstances
Won
the 10.7f handicap on 12th July 2012 at Dundalk off a mark of
62
.
Second
, third and fourth were only beaten a nose, neck and a head off marks of only
63
, 63 and 62. With Racing Post write up using words like
"hard ridden"
and
"all out"
, there is no suggestion Circumstances had much in hand at the finishing line…
The same month at Down Royal, Circumstances went on to finish
second
over 10 furlongs 100 yards (10.45f) off a 6 lbs higher mark of
68
. Beaten only a head by a horse (Jimtown) on a mark of
77
.
You may think Circumstances is better at 11f than 10f Gord. In my opinion she’s at least as good (if not better) at 10.5f as he is at 10.7f.
But what happened when she ran at 11.7f at Wexford? (It was not as you say "11.5f", it was 11f 160 yards, with 160 yards being 0.73f). Only 4th of 7 runners, although in truth the form isn’t much different to the other two runs (above). It was off a mark 2 lbs higher than Down Royal and 8 lbs higher than Dundalk… And only beaten a neck, 3/4 and 1/2 lengths.
However, it’s the
way she was beaten
more than anything else that strikes me could’ve done better at shorter than 11.7f. Racing Post write up says
"Raced in second, driven in to
clear
lead over 4 furlongs out, reduced advantage over 1f out, dropped to 4th and no extra final furlong"…
In my opinion that implies Circumstances did not truly get home at 11.7f and may have been able to improve had she raced on at shorter. Unfortunately below form at 10f on only subsequent start, on 9th run in little over 10 months and probably over the top.
As I said, in my opinion Telescope has a "good chance of staying the Derby trip, but not absolutely certain to do so".
Value Is Everything
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