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This time last week we were all gearing up for the first race of the festival and possibly the hottest Supreme on record – now that the dust has settled i’d like to hear your take on next years Champion Gord, especially as i’ll be hibinating shortly as the flat season looms.
So next years condenders, which ‘touch wood’, if all get there sound should make some race:-
Hurricane Fly – Another year older but on better ground will he be able to live with the speed of the younger horses coming thorugh.
Our Conor – Sluiced up in The Triumph. Still an unknown quantity but clearly the best of the 4 year olds from this year. Will be intrested to see how he fairs on better ground this spring.
My Tent Or Yours – Ran an excellent race in The Supreme bumping into an out n out stayer in Champayne Fever. I’m sure he’ll come on a bundle over the summer and possibly use the same race route as poor Darlin. Will he learn to find a some off the bit? Does he need to? Is the hill really that much of a problem? Chasing? A few questions to be answered but i’m sticking to my guns, this horse is the real deal and i believe will start fsavourite come March.
Jezki – Again, the ground didnt help this fella. We have seen a blistering turn of foot in previous races and i have no doubts that he’ll be a live danger next year.
The New One – Looked absolute class last week. The race completely fell into his hands given the lack of pace but to my eye looks a real Champion Hurdle prospect with the way he put the race to bed like he did.
Grandueut – Likely to be chasing next year IMO.
Rock On Ruby – Ditto above given that i expect HF to beat both convincingly in Ireland next month.
I’m happily sitting on 66/1 about MTOY’s but I didnt expect 2 real contenders to emerge like they did in TNO and Our Conor. Should be some race this!
- Total Posts 764
Just had a quick browse through the Lincoln entries, could see Prince of Johanne running a big race, he’s performed well coming off a break a couple of times and seems to do well in these big-field handicaps. He may get beat by some progressive types but I can see him being up there and is a decent e/w prospect.
Then again maybe it’s just the fact that I backed him for his Ascot win that’s swaying me, even so 25/1 on paddy seems generous! Would need the ground to become good, however.
This time last week we were all gearing up for the first race of the festival and possibly the hottest Supreme on record – now that the dust has settled i’d like to hear your take on next years Champion Gord, especially as i’ll be hibinating shortly as the flat season looms.
So next years condenders, which ‘touch wood’, if all get there sound should make some race:-
Hurricane Fly – Another year older but on better ground will he be able to live with the speed of the younger horses coming thorugh.
Our Conor – Sluiced up in The Triumph. Still an unknown quantity but clearly the best of the 4 year olds from this year. Will be intrested to see how he fairs on better ground this spring.
My Tent Or Yours – Ran an excellent race in The Supreme bumping into an out n out stayer in Champayne Fever. I’m sure he’ll come on a bundle over the summer and possibly use the same race route as poor Darlan. Will he learn to find a some off the bit? Does he need to? Is the hill really that much of a problem? Chasing? A few questions to be answered but i’m sticking to my guns, this horse is the real deal and i believe will start fsavourite come March.
Jezki – Again, the ground didnt help this fella. We have seen a blistering turn of foot in previous races and i have no doubts that he’ll be a live danger next year.
The New One – Looked absolute class last week. The race completely fell into his hands given the lack of pace but to my eye looks a real Champion Hurdle prospect with the way he put the race to bed like he did.
Grandueut – Likely to be chasing next year IMO.
Rock On Ruby – Ditto above given that i expect HF to beat both convincingly in Ireland next month.
I’m happily sitting on 66/1 about MTOY’s but I didnt expect 2 real contenders to emerge like they did in TNO and Our Conor. Should be some race this!TAPK, legendary ruler of the Ante-Post kingdom,King of Foresight,Lover and Fighter,fearless intrepid Punter and extroadinarily good judge of Wine,Women and Horses is proud and humbled to have achieved a landmark 60,000 views to ‘A Kings Ransom’.No other thread in the history of the universe,well on this fine forum has got near such audiences.I congratulate everyone who has made the effort to contribute to this great thread and to those who read it.Well Done and Thank you all.Another 10,000 views in the next 6 weeks will take some achieving I know but that was the figure I set out to achieve back on the 29th April 2012.Whats helped is from day one I have incredibly kept it in the
My Tent or Yours
I’m hard on the steel,travelling with consumate ease,I’ll let another reef out on Saturday then its National time and finally the Big one."A New Dawn Approaches" will be the name of my next best seller and I’ll go for the big 100,000 views in a year!
Cool B*stard I am……….Its time to hit ‘Rock City’ tonight for the Greatest band in the world,here’s the appropriately named ‘Relentless’!Olas one horse missing from that list and that is
ANNIE POWER when i said this horse to gord he said she more a stayer which is a fair point. but if you look horses in neptune and even Hurricane Fly won over 2m4 so staying further than 2m is no bad thing. and with Quevega in mares race this should be the target for her in 2014.Defy Logic is not a slow horse he got speed as well but she went past him easy she did.I would bring her to fighting fifth and Christmas hurdle and go for another race and meet the fly on champion hurdle day.Gord this traning lark is easy it is am sure
Mr Mullins can read this good advice i am offering.Also gord on our friend DEFY LOGIC it is clear he go over fences next year but what you think be his best trip i think he got pace for arkle but could go for jewson as he far better than other winner yard had in NOBLE PRINCE.I know you think Logic is a bit of a mad one
Il be happy with soft ground for both mine and very happy to see Frank has been booked to ride Chapter Seven as he is best held up out the back, can see even more money arriving
I notice today bookmakers shortening up horses entered for the Lincoln just for the sake of it,the first 5 in the betting were all priced at 6/1, 10/1, 12/1, 14/1, and 16/1 at the 5 day stage and yet trade at 6/1, 6/1, 6/1, 9/1 and 10/1 now,strange considering how there’s still 91 declared as there was at the start of the week.Another reason why I encourage Ante-Post betting as all this does is confirm the sheer greed of the High St Bookmaker!
Gord what you think of my previous post for you on those 2 horses
And just had a quick look at Irish national any thoughts on
SEA OF THUNDER 25/1
Owner has a lot of horses in race but he run at least of 3 of them but most want bad ground. and also they had long season but with this horse he needs fast ground which he could get. and with him missing Cheltenham that could be a good thing for him.
I notice today bookmakers shortening up horses entered for the Lincoln just for the sake of it,the first 5 in the betting were all priced at 6/1, 10/1, 12/1, 14/1, and 16/1 at the 5 day stage and yet trade at 6/1, 6/1, 6/1, 9/1 and 10/1 now,strange considering how there’s still 91 declared as there was at the start of the week.Another reason why I encourage Ante-Post betting as all this does is confirm the sheer greed of the High St Bookmaker!
That’s a very one-sided view of ante-post betting Gord.
It’s obvious, getting a run for your money is one of the biggest things in ante-post betting and the fact non-runners are losers enables bookmakers to offer "bigger" prices.
You might be one of the few who can spot individual ante-post value Gord. However, the fact bookmakers bet to a smaller over-round on the day, means the average punter will do better waiting until the day.
More likely a horse is of running – the shorter it will be in the betting. Once horses are declared for the 5 day stage – they are more likely to run. Indeed, unless otherwise stated by the trainer – a 5 day entry could be seen as an "intention to run".
There may be "91 declared", but only ? will run (is it 30?). Top 30 in the handicap at the 5 day stage gives a far better indication of who’s going to run – than the top 30 of the previous entry stage. Therefore, many horses will shorten up at the 5 day entry stage.
Stakes of
all ante-post non-runners
(not getting a run for their money) need to be
added
to the
over-all returns
of ante-post gamblers to find out if they genuinely get better value. ie See the example below and
MULTIPLY BY THE NUMBER OF BETS A PUNTER HAS
eg. An ante-post punter backs two 12/1 shots for two different races. Only one turns up for its race and is available @ only 6/1 on the day. ie one 12/1 horse is a loser without getting a run. Another punter takes 6/1 on the day, without any danger of not getting a run…
The ante-post punter may believe he/she has got far better value than the day-of-race punter. However…Two bets at 12/1 where only one takes part is exactly the same bet as one bet @ 11/2 that does take part.
Punter A bets 2 points in all on day of race:
2 points @ 6/1 returns 14 points.Punter B bets 2 points in all:
1 point @ 12/1 loser without getting a run.
1 point @ 12/1 returns 13 points.
2 points staked in total, 13 points returned.2 points @ 11/2 staked on the day would also return 13 points for an over all 2 points staked.
Punter A, with 6/1 has ended up with better value on-the-day.
Well done Gord, you’ve got value with Captain Bertie as an individual bet. But as a statement about the over all value of ante-post betting – I do think you’re looking through rose-coloured specs.
Value Is EverythingOlas one horse missing from that list and that is
ANNIE POWER when i said this horse to gord he said she more a stayer which is a fair point. but if you look horses in neptune and even Hurricane Fly won over 2m4 so staying further than 2m is no bad thing. and with Quevega in mares race this should be the target for her in 2014.Defy Logic is not a slow horse he got speed as well but she went past him easy she did.I would bring her to fighting fifth and Christmas hurdle and go for another race and meet the fly on champion hurdle day.Gord this traning lark is easy it is am sure
Mr Mullins can read this good advice i am offering.Also gord on our friend DEFY LOGIC it is clear he go over fences next year but what you think be his best trip i think he got pace for arkle but could go for jewson as he far better than other winner yard had in NOBLE PRINCE.I know you think Logic is a bit of a mad one
Darren I like your style but
Annie Power
wont be doing a ‘Flakey dove’ mate,one quite simply because the female species of the horse just dont win Champion hurdles,that Stat alone puts a line straight through her,sorry to burst your bubble! As for this
Defy Logic
he too is a 3m horse,I’m not interested in looking at any prices for him to run in anything less than an RSA even then I could pick 3 in front of him,I just dont like his head carriage and the chance of 2 ‘Tidal Bays’ coming along at the same time just wont happen either!
Concerned about the weather forecast mate? Won’t be too promising if the snow arrives
Concerned about the weather forecast mate? Won’t be too promising if the snow arrives
TAPK has a dilemma!
Having lost more Ante-Post money on First Lieutenant
than any other horse this past year due to backing him for the Gold Cup, only for him to take in the Ryanair instead I am asking my fellow contributors of this thread for those not lacking in the feint hearted department to ponder this question,a serious question that needs considered thought before answering………
Boston Bob
is a decent Ante-Post price for next years Gold Cup at 25/1 but is he a Gold Cup horse?,Is he a Ryanair type?,or is his jumping questionable enough to suggest he’s a World hurdler? These questions are fitting for such a horse owned by Graham Wylie as he’s not afraid to ‘juggle’ his horses from Fences to hurdles if he feels the need.Perhaps ‘Boston Bob’ is just too risky a proposition for an Ante-Post wager.Personally I felt it was a risk taking in the RSA on what was only his 3rd run over fences but I know this horse is very well regarded and the RSA was always his target,a target I was convinced he was capable of winning and he very nearly did!
Thanks for your responses in advance as its a tough one this and I appreciate the knowledge of others.
regards,Gord.Hi Gord, I’ve been pondering this post for a few days now as I struggled to work out the Gold Cup picture for next year. Having watched the Gold Cup and RSA many times now and one thing I’m sure of is Boston Bob is not a Ryanair horse. As you know I backed him for the RSA many months ago and was gutted when he came down, and imo if he’d winged the last he wouldn’t have been passed. If there is a Gold Cup horse to come from the RSA it is surely Boston Bob. We’ll never know what would have happened if he’d jumped the last but given the way he flew up the hill at Leopardstown you’d have to think he would have done the same here. On to the Gold Cup… I’ve done a lot of mouthing about Sir Des Champs over the past year and he was just beaten by a better horse on the day. I’d question McCoy’s logic in joining Long Run so early in the race, I very much doubt Davy Russell would have done the same. He was very close to Bobs Worth with 50 yards to run and it was only in that final 50 yards that Bobs Worth put an further 5 lengths between them. I also don’t buy Nicky Henderson’s claims that Bobs Worth would have been better suited to good ground: he stays all day and romped home in a Hennessy on soft. Coming into the straight Sir Des Champs was cruising, he hit the second last and lost 2 lengths. He somehow managed to get going again to get within 2 of Bobs Worth until that final 50 yards. As I’m writing this I’m convincing myself more and more that Sir Des Champs will win next year’s Gold Cup, as long as the ground is genuinely
good
. I think he’ll have too much speed for Bobs Worth although I respect that one is definitely the horse to beat. You’d also like to think that on genuinely good ground Sir Desmond will jump better, as he got in close to a good few of them on Friday. Lots of ifs and maybes I know, but on good ground I wouldn’t desert Sir Desmond for any horse.
Well done Gord, you’ve got value with Captain Bertie as an individual bet. But as a statement about the over all value of ante-post betting – I do think you’re looking through rose-coloured specs.
Ginge I look at everything with the glass half full attitude,you are more the half empty sort.Anyone who takes a cynical approach to their betting is advised to avoid betting Ante-Post full stop as its really not for those of a sensitive disposition.Without sounding conceited and I know its difficult for me when I was born ‘Special’ but there is absolutely nobody who knows more about Ante-Post betting than moi,nobody and that includes Tom the Seagull.I didn’t have a spectacular Cheltenham as I only had 4 winners but those horses alone were backed at (12/1 down,SP 9/4). (4/1,SP 8/15). (6/1 down,SP 11/8) and (8/1 down,SP 3/1).3 of those 4 winners were on only one horse per race,No Ante-Post losers on anything else.The first winner backed at 12’s 10’s 8’s and 4’s to £400’s worth of bets more than covered the £200 I lost on my Ante-Post non runner so if I have collected £3500 and laid out £600 I am still showing a profit of 5/1 compared to the 9/4 returned on the day.Thanks to my Ante-Post foresight I collected place money on
My Tent or Yours
at 20/1 and stubbornly refused to back anything else.I was lucky to collect at all on
Hadrians Approach
but at 25/1,SP 7/1 I still made a small profit even accounting for being robbed on my 10/1,SP 5/1 shot ‘Boston Bob’.
Rule the world
at 12/1,SP 5/1 again made a profit being the only horse I backed in the Neptune,thanks to e/w betting.
Shutthefrontdoor
,10/1,SP 6/1 made a small profit but that again is all down to the price.
Alfie Sherrin
,20/1,SP 9/1 again thanks to the price beat the book e/w and accomodated an Ante-Post loss on another horse.
First Lieutenant
was my worst result as even though I backed him for a place at 5’s on the machine I still lost on the horse as I had way too much on him for the Gold Cup,had he won the Ryanair I would have had a far better Cheltenham.To say I back horses all year round for targets a year ahead I only had one bad Ante-Post loser on a horse who failed to turn up and that was the potential Champion hurdler
Darlan
who I had backed at 25/1 e/w Ante-Post.My most frustrating horse at the Festival was
Cantlow
as I lost £400 on him for backing him in the wrong bloody races!I expect that to happen but all the above horses had multiple entries and I was ‘lucky’ they all turned up for the race I predicted!I have tried to explain to you before that I will generally protect my stake by Laying in running at the shortest price I dare press the Lay button at,thankfully I was in such a strong position with ‘MTOY’ at 30’s down that I could afford to lay him at 7/4 early doors and 1/3 in running to protect my stakes but because its impossible to predict whats going to happen I avoid contributing any of my Betfair activity on here although I did say
Kid Cassidy
was the best back to lay proposition of the day at 14’s to play and Evens to lay,I did that by pre-setting my wager and it worked well even though he touched odds on in running very briefly! Quite simply Ginge,its all about piecing the jig-saw puzzle together long before the race has any shape to it and knowing that certain pieces will click together very early on.Still a feeling second to none when you’ve pieced it all together months before the race and the result shows you were bang on…………Bit like that 1000 piece jigsaw I completed last June when I said
Dawn Approach
will win the 2014 Guineas……….Foresight is a gift voucher with a Sell by date!
Hi Gord, I’ve been pondering this post for a few days now as I struggled to work out the Gold Cup picture for next year. Having watched the Gold Cup and RSA many times now and one thing I’m sure of is Boston Bob is not a Ryanair horse. As you know I backed him for the RSA many months ago and was gutted when he came down, and imo if he’d winged the last he wouldn’t have been passed. If there is a Gold Cup horse to come from the RSA it is surely Boston Bob. We’ll never know what would have happened if he’d jumped the last but given the way he flew up the hill at Leopardstown you’d have to think he would have done the same here. On to the Gold Cup… I’ve done a lot of mouthing about Sir Des Champs over the past year and he was just beaten by a better horse on the day. I’d question McCoy’s logic in joining Long Run so early in the race, I very much doubt Davy Russell would have done the same. He was very close to Bobs Worth with 50 yards to run and it was only in that final 50 yards that Bobs Worth put an further 5 lengths between them. I also don’t buy Nicky Henderson’s claims that Bobs Worth would have been better suited to good ground: he stays all day and romped home in a Hennessy on soft. Coming into the straight Sir Des Champs was cruising, he hit the second last and lost 2 lengths. He somehow managed to get going again to get within 2 of Bobs Worth until that final 50 yards. As I’m writing this I’m convincing myself more and more that Sir Des Champs will win next year’s Gold Cup, as long as the ground is genuinely
good
. I think he’ll have too much speed for Bobs Worth although I respect that one is definitely the horse to beat. You’d also like to think that on genuinely good ground Sir Desmond will jump better, as he got in close to a good few of them on Friday. Lots of ifs and maybes I know, but on good ground I wouldn’t desert Sir Desmond for any horse.
Excellent post Tommy,I’m pleased you are keeping the faith with
Sir des Champs
as I admire loyalty.If you put the horse in a parade of 50 others we would be able to single him out as he really is a beauty who has prescence.I would be seriously tempted with him myself at 10/1 as he can only get better.If someone said to me "You can have 25/1 about ‘Boston Bob’ or 25/1 about ‘SDS’" I’d snatch their hand off as he’s a certainty for a place,I’m just looking at the race from an Ante-Post perspective whereby I see a horse,a Mullins horse in particular looking likely to be targeted for one reason or another to the Gold Cup and will come in significantly over time,I see that in
Boston Bob
.
Concerned about the weather forecast mate? Won’t be too promising if the snow arrives
None hear at the moment,cold mornings definitely warm up during the day like they are supposed to at this time of year mate! Let me know if Catterick gets any because if you do so will Donny.I’ll be Pissed off if its off when I’m sitting on a 16/1 winner!!
Gord what you think of my previous post for you on those 2 horses
And just had a quick look at Irish national any thoughts on
SEA OF THUNDER 25/1
Owner has a lot of horses in race but he run at least of 3 of them but most want bad ground. and also they had long season but with this horse he needs fast ground which he could get. and with him missing Cheltenham that could be a good thing for him.
That horse cost me last year at Cheltenham mate and he really does need Good ground but will he get it??
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