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Ok just for fun I will mop up the remainder and make a rudimentary argument for each:
The Tin Man – performances this season obviously a negative and the reason for his lack of support but form at this track – all in this race- reads 231 on soft, heavy, heavy
Waldpfad Beat the favourite at Newbury 6 short weeks ago giving him 8lb. Has to give much less weight away today. Didn’t see the German race but how much pace was on? From a glance at his race notes he’s a holdup horse, at the post he split the two horses who had lead most of the way, everything else sounded a bit rubbish so he mightn’t have had much to aim at.
Also will stay loyal to Fairyland and was happy to see explanation for poor run LTO
50p EW on all three
Tinman was tipped on page 1 at 20/1 by Kris.
The only non tipped horse was the german one Waldpfad.
We have them all! Few people tipping up Waldpfad in the RP this morning actually. Indication was that the ground was a bit quicker than ideal last time out. Sorry Kris, missed that post.
Well done everyone, we have successfully tipped the winner between us!
ACHTUNG EVERYONE!!
THE SPRINT’S AS GOOD AS WON
HIS NAME MEANS FOREST TRAIL
THERE’S NO WAY HE CAN FAIL
YOU KNOW THAT YOU’VE BEEN HAD
IF YOU THINK THEY CAN BEAT WALDPFAD
SO FOR YOU, THE RACE IS OVER
AND THE GERMAN NAG’S IN CLOVERGet ready for Waldpfad to destroy his enemies!!!
I don’t know why I bothered to put my 50p on EW…should have put the lot on the nose. My money is safer on the end of Waldpfad’s schozz than it would be in Fort Knox.
I’VE NEVER BEEN SO CONFIDENT
Nice green. Here is my effort.
A LOT HAS BEEN WRITTEN
A LOT HAS BEEN SAID
BUT ONE SHAKE OF THE REINS
MAJOR LEAVES THEM FOR DEADSOMEOME FOUND THE GREAT WINNER HIS NAME WAS POT
ITS A FIRST GROUP 1 WINNER FOR SUPERMAN STOTT
RYAN TELLS US THE MAJOR IS IN THE FORM OF HIS LIFE
TURNS OUT HE WASNT JOKING CUTS THROUGH THIS LOT LIKE A KNIFEHE LEADS FROM PILLAR TO POST
THEY ALL ASSUME HE IS GOING TO COME TO A STOP
BUT HERE COMES THE WINNING LINE AND JUMBOS CLEARLY ON TOPSO FINALLY ZEBEDEE GETS A DESERVED GROUP 1 WINNER
IF YOU EVER DOUBTED HIM THEN YOU WONT EAT WELL FOR DINNER66/1 RACINGS GREATEST EVER GROUP 1 WAGER
SHAME ON YOU IF EVEN FOR A SECOND YOU DOUBTED THE LEGENDARY MAJORMANY PEOPLE TALK A LOT OF MUMBO JUMBO
BUT ITS THOSE WHO SAID NO CHANCE WHO ENDED UP LOOKING LIKE THE DUMBO Another one here that is quite confident he has the winner for this.
Surprised there wasn’t more tips for him but maybe some of you like the bigger prices.The horse in question is Dream Of Dreams. A repeat of the Ascot run should be enough to win this. The ground was way too firm for him last time.
If he hadn’t run in it and come here instead he’d probably be about a 15-8 chance. As it is 5-1 ew 4 places looks a steal.Good luck all you fellow confident people.
In another yard he’d be coming here as a Diamond Jubilee winner. He is still overpriced I agree Mike. The nagging doubt in my mind was the run at Ascot was such an Ascot specialist type run, but we can definitely ignore his Newmarket run as he’s run shockers there every time, so clearly doesn’t like the place. I’m well in for him, so hoping he is bang on that Ascot form. I am very quietly confident, but then thats the way I like to be. The proof will be in the pudding for sure!
I wanted to like Dream Of Dreams I really did but with a record of 0 wins from 15 tries in group company I couldnt fancy him especially at short odds.
I think Stoute probably had him 100% tuned for Royal Ascot and he ran the race of his life. Im not sure he can replicate that run again. Was nearer last than first in his two other group 1 runs.I wont rule him out due to the genius of Sir Michael Stoute and the fact that his father Dream Ahead did win this race on fast ground from the magic stall 9 but I will be surprised if he can reel in the Major today.
Dream Of Dreams has improved this season on firmer and/or all weather so is possible won’t reproduce Jubilee form. But before 2019 his soft ground form was just as good as his good-firm up to that point… Including when second in the 7f Supreme at Goodwood on very soft ground… Which both suggests he could be equally as good on this surface and the greater test of stamina soft ground produces could even suit (Ascot was firmer but Ascot suited him being is a slower track). Also does not have the pointy toe of one who needs a firmish surface. Disappointed at Newmarket, but although consistent elsewhere has run poorly at headquarters before and that meeting seemed to greatly disadvantage hold up horses. Stoutey is in excellent form right now. Although has a poor strike rate in Group races, that does not pay justice to DOD’s ability. Typical Stoute older horse improver. Worth bearing in mind finished alongside Blue Point at Ascot (ie has the best form here) clear of the rest and beat subsequent easy Hungerford winner Glorious Journey and The Tin Man at Windsor. One worry for me is – although has appeared effective racing prominently in the past – his (so far) stand out performance was when dropped out the back and coming late. Horses don’t have the same ability to quicken on softer and if those tactics are employed here it’ll be relying on them going a good pace up front… Problem is can’t find much definite pace here! That said the price imo makes Dream Of Dreams worth taking the chance/backing.
Be daft for stable companions Major Jumbo and Hello Youmzain to take each other on up front, so a lot could depend on Forever in Dreams – this race could prove muddling. I was too greedy! On betfair asked for 99/1 MJ and just too late for the 20/1 FID – unfortunately shortening significantly and imo now no longer value. Could prove big mistake not taking that orginal 84/1 and 20/1 if either/both get soft leads! Best of luck Potato!
tbh Even with a potential pace advantage Hello Youmzain seems very short and have laid him a little. Admittedly hasn’t had much racing so true could yet improve, but finished behind Forever In Dreams at Ascot and – on current form – flattered by beating an injured Calyx… That said, is Hello Youmzain an improved horse at home? Is he easily beating both Brando and Mister Jumbo on the gallops? 
Would explain the positive market move this morning. 
Have backed the other Ryan horse Brando who – being a hold up horse – is another who’ll in perfect conditions would like them to go a good pace. However, has run really well in slowly run races before (eg Harry Angel’s July Cup) and has plenty of pace when in form (is a bit inconsistent but has raced in the best company). Back to form in the Maurice De Gheest last time (despite rider needing to put his iron right when challenging). Considering they’re sprints, beaten a fair bit less distance by Advertise in France than Forever In Dreams and Hello Youmzain were at Ascot. Brando also has both soft ground form and Haydock form (1/2 length second to The Tin Man in this last year). 9/1 Brando looked enormous, I make him a fair 13/2. Stable in very good form. The Tin Man himself will prove popular but everything this season suggests age may be catching up with him.
Sprint king Charlie Hills has the favourite Khaadem. Won the Stewards Cup under a big weight (for a 3 year old) and I have no doubts he’s up to this standard. Trouble is the ground. Stewards Cup is so far a standout performance on a sound surface and – although has some form on good-soft this may be a touch softer still… And possibly importantly his action is imo more of a top-of-the-ground performer who’ll therefore probably find it harder to quicken in today’s conditions than Goodwood’s fast track on a fastish surface.
Fairyland found 5f too quick in the Nunthorpe but was that enough to explain such a bad performance? Not much time to recover either. Didn’t finish much further behind Advertise in the July Cup than Brando did in the Maurice De Gheest. However, for a three year old her form is very much exposed and unraced on a soft surface since debut albeit a winning one. Does have soft ground influences Pivotal and Dream Ahead in the dams-side but Kodiac is her sire. Stable companion So Perfect was third at York but take Battaash out and it wasn’t a good Group 1 field. Beaten 4 3/4 lengths which is well over a stone in weight at 5f. That was on very firm ground and this is totally different. Scat Daddy american pedigree and so far not at her best on a softer surface.
Invincible Army has a chance if coming back to his best, but what went wrong in France last time out?
Seems better able to dominate lesser grades, but at his best isn’t much behind the principles, positive market support would be interesting.Waldpfad‘s chance is difficult to access. Greatly improved when coming from well off the pace in a listed race at Newbury on softish ground. Probably grossly flattered beating a Khaadem (who was yet to run to his best). Then only a week ago beaten in his native Germany by Royal Intervention (who is not up to this class) on Good. Waldpfad possibly needs this surface so that’s a positive, but not much time to recover from latest run and may well also want a stronger run race than he’ll get here.
Backed Brando and Dream Of Dreams, laid Hello Youmzain.
Value Is EverythingKHADEEM – May need fast ground to show his best amd charlie hills runners not exactly on fire. 19 of last 21 runners were unplaced he did have 2 winners but they both were favs with open goals in small field races so stable form is possibly an issue. 14 of those 21 runners unplaced were single figure odds including favs. Has to be taken on.
DREAM OF DREAMS – 0 from 15 in group company amd ran flat as a pancake last time. Im out.
FAIRYLAND and SO PERFECT – When the most powerful trainer in europe who has an insane ammount of top class firepower at his disposal is 0 from 18 at a track then somethings wrong. Maybe this is the 1 track where he runs horses with their handicap mark in mind or maybe thats fantasy. either way Im out.
HELLO YOUMZAIN- Only 1 3yo in the last 30 years won this on his first run against elders and that horse was unbeaten after 4 runs coming into the race. CLearly stable 3rd string on jockey bookings.
THE TIN MAN- If he returns to his best he could win. That looks a big if though.
WALDPFAD has the beating of the fav on earlier season form but ran flat last time. A leap of faith required.
FOREVER IN DREAMS- I wont be surprised if she goes close in this though more likely to place than win I feel.
BRANDO- Must have a decent chance though single figure odds on a horse who has twice been beat in this race doesnt appeal to me. Definitely a possible winner however.
INVINCIBLE ARMY- Poorly drawn in stall 1 but likely to be flying at the finish and has a chance.
MAJOR JUMBO – LOCK AND LOAD, POINT AND SHOOT, AIM AND FIRE,
Tell the team to get the wheelbarrows ready at the payout counter
Might have taken about 3 pages of bickering but Hello Youmzain does the business as 3rd string
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!DOD lost it at the start, Mike. Hello Youmzain out quick and made all. Oops!
Well done winners. Value Is EverythingWell done Hello Youmzain backers, James Doyle rode a blinder for Kevin Ryan. 3 year olds superior once again also 2nd placed The Tin Man, what a race he ran. Brando 4th not disgraced behind the German horse and AOB retains his no winners at Haydock record both fillies ran flat today.
Lots to take out of that race and lessons learnt for next time.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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