£2m jackpot at Navan

[kasparov]

The Uttoxeter jackpot was surprisingly not won. So it rolls over to…….Navan! Looks like some fairly typical Irish jump racing. I expect the jackpot will be won as most permutations will be covered, but there is a very small chance that it might roll over again if a lot of outsiders win.

Probably there will be a reasonable return for the ‘average’ player in the pool. Unfortunately most will see a return of -100% and a few will see a return of a lot.

Probably the safest mathematical approach is sequential hedging ie laying all your selections for larger and larger amounts as you go along until your jackpot chance disappears but this is quite complex and can require a lot of capital if say you pick the winners of the first 5. Also if you happen to pick popular perms you can lose money overall.

So pragmatically maybe worth sticking a few quid on a few lines that are plausible but might not be popular, and look to start hedging back on the fifth and sixth races if you are still in the game at that stage.

An alternative is simply to back the remaining pool tickets in the sixth race. The hope is that a punter hoping to win say a £500,000 share of the pool on a 8-1 shot in the sixth race will hedge back aggressively and distort its odds upwards so you can take advantage.

[Mr. Pilsen]

I’ve got this down as a 72 liner, no probs.

1. Fave

2. 3+4

3. Fave

4. 2+5+6

5. 2+5+16+17

6. 1+6+9

Easy

[uncleseanie]

unless there is some special arrangement the Irish jackpot is always 4 races 3,4,5,6 on the card. So the jackpot will definitely be won. The question is how many winners there will be. As so many people will be playing its likely the divy will be small, so I wouldn’t be staking large. I’m guessing the dividend will be in the low hundreds.

[chalk jockey]

The U.K. Jackpot carryover will be on races 1 to 6.The Irish Tote will do a separate pool.

If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.

[apracing]

How can the UK Tote run a Jackpot on a meeting held in the Republic of Ireland?

Even by the already low standards of Baldfred, this is a joke decision when there are perfectly good meetings at Carlisle and Ffos Llas.

The only possible ‘justification’ is that the Navan card is more difficult and increases the chances of another carryover, but it’s still ridiculous that the punters who have contributed to the £1M already in the pool are expected to switch their attention to Ireland.

What next – carry forwards to Meydan, or Santa Anita for the Breeders Cup?

Here’s one customer that will never play the Jackpot again after today.

[Mr. Pilsen]

Hope your last throw of the dice came up trumps, AP.

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