2023 Grand National

My usual stab at going through the field. Weather could still play a part, which made life more difficult, but gave it a go anyway.

Any Second Now
No easy task off top weight, but at the same time, he’s certainly deserved that burden. Just a very likeable type, who I don’t think will have too many concerns over the ground, and appears to be as good as ever. Routinely starts his season slowly, but he appeared to be a lot more forward than usual on his seasonal bow in December, going down narrowly to Saint Sam over hurdles at Punchestown, and he followed this up with a respectable effort in The Irish Gold Cup, before landing The Webster Cup. The biggest concern is that there’s just the suspicion that his chance may have gone, and he may just be a “bridesmaid” horse in this race. He was the standout entry in 2020, before we were locked down, and he would have definitely have won but for being brought to a standstill in 2021. He of course followed this up with his excellent effort into second last year, only finding the well handicapped Noble Yeats too good. Although he’s going to bump into a few better handicapped horses, he has a very solid look to him, and he’s very difficult to keep out of the frame. Should be bang there, but that extra 7lbs might take it’s toll for win purposes.

Noble Yeats
Reigning Champ, and has had a decent season, following up his Wexford win (weak race) in the Autumn, with a very taking performance in The Many Clouds. Slightly ran off his his feet in The Cotswold, and The Gold Cup, eventually doing his best work at the end in both races. A return to this trip is sure to play to his strengths, but of obvious concern is the significantly higher weight he has to shoulder. Ground could maybe pose issues, and though he has the very able Sean Bowen up, and has enough boxes ticked, that weight may just ensure a supporting role this year.

Galvin
Has looked to be National type since his early days, and he’s certainly following the path that Elliot likes his National horses to take. Started the season off very nicely at Punchestown, before two notable poor performances when stepped back up in grade, perhaps hinting at a physical issue (later confirmed to have kissing spine). He dispelled any concerns though in The Cross Country at Cheltenham, going down narrowly to stablemate Delta Work, and perhaps had his jockey not been struggling, then the outcome just might have been different. He’s certainly in good nick then, and I think he’s good enough to carry his big enough weight. He’s a very straightforward looking one here off the back of that Cheltenham run, and I’d expect him to be there heading for home. Major player with the ground in his favour.

Fury Road
Runs regularly at the highest grade, and his run in The Irish Gold Cup was encouraging, though the jury is out as to whether he simply didn’t see it out, or it was too big an ask to go with Galopin Des Champs. Less impressive was his last run in The Ryanair. He’s certainly got questions to answer, particularly on the stamina front, but I liked the way he stuck to the task in The Savills, and I think he’ll get home ok. Fair weight to carry though, on overall achievements, and that’s enough to look elsewhere, for all he looks well overpriced, and has the assistance from Jonjo Jnr in the saddle.

The Big Dog
This has been the plan for some time, and he’s a fairly reliable yardstick in these staying chases. Really came to the fore with his win in The 2021 Punchestown National Trial, before a fair spell on the sidelines. He’s really bounced back though this season, winning both The Munster National and The Troytown, before a very respectable third in The Welsh National. He fell when last seen in The Irish Gold Cup, and that’s the run that I feel cements his chances here. Perhaps pushing it to say that he would’ve troubled Galopin Des Champs, but he was bang there when he fell two out, and was in the process of running a big race. It’s easy to say that he’s maybe too high in the weights now after the seasons he’s had, but that Leopardstown run suggests that there should be more to come, and he’s hard to pick holes in, with the ground possibly being the only slight worry.

Capodanno
He’d be coming here as one of the least experienced, but that doesn’t come close to reflecting his chances. Only ran once this season, when he faded out of things in The Red Mills, but that wouldn’t concern me, being seasonal debut, and over an inadequate trip. He’s in the best of hands, and I think he’s best judged on his win last year at The Punchestown Festival. I thought he was worthy of his place in The Gold Cup, but significant that they’ve came straight here instead. There’s almost definitely more to come, and a big run surely from him on Saturday.

Delta Work
Treading a similar path to last year, when he made the frame, following on from a win in The Cross Country at Cheltenham. Even before that win, he looked to be rest assured to come here in good nick, with that win only confirming his well-being. One of the easier horses to assess, and looks impossible to leave out of things. Should go very well

Sam Brown
Very useful type in his younger days, and he eventually fulfilled that promise when winning The Freebooter here last year. Until that win he was generally considered to be a soft ground specialist, but his performance that day on Good to Soft dispelled that myth. His season hasn’t really went according to plan, not troubling the judge on any occasion, but given his inconsistent profile, he’s hard to write off with any confidence. We now know there’s no concerns with the weather, his trainer can get him ready when it matters, and there’s enough runs in his past to give supporters some hope. His prep run over hurdles was fairly encouraging, and at a massive price, he’s not a lost cause.

Lifetime Ambition
Jumped well round here in November, before an excellent second to The Big Dog in The Troytown. He’s got lots of pieces of good form in a higher grade than this, but it’s that run at Navan that gives him most appeal. He was very prominent that day, and was a fair sight out in front, and that should stand him in good stead round here, should they adopt similar tactics. Trainer doesn’t send that many to The National, and she went close four years back with Magic Of Light. She looks to have a live one on her hands here, and though I’ve seen some concerns mentioned over stamina, I don’t share those concerns. This is his time of year, and he should go well.

Carefully Selected
Looked potentially top class in his younger days, but after disappointing at Cheltenham in 2020, it was best part of three years before we seen him again. That was in The Paddy Power at Leopardstown, where he ran very well, before a gutsy win in The Thyestes. He’s got a few pounds extra on his back as a result of that, and he hardly shone in The Bobbyjo next time out. On his day, as good as most of these, but has to cut out the errors, and it would just be a slight surprise if he were to prevail. Should run his race though.

Coko Beach
Very likeable type. He always looked a big handicap winner waiting to happen, and he’s confirmed this with wins in The Thyestes, and when last seen, The Punchestown National Trial. I thought that win at Punchestown was his best yet, and he also has a decent win in The Troytown to his name. There are certainly negatives. He had particular stamina doubts going into last years race, and he didn’t quite see it out, while he’s higher in the weights this time around. There’s a chance he might be ridden with a bit more restraint this year, and I’d fully expect him to be competitive at the very least, and also be in contention heading for home, without quite getting there. Looks nailed on to give backers a good run for their money though, and a horse I’ve got a lot of time for. Should go very well, with Harry Cobden a great booking.

Longhouse Poet
Ran very well in this last year, eventually weakening late on into sixth. Comes here off the back of another decent season, and will run off the same mark. Has a few pounds less on his back too. As well as his run in this last year, he also took The Thyestes, and he’s certainly confirmed that a big field handicap like this is right up his street. Would maybe want it a tad softer, but everything looks in place for another big run. Won in good fashion at Down Royal last time out, with a couple of nice sorts behind him, and every chance of making the frame again, off the back of an already profitable season.

Gaillard Du Mesnil
It’s easy to say he was handed The National Hunt Chase last month, when the leader fell, but regardless of the ifs and buts of that, he showed there were no stamina doubts about him, and his run in last years Irish National confirmed that he will handle the hustle and bustle of this. A lot has been said about The Fav being ahead of his mark, but I reckon that Gaillard has a few pound up his cuff too. Sound enough jumper, and although he started the season off as a Novice, he has tons of experience, and another from the all conquering Willie Mullins yard. Looks primed for a big run, and I can’t keep him out the places, he’s a big player.

Darasso
Really versatile type, who’s got a few good runs in the locker, but this wouldn’t have looked the obvious target at the start of the season. Just missed out in The Galway Plate, before his running on third in The Kerry National hinted that he might just be capable of something like this. Since that run at Listowel, his season has looked like being geared towards a big prize in the spring, and although the Irish Equivalent looked a more realistic option, it’s worth noting that they’re coming here instead. Stamina certainly not assured, and can only be taken on trust, but he’s worth a shot at this, and he should outrun his odds, but I think a midfield finish looks likely.

Le Milos
Confirmed the promise of his 21/22 season, by starting off with an impressive win at Bangor, before landing The Coral Trophy at Newbury. Kept under wraps after that, to protect his mark for this. That plan looked to work a treat as he was running away with it in The Premier Chase at Kelso, before getting collared late home. He’s clearly a very good horse, as the Newbury win showed, but that run at Kelso just put me off a little. Loads to recommend him on, but that was a hard race for him at Kelso, and I just wonder if it will have left a mark.

Escaria Ten
Started last season looking an ideal Aintree type, but he’s really failed to deliver, with a tendency not to finish his races off. His best effort in recent times being his close second to Any Second Now in last years Bobbyjo. He was prominent in this last year, before emptying out, eventually finishing midfield. Of equal concern is that he apparently finished exhausted that day, requiring attention afterwards. Bit of a surprise then, that they’re back for more, but trainer has stated that he’ll be ridden “cold” this year. There’s still a couple of runs in there that do offer hope, and he’s a massive old price, given that they’re putting him through it again. However, his run at Cheltenham was desperate, and despite it being foolish to write off a horse with his profile, he’s quite hard to enthuse over this year.

The Big Breakaway
Inconsistent type, but on his day, more than capable of something like this. Two good runs in staying chases this year, not least in The Welsh National, and that offered plenty of hope for Aintree. His run in The Ultima was disappointing though, and that raises some concerns. Has creeped up the weights without winning, and he hasn’t got his head in front since November 2020. No doubt the ability is there, but he doesn’t always show it, and he’s got enough negatives for me to swerve him.

Cape Gentleman
At first glance one of the easier ones to put a line through. Probably known better as a flat campaigner, and definitely not one you’d look to for a marathon test like this. He has qualified though, finishing fourth at Leopardstown when last seen, and though well held that day, it may just have been mission accomplished, with this in mind. He made mistakes that day, and came down at at the last in The Kerry National, but crucially, he was running on, suggesting the step up in trip might be worth trying. There’s loads of these with more obvious credentials, but despite the rather obvious (and many) negatives, I can see him running well at big odds

Roi Mage
Bought with this in mind after a long career in France, and he’s done fairly well for connections, winning The Bluegrass Chase at Down Royal, en route to Aintree, where he was the last horse to miss the cut. Smashing run behind Minella Indo and Stattler at Tramore, before a heavy fall at Cheltenham when travelling nicely. Suffered an horrendous cut that day, but they’ve nursed him back to full fitness, and only went down narrowly to Longhouse Poet in this years Bluegrass Chase. Meets that rival on better terms, and though it could be said that he’s not got much more improvement in him, I think he can run a big race here, and a very interesting outsider, who should have no ground concerns.

Diol Ker
Bit of a mixed bag in these staying chases, with a win to his name in The Leinster National last year, coupled with an excellent second in The Paddy Power, to go with lesser efforts at Fairyhouse and Punchestown. Very hard to weigh up his chances on those efforts, as you just don’t know what you’re going to get. By no means a forlorn hope. I’d always mark up those that run well in The Paddy Power, as it doesn’t quite get the recognition it deserves, and always one of the best handicaps of the season, but maybe as high in the weights as he’d want to be now, and percentage call might be to look elsewhere.

A Wave Of The Sea
Better known as a performer over shorter distances, and a few decent runs over three miles at Limerick, though perhaps not enough for me to spend too much time on him here. Admirable enough around two miles, but not seen enough from him this season anyway, and though him taking his place here, does raise the eyebrows, I just can’t see it. Be a proper long term plot this one if it pays off.

Minella Trump
Given connections, it seems reasonable to assume that he’s been kept fresh for this after two wins at Perth last year got him to a suitable mark. Only one run since then, and that was when seen trailing home last in a hurdle race at Bangor. I’d be happy enough to draw a line through that, as it was clearly a prep run, but still, this is a million miles from what he’s faced before. Not out of the question that there’s more to come from him, but still hard to see him figure all the same.

Vanillier
Former Albert Bartlett winner, who looked to have a bright future, but the wheels came off last season, and he was a huge disappointment. His run in The National Hunt Chase suggested he wouldn’t be up to something like this, when he couldn’t land a blow in a less than stellar renewal. As a result though, he’s now on a handy looking mark, and loads to like about his last run in The Bobbyjo, showing good attitude when going down narrowly in second. Despite falling at Leopardstown, I wouldn’t be unduly concerned about his jumping, and merits serious respect from this yard, with him looking very well treated.

Velvet Elvis
Looked as if he was going to be perfect for these staying chases with his effort in last years Irish National, but came up well short in The Troytown and Tim Duggan this term. Much better at Fairyhouse in February, before no shame in getting brushed aside from Any Second Now in The Webster Cup, running well for a long way. He has to really step up on all known form, but I think he has the profile of a horse who could just surprise here, and I did quite like the way he travelled last time.

Ain’t That A Shame
Yard won this two years ago, and they arrive here off the back of a decent Cheltenham. He’s done everything asked of him this year, winning well last time, and arguably even better runs in defeat, in both The Munster National, and The Paddy Power Chase. As mentioned earlier, I always pay attention to that Leopardstown race, and it can only enhance his claims here. Top yard, in good form, will handle the big field, no ground concerns, and quite simply, loads to like.

Corach Rambler
Market leader, and deservedly so. Dual winner of The Ultima, and given great rides on both occasions. Perhaps not ideal that Derek Fox faced a race against time to be fit for this, as he could be key to his chances, given how he’s likely to be placed during the race. Providing he doesn’t meet too much trouble in running, Fox has been here and done it before with One For Arthur, and I wouldn’t dwell on that worry too much. Of slightly more concern was maybe just (very slight) signs of temperament when hitting the front at Cheltenham, but that’s probably very harsh on him, and you can’t crab a horse with that record. No stamina concerns either, as his run at Newbury confirmed, and I just can’t knock him, or his place as market leader. Every chance

Enjoy D’Allen
Looked to be a real dark one for Aintree last year, even before being bought by JP McManus, but it all went badly wrong, when he unseated at the first. Has had a quiet enough preparation this time around, and his best run was when he threatened briefly in The Paddy Power. Didn’t impress in The Bobbyjo though, and has a lot of questions to answer now. Looking for positives?. Well, he wasn’t disgraced at Fairyhouse last year, and this may just have been the sole plan for the season, but you have to be realistic with him, and he just hasn’t shown enough in his career overall to consider him here.

Mr Incredible
Very lightly raced candidate, but that’s offset by being one of the Willie Mullins posse. Came right into this with his third in The Kim Muir, but I thought he didn’t quite finish the race off the way I’d have wanted. That’s possibly looking for a negative that isn’t really there though, and there’s no questioning he’s got the ability. Mullins appears to have ironed out his quirks, with him having refused to race in the past. Supporters probably won’t settle until he’s jumped off, and I suppose there’s always the chance that the cauldron of Aintree might unsettle him, but I’m sure Mullins will have considered that. He’ll probably need a cute ride, and that’s not out of the question, but I’m going to look elsewhere. Could easily prove me wrong though, and his run in The Classic Chase also offers some hope.

Mister Coffey
Really consistent type, who rarely runs a bad race, having places at the last two Cheltenham Festival to his name. Of more concern is that his only recent poor run, was round this course in The Topham. That’s enough to worry me about him, and there has to be a chance that he just didn’t take to it. Runs for top yard, Nicky Hendersons, but even that offers some cause for concern, with Henderson having such a poor record in this and other “Nationals”. Biggest positive for me would be the forecast showers, but not enough of a positive for me to be swayed by him. Providing the rain comes, I can see him finishing midfield at best.

Cloudy Glen
Winner of the 2021 Coral Trophy, and that’s the highlight of his career to date. On his day, this looks the logical race for him, but he’s not the most reliable. He followed up that big win at Newbury, with a poor showing at Wetherby, and he had a fair time off after that. I thought his run at Haydock in February was highly encouraging, but that split two considerably lesser efforts, not least when last seen in The Ultima. Recent form suggests Saturday will not be the day, but from this yard, take a brave man to totally write him off, given his overall profile. Coming down the weights very nicely, and he’s at the very least, an interesting outsider.

Hill Sixteen
Sandy Thomson continues to improve with every passing season, and this horse the perfect example of what he can do. Going nowhere really at previous yard, and the change of scenery has worked wonders. Last run was admittedly desperate, but had excuses having lost a shoe. Whether that can excuse such a poor run is questionable, but it’s certainly worth noting. Acceptable enough run in this years Becher, finishing well, to go close with his second in the 2021 Renewal. Also ran well for a long way in last years Scottish National, when relatively unfancied, off the back of an excellent second in The Premier Chase. Happy then to draw a line through that Kelso run, and the forecast rain could be key. I’m surprised he’s still as big a price, and should go very well.

Gabby’s Cross
Not the highest profile De Bromhead inmate, and despite not getting his head in front since winning The Galway Blazers last summer (very competitive handicap), he’s ran in a good few of the high profile staying chases, running respectably on each occasion. I liked his run in The Leinster National in particular, where he looked like winning, and may have done so, but for a couple of errors. I’d expect De Bromhead to eke out that extra bit of improvement for this, and at around 50’s, very definitely one of the best outsiders.

Recite A Prayer
Jumped ok round here in December, though didn’t ever look like really making a big impact. No impact either in The Paddy Power, and although third in The Cork National, he was well held. I’d be inclined to put a line through him on those efforts, Mullins horse or not, but his Kerry National run does actually offer some hope. His overall profile leaves him with something to find, but that Listowel run suggested he might just outrun his big odds, and he appears to have been kept deliberately fresh for this, from a trainer who obviously knows what he’s doing.

Eva’s Oskar
One of the lower profile contenders, though he did win very well at Cheltenham in December. His efforts since, although respectable, in The Master Chase and Eider, heavily suggested that this is beyond him. Any showers would be against him, and he’s one that I just struggle to give that much of a chance to.

Our Power
Has had a great time of this year, winning The Bateaux Gold Cup at Ascot, and The Coral Trophy at Kempton. This followed on from a great end to the 21/22, when running very well in The Ultima, and that same race at Kempton. He’s looking very well treated now as a result, and there’s no concerns with his jumping, and stamina shouldn’t be an issue. I’d have no concerns with Sam Twiston Davies in the saddle, and a big run looks assured with no worries about the weather.

Dunboyne
Came into this season with a fairly low profile, and certainly not one of the more promising Elliot horses. He didn’t improve much as the season started, and proper blotted his copybook, refusing to jump off at Punchestown. Things finally fell into place next time though, getting his head in front, and he’s since had two excellent efforts in The Thyestes, and The Kim Muir. That run in particular at Gowran, suggested he can get involved here, and he looks the ideal type for Elliot to win a couple of big staying chases over the next couple of seasons. Perhaps pushing it to say he’ll win here, but I’d expect him to go well.

Francky Du Berlais
Knows his way around here, having completed in both The Topham, and The Becher. His run in last years Topham was his best effort, finishing fourth. He followed that Topham run with another couple of wins, not least in The Summer Plate, and though he’s slightly disappointed since, a lot of that can be put down to a hike in the weights for that Market Rasen win. Back down to a more realistic mark, not far off his last winning one, and ran an interesting race in The Cross Country. Trainer knows how to win round here, and though I can understand his huge price, he might just be prominent for a long way.

Fortescue
Ran well to an extent in this last year, but didn’t really look at any time like getting involved, and was beaten when he exited the race. His fourth in this years Becher was a bit more like it, but overall, he doesn’t look like being one of the likelier ones. A midfield finish not out of the question, but I just can’t see him being there at the business end.

Back On The Lash
Best known for his exploits round The Cross Country Course at Cheltenham, but when faced with Graded Company, miles off it round there at the festival last month. His win in The Cross Country Handicap in January was much better, and again showed that when conditions are in his favour, he can actually impress. Nice to see him sneaking in here, and he can surely go well for a while off of this mark, but any rain would probably be a big negative.

Born By The Sea
Has ran very well at the last two Galway Festivals, winning the 2021 Galway Blazer, before finishing fifth in this seasons renewal. Other than that though, there is very little to get excited about since. Bizarrely, I can still make a slight case for him, his run in the 2021 Kerry National, hinting that he could maybe handle the step up in trip, while his chances would probably improve if the rain stayed away. In reality though, he needs an awful lot to fall into place for him, and it just makes sense on all known evidence to be cautious, and his price probably reflects his chances.

Conclusion

It looked like being a weak enough renewal for the last couple of months, but I’d say it’s turned out stronger than last year, and certainly stronger than two years back. I’d say there’s significantly less this time around that I was comfortable putting a line through.

I’d just favour Galvin, who’ll love the ground, is worthy of the weight, and should be better here than Cheltenham, having had an interrupted prep. Delta Work got the better of him at Cheltenham, and he should be bang there again. I always like to poke holes in the favourites chance, but I just can’t with Corach Rambler, while I really do think that Ain’t That A Shame is pretty solid too.

There’s stacks of outsiders in there with a chance, and I’m confident (or maybe hopeful) that the ground won’t be a hindrance to Roi Mage.

Impossible to ignore the Mullins runner, and I change my mind over preference for Capodanno, or Gailard Du Mesnil every five minutes.

Any Second Now is bound to run well, but he’s been hammered by handicapper, and that’s a concern.

1. Galvin
2. Ain’t That A Shame
3. Roi Mage
4. Corach Rambler
5. Delta Work
6. Capodanno

My Selection
From a personal viewpoint, my betting on the race has went well. I took the 33’s Delta Work last year, as that looked plain wrong, and the plan was to lay some of it off, with a view to getting a free race. That’s what I’ve done, and laid him 11’s last night. Delighted to have a good few quid left on him.

Still can’t believe that I got 33’s Galvin, and having been betting him and rabbiting on about him for six years now, it would mean a lot. Similarily, I’ve been rabbiting on about Sandy Thomson for even longer, and again, would mean a lot if he won. When I put him up a few months ago as being a mad old price, I didn’t think I’d get it, but it held, and happy with 100’s.

My dark horse all along has been Roi Mage, and I feel he’ll be sink or swim, either exiting early, or bang there at the end.

I’m also with Darasso, but he’s hard to be too enthusiastic about, for all he’s a lot better than he gets credit for. I’ll probably cover Any Second Now and Escaria Ten, as if they won, I’d be kicking myself if I didn’t have a bean on, but can’t be adding sentimental selections to my list of bets.

Happy to have a free race then, which is half the battle. Good luck everyone

Darasso 250’s
Delta Work 33’s (Laid 11’s)
Galvin 33’s EW
Hill Sixteen 100’s NRNB
Roi Mage 150’s EW
Roi Mage 66’s EW 5pls NRNB