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You can almost guarantee it CNC, way above the average cut off point.
Elliot’s plan could be an issue, but he should be ok.
I think we’ll be looking at the late sixties mark this year.
I was quite sweet on Missed Approach in the Becher, but wasn’t overly convinced by his jumping. There are excusee to be made, considering the ground he had to make up early on, but I’d have preferred to have seen better.
Oh I see – He will keep as many horses as he can in the race and hence less drop outs than usual. Got it.
My four ANTE EW bets:
NOBLE ENDEAVOUR 50/1 B365
GIVE MY A COPPER 66/1 B365Just added two more EW today:
MONBERG NOTORIOUS 80/1 B365
UP FOR REVIEW 25/1 NRNB (SKY BET)GOOD LUCK ALL. Be interesting to see if BDM runs
I like the look of Calett Mad, staying on in the Kelso National and the Warwick Classic.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.I backed five, yes five, after the weights were announced yesterday;
Mall Dini 33s, Minella Rocco 40s, Lake View Lad 40s, Traffic Fluide 40s, Alpha des Obeaux 40s
My bets for this race are
NOBLE ENDEAVOUR 50/1
MINELLA ROCCO 40/1
BALLYOPTIC 33/1
UP FOR REVIEW 33/1As i have been a big critic of Willie Mullins keeping his best horses apart(Faugheen and Annie Power) I can’t really criticise Elliott for doing the opposite. It does mean that injury permitting the weights won’t go up by more than six pounds.
When the weights came out I first looked for my local horses. If One for Arthur carries less than 11 stone then he could become the first dual winner since Red Rum. I’m very happy with Lake View Lad’s weight as well but I couldn’t put the mockers on him by backing it.
The two horses who jumped out at the weights were Tea For Two who finished third in a King George just over a year ago and Step Back. It’s difficult to describe a “Whitbread” winner as unexposed but he’s only had eight runs under rules. And you know that a Bradstock horse will jump these fences.
Early days though.
– Step Back
– The Last Samuri
– Abolitionist
Fairly simple shortlist for me currently, maybe add Vintage Clouds if he gets in.
Seeing reports that Auvergnat won’t go as connections are not happy with his allotted weight.
I’m not having a good run with my shortlists at present…
Of all the Elliott runners, the two I’d be most surprised to see run, would be two horses who I always give a good word to, Blow By Blow, and The Storyteller.
I wanted to keep it to the four Antepost, but I have to add Blow By Blow here at 140’s, just in case. It would be hard to take if I missed him.
One horse of Elliot’s who looks an absolute cert to run is Outlander. He’s still high enough in the weights, but he hasn’t half dropped a bit in the last year and a half, without looking “gone”, and I think supporters could get a proper run for their money at a big old price.
Allysson Monterg out, but still in most firms lists, in the off chance anyone was considering him.
Important dates for the National
First scratching 26th February
Second scratching 19th March
Five day confirmations 1st April & that’s no joke
Final declaration 4th April at 10am
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.
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