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Potato I backed EE at 7-1 for Welsh National so no way do I think he is a bad horse. I just do not believe this is the year for him in this particular race.
CNC even if it came up soft or heavy I think Native River is the better horse anyway.
I would agree with that Mike
It’s a shame this thread has been dominated by an overrated boat
Frodon for me idled once Terrefort got tired, that jump at the last didn’t look one of a tired horse to me and he went again when EE came to his quarters. Probably a high 160s performance, decent but no GC winner, for all the horse is a likeable sort.
Only hosses I can see coming close to PP in a normal ground GC is the unexposed group hopefully running next week in the Irish GC – Kemboy, Bellshill and Al Boum Photo.
Last Spring Presenting Percy Beat Elegant Escape 14 lengths therefor it is obvious that presenting percy will again beat him this year.
Simple common sense they tell me.
Last Spring terrefort beat Elegant Escape by 12.75 lengths.
What I dont understand is why did Elegant Escape beat Terrefort 50 lengths at sandown this season off level weights and then we beat him 3 lengths giving him weight yesterday.
Something is wrong because if 1 novice is better than another novice in the novice season then they have to be better in the open season. Must be right cos all the presenting percy groupies are saying it so.
This is going to be awkward if this logic isnt correct as the presenting percy groupies are banking on it.
MY TEAM IS WINNING THE GOLD CUP
IN ELEGANT ESCAPE WE TRUST
What I dont understand is why did Elegant Escape beat Terrefort 50 lengths at sandown this season off level weights and then we beat him 3 lengths giving him weight yesterday.
Terrefort had an injury during the race at Sandown. You really think 50Ls is true form LOL?
That was Terrefort’s comeback run yesterday.
Poor example used Tayto.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!It’s as poor an example as presenting percy will beat elegant escape in the gold cup because he beat him in a novice race on a different track and over a different trip 12 months ago。
It’s as poor an example as presenting percy will beat elegant escape in the gold cup because he beat him in a novice race on a different track and over a different trip 12 months ago。
No, it’s nothing similar.
You have tried to use an example of a horse reversing form vs another that had an injury.
What relevance does this hold?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!The gold cup market has changed quite a lot over the last week.
Positives
PRESENTING PERCY-Winning a hurdles race meant he was popular and moved from maybe a high of 5.7 last week to 4.3 to back currently.
ELEGANT ESCAPE – After showing he has a bigger heart than Viking Flagship he has been backed. trading at around 40.0 through the week now 26.0 to back.
FRODON – Was generally between 40 and 50 for gold cup now into 26.0 following his win on Saturday.MAIN DRIFTERS obviously quite a few drifted due to the strength of presenting percy but some more markedly than others.
KEMBOY appears quite weak at present on the exchanges and if he doesn’t win the Irish gc his price will.surely lengthen significantly.
ROAD TO RESPECT was around 14.0 but keeps drifting and is now at 25.0. Certainly isnt popular and again a bad run in the Irish gc and he could be double those odds.
THISTLECRACK also quite weak, 21.0 to back but 90.0 being asked for. Good luck to whomever is asking for 90.0 but the horse has been weak lately.
MIGHT BITE the most alarming drifter of all. Currently 28.0 to back and people trying to get on at 60.0. Looks ominous for might bite fans and has to be the most worrying drifter.
SIZING JOHN after being around 20.0 for a while has jumped out to 30.0 in the last week. Would be a surprise if this makes it but an even bigger surprise if it ran well.
TERREFORT out to 70.0 now and looks likely to go Ryan air.
BELLSHILL out to 29.0 now after having been trading slightly shorter. Another one whom with a bad run in the Irish gold cup and his price could double.
AL BOUM PHOTO 19.0, CLAN DES OBEAUX 11.0 have looked solid throughout the week and the prices have barely changed.
Native River has also looked fairly solid though the money for presenting percy means he is perhaps slightly bigger for now.
Will be interesting to see how much the market changes over the next week.
Not wanting to take sides here but I do agree with Potato that the Presenting Percy supporters are lacking some hard facts to support their case for his favouritism. As I’ve said Presenting Percy is clearly a good horse. He was very impressive in the RSA last year but winning a Hurdle race against pretty weak opponents is hardly what I would call rock solid form. He’s yet to win a Chase in open company and I would argue has yet to be tested against top class opposition. The most impressive element of his hurdles was probably winning first time out but for PP to be so fervently supported is quite a leap of faith. At present his support is based judgement alone. I’m not saying their judgement is wrong but the support for PP is certainly bold given the lack of experience and form. My position on PP is I simply haven’t seen enough of him to form a hard view as to his Gold Cup prospects.
It’s been a season littered with young up and comers coming out the woodwork in the blue riband division. I’d be surprised if Al Boum Photo doesn’t continue that trend this Sunday. The form of his Tramore win when conceding weight is looking as solid as anything else on offer from this season. I’ll have a nibble before he gets to the business end of the market by winning at Foxrock.
NATIVE RIVER seems to have attracted very little comment on here this year. Yet his chase record is outstanding never out of first 3 in 16 starts , same at Cheltenham including win and place in GC. I believe he will give his running on good or softer and will show the over hyped pretenders a clean pair of heels
The Tizzards are in a very strong position. I think Native River will be there or thereabouts.
I think the main concern would be will this 3rd.gold cup be one trip to the well too many. Often just running in one gold cup can be enough for a horse to never regain his top form.
Definitely goes to the race with a chance and the form in the book but could be vulnerable in the closing stages to younger fresher legs.Most certainly a player regardless and this horse will ensure that no matter what the ground is this race will be an extreme test of stamina.
If you dont have stamina dont turn up for this race imo because your limitations will be exposed.
I never seem to get Native River right Racingorchid but his record is great, no denying that, but he wants proper soft ground to be in with a hope. Definitely the best of Colin Tizzards. Interesting to see EE cut into 14/1 by PP for the National but you can still get 25/1 for this. I’d send him National were he mine but enough about him.
Bellshill will emerge this weekend as the Mullins main charge I think.
Elegant Escape seems a really tough type and I’d expect him to run in the National as well as the Gold Cup, all things being equal. I’ve backed him already for Aintree but will go in again at 25/1
I don’t think people betting presenting Percy are taking much of a leap of faith at all. He won a weaker renewal of that hurdle race last year on route to winning theb RSA. EE has hardly knocked the form of last years RSA where PP spanked him. I think it’s safe to say it was a fairly good renewal of the RSA and PP was a convincing winner. I also do not believe it’s a leap of faith to assume PP will improve this season. He’s also won at the festival twice which is a massive positive. His performance in that hurdle race can quite easily be underestimated but you cannot deny that it was his first run of the season and was a stronger renewal when he won it last season and he still won the RSA that season so to say oh he’s only won an average hurdle race this season and that means he it’s not good enough for a gold cup horse. Well he done it won an RSA off the back of it and this season he’s done it first time up in a hotter renewal. Who’s to say he can’t step up when going over fences like he did last season? I think he’s a worthy favourite especially as the main protagonists having not blown anyone away this season.
And all that is from someone who hasn’t had a penny on PP at the minute
I dont think anybody has said PP couldn’t win the gold cup?
It is however indisputable that PP is horrifically priced.
If he was 20/1 plus then he would perhaps be worth a speculative punt on the hope that he has improved enough to win a gold cup but at the moment he has done nothing to justify being favourite for the gold cup.In his next race he may be outstanding and perhaps then it may be possible to justify him being favourite for the gold cup or at least make a stronger case to his chances.
He only improved 2lb on his hurdles race from last season. If he has only improved 2lb on his chase form as well then he isnt good enough to place in the gold cup.
He may improve lots more he may not. Certainly doesn’t justify him being 3/1 at this stage.
It’s not impossible he could win though.
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