Thyestes 2017

Love this race, but has been a bit of a nightmare for me over the years, and the rot was only stopped last year by My Murphy, who did me proud on the day at decent odds. He looks like taking his chance again, though life will be more difficult with the rise in the weights, though in his favour is the fact that this is probably his season goal.

List of entries………..

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=667483&r_date=2017-01-26&big_race=Y&raceTabs=#raceTabs=lc_

It looks a very difficult race to take a strong view on, even a week away, with the usual mix of JP & Gigginstown contenders in there, but I’ll have a look at some that stick out. A lot of the odds on offer do look on the skinny side though, so not a race to go mad on at this stage.

Roi Des Francs – Set to shoulder top weight, and though I’m not convinced he’s the best horse in the race, he did look very good earlier last year, and holds a Gold Cup entry. He’ll win a decent pot sooner rather than later I reckon, but I’m not sure it’ll be here off of top weight. 25’s

Champagne West – There’s no doubting this horse has always had the ability, but his achilles heel has always been his jumping. After a pleasing comeback in last seasons Caspian Caviar, the old errors resurfaced, and his season fizzled out. Cue a switch to Henry De Bromhead, a trainer with a fine reputation for getting them jumping, and he got Champagne his first win for a while, with a much smoother round last time at Tramore. That was a decent enough race, and very much a step in the right direction. I’m not entirely convinced he’ll end up here, but if he does indeed retain all his previous ability, then his mark is very workable. 14’s

Wounded Warrior – Another horse who has lost his way a bit, and his comeback run last time was poor. He looked destined for the top a couple of years back, but has just a few questions to answer now, and I think he’s had his fair share of problems. He does have a Gold Cup entry though, and considering the ammunition Giggs have at their disposal, that may be telling. Very risky, but that’s reflected in his price. 25’s

Pleasant Company – A horse I followed closely last year, and his win at The Punchestown Festival last year, not only finished my season off on a high, but also suggested a lot more to come, it was an impressive win. I have very high hopes for him this year, and I’m convinced there’s a big race in him. He’s close to my #1 for this, and but for him being taken out of a few races already this season, then I’d probably be getting stuck in. 14’s

Gallant Oscar – Very solid horse, but I’ll take the chance that Aintree is the long term aim. He could though, land this very easily, and the books aren’t taking any chances. 14’s

Measureofmydreams – Looked a very nice prospect last year, but his season went off the rails a bit towards the back end of the season. Chance if he can recapture his earlier form from last season, and he did finish 3rd in The 4 Miler at The Festival, but others from Giggs do look more appealing. 12’s

A Toi Phil – Thought he looked a real live RSA Candidate earlier in the season, but his last couple of runs have shed some doubt on that. It may just be though, certainly off his current mark, that handicaps are the way forward for him, and no surprise to see connections considering this route. Possibilities for sure, and one of the more overpriced runners. 16’s

Ucello Conti – Ran well in this last year, and but for having taken the “scenic route”, he might have fared even better. His season is surely based around Aintree, but with him very close to not getting in there, then this is a big enough pot in it’s own right. It would be easy to overlook him here, but he looks very well handicapped, and off the same mark as last year, I can easily see him placing, which would surely be enough to get him in The National line up. Strong each way fancy. 16’s

Rogue Angel – Very much like Ucello Conti, connections have stated that Aintree is the aim this year, though he’s even lower than the Elliot runner, and they’ve got their work cut out for this Irish National winner. Ran a decent enough race in The Paddy Power, and a sudden return to form here, would see him land a nice pot, and qualify for Aintree on a nice mark at the same time. A real dark horse, and a very nice price. 33’s

Thunder and Roses – Another former Irish National winner, but this trip looks short enough for him these days. Can still throw in the occasional big run, but he’s had many disappointments since his moment of glory at Fairyhouse 2 years ago. Not the most obvious, but worth a second look if Katie Walsh gets the ride. 25’s

Jetstream Jack – He’s been a bit of a “talking horse” in the past, and though he’s become dependable enough, he’s never really delivered that big prize he promised. Another one of those novices who’s form has been patchy, but as a consequence, does come here on a lenient looking mark, and I think he’s got some room to manoeuvre. Just the type I reckon to pop up in this, and though I was hoping for a better price, he’s definitely considered. 14’s

Prince of Scars – One of the first names to jump off the page, and with good reason. He had a great time of it in the staying hurdle division last year, and has had a decent start over fences, running well behind strong opposition, on ground nowhere near soft enough for him. He really does appear to prefer it soft, and should the rains come, then he’s chucked in off his current chase mark. The weather forecast doesn’t look too encouraging for him, so very much one to look at on the day. 12’s

Bonny Kate – Admirable mare who’s only been hit with a 3 lb rise for her excellent run in The Troytown. The 14’s with Sportsbook surely won’t last.

Rogue Trader – Kept the best of company last year, and wasn’t completely disgraced either, but it’s his 5th in The Troytown that really brings him into this. Was the subject of sustained support in the lead up to that race, and gave supporters a run for their money. Firms are taking no chances this time, and he’s second favourite this time around. 10’s

The Crafty Butcher – Ahead of Rogue Trader in the betting, and also ahead of him in The Troytown, where he only found Empire of Dirt too good, and no shame in that. One of the lesser known lights from the Willie Mullins yard, but he could easily be a lot higher profile after this, and difficult to argue with his status as clear favourite here. He’s in form, top yard, perfect trip, and on a nice mark, he looks likely to take a hand. 13-2

Very very difficult to take a strong view on this then, even at this stage, with the race just a week away. I’m normally comfortable enough to oppose the Ante-Post fav’s in these kind of races, but that’s not the case with The Crafty Butcher, who looks solid. Prince of Scars & Pleasant Company were the first 2 to jump off the page, but with Prince of Scars being very ground dependant, and Pleasant Company failing to take up a few options lately, then they make no appeal Ante-Post. I’ll address them should they make it on the day.

A Toi Phil & Champagne West tick a lot of boxes, but I just have the feeling that they’ll take in other races, while as much as Ucello Conti appeals greatly, I just worry that he’s becoming a “bridesmaid horse”.

It would make sense to wait as late as possible with this race, considering the potential strength of the favourite, and the added puzzle of the many “lurkers” in there who haven’t been mentioned, but I do like a try in this race, despite my questionable record, and I may take a chance on these two…….

Jetstream Jack 14’s win
Rogue Angel 33’s ew

I just think Jetstream has more to offer than he’s shown so far, and I’d be particularly happy to see Davie Russell up. Rogue Angel is surely due, having ran well last time, and though he needs to step up on that again to book his ticket for Aintree, it’s certainly not beyond him, and he’s one of the few who looks way overpriced.

As said, I should sit and wait, but will probably give these 2 a go in the next 24 hours.

GL