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https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/38/newmarket/2017-10-07/681407
I think this has been Usherette’s target for the second half of the season before she runs at the Breeders Cup, with a nice prep run win under her belt last time out. If she’s at her best, she’s the best horse in this race and a C&D winner to boot who’s not fussy on the ground – the current 9.00 available would therefore be massive.
I’m also about to press the button on that 9.00 Usherette – will have to fight you for it Deg-dawg!
That does seem a crazy price. Usherette was unlucky not to beat Qemah at Royal Ascot when given a hopeless task from the position. Nothing has happened since then to make me think anything has changed. Roly Poly beat them both in France, but Qemah didn’t get the splits from the back and Usherette wasn’t suited by front-running (no harm in trying it though). Usherette proved her wellbeing last time. On my tissue, she’s favourite.
Persuasive is the other obvious contender but this will be the fastest ground she has ever run on – not likely to be a positive for a daughter of Dark Angel.
Qemah EW at 7s will be my bet, tad unlucky in Rothschild, back on a straight course, fingers crossed she at least picks up the place part of bet
I was tempted by Persuasive at the early prices but decided to hang fire. Now that she is 11/4 and shorter I don’t see any value.
Roly Poly has trained on better than I felt she would this year. I had earmarked her, and stable companion Brave Anna as two fillies who might leave their best form in 2016 but Roly Poly has had a good season. I still prefer others here at the odds though.
I don’t see it with Usherette myself. She has disappointed in the past and not done much at all this year. She finally got a win last time but that was an odds-on scramble in a Listed race where she prevailed by a short head. This is much tougher and I can readily pass her by here with her last two Racing Post ratings being 10 and 14 lbs below her best mark of 119.
Like N Walton I picked Qemah here but went win only at 7/1. She came from too far back behind Hydrangea last time and went down by three short heads behind Roly Poly in the Rothschild. Pretty consistent and a two time Group 1 winner, I feel she can win this at decent odds.
Probably one of very few bets for me this weekend, I expect a good show. I don’t fancy Usherette at all at much the same odds.
Qemah 7/1 was my idea of value.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think Usherette has been unlucky not to have notched up a couple of high profile wins already this season, no doubt the result of poor riding by Barzalona. He got her into trouble in the Prix D’Ispahan and the Duke of Cambridgeshire Stakes, when I think she should have won both. Then she was tried as a front-runner in the Rothschild, which definitely wouldn’t have suited. Her run last time out was no doubt a prep run, and it wouldn’t have bothered me if she lost. She will improve from it, and if she’s in the same kind of form as in the Prix D’Ispahan and the Duke of Cambridgeshire, she’ll be hard to beat.
There’s a few in here that just seem to get well punted on every single time they run (none less so than Qemah) and pretty much all of them cost their supporters in the long term so it looks like a proper dodgy race to me.
To my eyes, Persuasive’s run last time out in Ireland is the best form on offer. She’s not coming into this off the end of a busy summer campaign and should benefit from a the fair amount of pace that looks on offer. She holds plenty of these on form and represents connections riding the crest of a wave.
So Persuasive for me. 11/4 seems more than fair.
I think USHERETTE is overpriced at 8/1 with
Paddy Power, and I’m in agreement with Degaussed and LS3 that her CV should have
had at least one and perhaps 2 other Group races added to it. I’ll spare Mr Barzalona’s
blushes by saying she didn’t get the rub of the green in either the Duke of Cambridgeshire
or the Prix D’Ispahan. She looked well in herself last time, admittedly it wasn’t a race
up to this standard, and although it was quite tight at the end I think she won it a
shade cosily. Her win in he Dahlia Stakes here last year shows she handles the track
here well and the conditions should suit. Qemah and Persuasive have strong claims, but
Gosden’s number 2 Nathra looks a bit overlooked to me at 16/1. However, I’ll stick with
Usherette, I think she’s worth a crack
At the prices I’d be against my ante-post Guineas (non-runner) horse – Roly Poly. Has anything come to light about her poor showing in the Matron? Market move either way should tell us if The Lads truly think she’s over a hard summer. Seemed to get the run of the race in both Group 1 wins and may be a touch flattered. Then again there doesn’t look much pace in this race either!…
Which is one reason why I’ve backed Nathra @ 24/1. Ran as well as ever when 3/4 length 2nd to subsequent Group 1 Foret winner Aclaim last time out, with Home Of The Brave a length away in 3rd. Raced fairly prominently that day. Can be held up, did best those held up when 3 lengths behind Aljazzi penultimate start (mile). Botti filly has the better chance in this but imo not as much as the betting suggests. Hope they’ll choose to race towards the front today – with stable companion Persuasive a hold up filly. Nathra has 7f speed which may stand her in good stead if the pace isn’t a sound one. Don’t want it drying up too much, but Good will be fine. Ditto for Persuasive who I’ve also backed @ 3/1. Rightfully favourite. Less than a length behind Hydrangea and Winter in the Matron. Finishing best of all after getting behind. Taken a bit of a chance on the pace, but hasn’t had much racing this year, stable flying, arguably the best recent form and is the one filly still improving.
Usherette probably unlucky not to beat Qemah at Royal Ascot, but unimpressive when down to listed grade last time out and not as consistent as her old rival. Qemah another fast finisher in the Matron. Trouble is Benoist needs to settle her so has to use hold up tactics. Unlikely to be in the best position, but wasn’t in the Duke Of Cambridge either. Has plenty of speed if finding the gaps. More than a saver but will only be my third best result @ 7/1. Aljazzi was only 3/4 length behind Qemah in the Duke Of Cambridge. Three lengths victory in the Atalanta gives her a good chance too. I can’t split her and Qemah here. Just not as good a price as the French filly.
Most of the others have place chances but can’t quite see them winning.
Value Is EverythingHad a small REV FC in this.
Roly Poly could have the race run to suit here on this quicker ground compared to the Matron Stakes. Possibly the FAV prefers softer ground and the French fillies have had a fair crack at the 3 YO’s with no real excuses.
Quite like the improver also Aljazzi also.
33/1 & 31/1 FC
At the time of my bet, Mtoto:
30 points @ 24/1 Nathra (min 14/1)
27 points @ 7/1 Qemah (min 7/1)
61 points @ 11/4 Persuasive (min 11/4)Now it would be (same minimums)
23 points @ 16/1 Nathra
27 points @ 7/1 Qemah
73 points @ 3/1 PersuasiveValue Is EverythingAnother couple for you Mtoto:
2:25 Ascot
23 points each way @ 12/1 Danehill Kodiac (min 9/1)3:00 Ascot
38 points each way @ 9/2 (B365) Danzeno (min 4/1)Value Is EverythingAll bar 2 of them have contested G1s with just Qemah and Roly Poly successful (1 win each)
But Aljazzi hasn’t run in a G1 since her Guineas last year and is now rated a stone higher than she was then. She’s run here 3 time and won once. Neither Persuasive nor Qemah have run here and I think experience of the the unusual bumps and furrows can be an advantage.
Aljazzi for me
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