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Stilvi I’m no expert race reader but it doesn’t need a expert to see that was cantering at that trip looking like he could go around again easily..time will tell tho
It is not about being an expert race reader. Yes, as I said his class enabled him to win the Troytown on the bridle. There is a huge difference between looking like doing something and actually doing it. I would say that given the pace he showed at the shorter trip the chances of him sustaining that effort for another mile and a half are pretty much zero. Add in that he is clearly a hold up horse and the Aintree fences might not suit a horse who has been on the deck then the National couldn’t be a more crazy option. I haven’t read the quote Yeats is referring to about running him over hurdles but when you could be winning Graded races why would you want to do that?
It is not about being an expert race reader. Yes, as I said his class enabled him to win the Troytown on the bridle. There is a huge difference between looking like doing something and actually doing it. I would say that given the pace he showed at the shorter trip the chances of him sustaining that effort for another mile and a half are pretty much zero. Add in that he is clearly a hold up horse and the Aintree fences might not suit a horse who has been on the deck then the National couldn’t be a more crazy option. I haven’t read the quote Yeats is referring to about running him over hurdles but when you could be winning Graded races why would you want to do that?
I would agree with that bit about running in graded races stilvi as as top class horses are always well weighted in the National, doubt he’ll get much less for running in hurdles.
I more or less agree with Stilvi. I said on the Troytown thread he was on my shortlist of three (didn’t back him) but I had reservations about trip and ground, considering his best performance to be when winning at Cheltenham over two and half miles on decent ground.
He put those fears to bed, winning pretty much on the bridle, but in no way for me looking like a horse wanting further. He has so many more gears than your typical 3m handicap chaser. In Cheltenham he was nearly brought down yet still won with bags in hand, the interference he met with would have ended the hopes of the vast majority of runners yet he ran out a facile winner.
If he were mine I’d now be thinking Lexus, Hennessy then either Ryanair or Gold Cup. If he gets found out in the Irish Grade 1’s so be it, there’s plenty of big handicaps in the spring over a variety of trips.
THM, do you think it is a case of connections just not realising how good this horse actually is?
The only problem with the small field condition races would be a possible lack of pace but surely Gigginstown have enough horses to ensure a true pace? I would also be worried about bottoming him on soft winter ground. I think his class gets him through it but ideally you would want him to get to Cheltenham a relatively fresh horse.
He is good enough for the Gold Cup but that race would be that much tougher to win than a Ryanair and you would be stretching his stamina. Obviously, Gigginstown also have Valseur Lido who I assume is being aimed at the Gold Cup?
Ideally Empire Of Dirt wins the Ryanair and then they can see where he stands with the Gold Cup horses at the Punchestown Festival.
Spot on Stilvi,
imo Empire Of Dirt’s Troytown was all about speed at the trip rather than stamina. If anything travelled through the race as if he’d be equally effective at shorter. If we’re talking Aintree then Topham rather than Grand National. As he wasn’t stopping on Sunday there’s a chance he’ll stay 3m2f if conditions aren’t too testing, but not many horses effective at 2m4f are as effective at 4m4f and Empire Of Dirt is yet to show stamina. Sudden improvement in two performances have come on good and good-yeilding and doubt he’d be as effective on soft/heavy. I agree, Ryanair should be the main target. 25/1 for the Grand National is crazy and wouldn’t be that price had O’Leary not won it last year with an unconsidered horse.Value Is EverythingI’ve always thought Ryanair was the obvious target as well, but I’m hoping (and praying) that it’s The Gold Cup.
Michael O’Leary interviewed today on ATR.
At one point he was talking about the horse’s weight rise taking him out of handicaps, the next second he was talking about the Irish National. If you took him at face value you would think he was pretty clueless. Can only hope it is something of a smokescreen.
Michael O’Leary interviewed today on ATR.
At one point he was talking about the horse’s weight rise taking him out of handicaps, the next second he was talking about the Irish National. If you took him at face value you would think he was pretty clueless. Can only hope it is something of a smokescreen.
Can sort of see what O’Leary means, Stilvi.
Empire Of Dirt is probably too good for the vast majority of handicaps and is good enough to race in Grade 1’s. However, there are still one or two handicaps the best chasers can go for. Desert Orchid won the Irish Grand National yet was not “a handicapper”. Denman, Many Clouds won other handicaps yet are not “handicappers”.Value Is EverythingMichael O’Leary interviewed today on ATR.
At one point he was talking about the horse’s weight rise taking him out of handicaps, the next second he was talking about the Irish National. If you took him at face value you would think he was pretty clueless. Can only hope it is something of a smokescreen.
Can sort of see what O’Leary means, Stilvi.
Empire Of Dirt is probably too good for the vast majority of handicaps and is good enough to race in Grade 1’s. However, there are still one or two handicaps the best chasers can go for. Desert Orchid won the Irish Grand National yet was not “a handicapper”. Denman, Many Clouds won other handicaps yet are not “handicappers”.So why not aim him at some Grade 1’s then? He was talking as if there were no options.
I always bet 2 or 3 selections for The Grand National around Xmas and have a few pounds in the last few days
Blaklion 40-1
O’Faolains Boy 66-1
Measureofmydreams 40-1The more I watch yesterdays Hennessey the more I think Native River 28’s is a Grand National Horse,I know connections aren’t keen on the idea but Colin Tizzard has been around long enough to know certain horses just look like National types and this chestnuts one of them.
Smashing horse Gord, and I think he’d love it round there, but you’re right about the connections being hesitant. Despite the many horses they’ve had, the owners have never had a runner in the race, and rarely enter any of their horses over The National Fences. Might be nothing in it, but worth bearing in mind.
I think Tizzard would have to be very persuasive.
If a Grand National win sees Tizzard crowned Champion trainer, I think he can be very persuasive Vtc.
I wouldn’t take Gord’s 28/1, but worth a speculitive 43/1 on the machine imo.
Value Is EverythingThat’s a fair point Ginger, and I wouldn’t be betting against it. Good luck with him, but I’ll leave him alone for now. My whole season now revolved around him winning The Gold Cup, so I best not have any Aintree distractions lol, his intended presence at Chepstow has already stopped me betting in The Welsh National……………I hope he romps that for you and Gord, and set me up nicely for March
After that brutal run at Carlisle, it was another nice performance from Three Faces West today, and though he’ll go up again for that, I’m hoping he heads here in April.
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