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I’d be gutted if I missed him Ginger, love the horse, and had to get involved. Good luck today with yours
Ps, liked the 999-1 comment haha
Going through the runners last night for the umpteenth time and was horrified to see how high SdR /and Double Shuffle scored on my little system…neither of which I’ve backed….
I’ve added a couple yesterday, Drop Out Joe 66’s to 80’s ew, as he’s a horse I’ve put up here several times in the past, and it would be too painful to miss out. Owners cautious comments that he’s not fully prepped for this following the setback, sealed the deal…………….I’m sure they’d not be running if that were the case. A tip in itself, and thanks to GM for that info.
Drop Out Joe has a brilliant record fresh and therefore obviously doesn’t take much getting fit.
Good luck to you both but I really can’t see this horse having the remotest chance of a top six finish! Aside from the fitness issue it’s only probable, not certain, that the horse retains the same ability. His best mark, at Uttoxeter, was under a 3lb claimer. That and his second best mark (15 Badger) were both achieved in below average Listed Grade races. In his two Grade 3 Chases which happen to be at the two furthest distances tackled (Scottish GN & Whitbread) he has not stayed and performed well below form. This is a better Grade 3 than either, over further and on as stiff a track overall as Sandown. Granted he goes well fresh and his jumping has improved but even then he’s made significant errors/jumped left in half his twelve Chases!
AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL 4 miles 2 furlongs 74 yards
11. 152 Drop Out Joe 9/411570-1 Charlie Longsdon (5/10) 9 11-01 *** Tom O’Brien 40/1
On the face of it Drop Out Joe is inconsistent, but it’s a completely different story when fresh. Outstanding record first time out/after a long break – albeit wins coming from June to November. So fact he’s not run since June is a massive positive. Trainer Charlie Longsdon almost pulled off a big win at Cheltenham with a similar sort, Pendra. Drop Out Joe’s first run for 2½ months when winning 19 runner Summer Cup at Uttoxetter (3m2f good) off 144. Tracked pace towards outer, jumped well although slightly left at times, led 4 out, found plenty run-in. Runner-up now 12 lbs better off for just 2 lengths, however Ballynagour looks on the downgrade whilst Drop Out Joe progressing; that said an 8 lbs rise for a 2 lengths win does looks steep. Some form on soft ground but sounder surface will help him stay. Disappointing both starts beyond 3m2f. Penultimate effort in Bet365 at Sandown (3m5f good) well beaten before stamina became an issue. In 2015 Scottish National (4m good) 36 lengths 9th of 11 finishers to Wayward Prince. Unusually racing mid-division amongst horses, possibly best with more room. Headway to go 6th, mistakes 6 and 5 out on inner, faded. Probability is he’s now too high in the weights and won’t stay, but at close to three figure prices is worth a speculative interest.You don’t need to think Drop out Joe has a good chance GM, as you can see above, my idea of its fair chance is 40/1, just 2.5% chance. Although I agree he probably won’t stay, he was beaten before stamina became an issue in the Bet365, and ridden the wrong way (held up) in the Scottish National.
Value Is EverythingGiven that the stats get broken every year nowadays the two that are left are 7 year old winners and horses that haven’t had a proper campaign throughout the season, so I can’t ignore DoJ.
Added Shantou Flyer win only at 80-1. Right that’s definitely it now as I’ve backed half the field (Well 5 of them).
Almost forgot my bet on The Last Samuri! Good thing I checked what I’d bet ante-post. Others are One For Arthur, Tenor Nivernais and Le Mercurey.
Good luck everyone and whatever happens, let’s hope the horses all come back safe.
Congratulations to everyone who had more faith than I did.
My first National winner since Ballabriggs and I was really pessimistic about him going into the race as well.
All horses back safe and sound
Well done to everyone who backed One For Arthur..wish I had
I can watch the race now, so pleased for Lucinda Russell and connections. ..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Well done to Joe and everyone who backed Arthur.
I think we’ll hear later they went too fast early; first and second the two well weighted hold up horses.Value Is EverythingWell done Joe and everyone else on him to win national i was happy he won at Warwick last time but felt he not win at Aintree.Well done to all.
Congratulations Joe, and any other Arthur backers, what a race he ran.
It would have been nice to see horse and rider coming into the winners
enclosure, it kind of lost a little there, but hats off to Aintree for
putting the horses first and getting them cooled down right after the race,
they deserve applause for thatTake 40s One For Arthur for the National for it will soon be gone. Tongue Tie has made a real difference and he can only go on from here
I did thanks to you pal! Brilliant foresight Joe cheers…
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