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The first thing to say is it looks a decidedly below par renewal. Phil Smith talks about improving the standard but for whatever reason it hasn’t worked this year.
I backed One For Arthur a few weeks ago but confidence has subsided ever since. I can see him struggling to get into the race and stamina isn’t a given.
Much happier with Highland Lodge. Hopefully, he will avoid any possible trouble on the front end.
Of the others despite the weight rise The Last Samuri probably looks the most solid option and Perfect Candidate should bowl along but essentially looks to have too much weight. Conversely, Saphir Du Rheu has a reasonable weight but his attitude and jumping could well be too fragile for a National. Vieux Lion Rouge looks pretty short given that he isn’t a certain stayer and I wouldn’t get carried away with any form at Haydock. Is Cause Of Causes better than his previous attempt? Surely you wouldn’t have a sighter in a Grand National? I think Definitely Red lacks substance for this sort of task and Pleasant Company had a very hard race last time and doesn’t shape to me as if he wants a severe test of stamina. Rogue Angel is probably the best of Gigginstown but is clearly difficult to predict and he didn’t appear to have much of a cut at these fences in the Becher. Just A Par seems to like Newbury and Sandown but is another with a mind of his own and you have to hope that the drying ground is going to produce significant improvement on his previous effort.
The best bet at short odds is More Of That not to finish. He was the chief beneficiary of that slow pace in the Irish Gold Cup. Even if he jumps, which in itself is a doubt, I think he barely stays three miles. Given his fragility they are not going persevere once he is beaten.
One For Arthur’s stamina isn’t a given?
He’s the best stayer in the race in my opinion. Flew home in the Beecher.
Gagged up when stepped up in trip at Warwick.
I’m supremely confident that he will pick them off one by one in the last mile and half.
The first thing to say is it looks a decidedly below par renewal. Phil Smith talks about improving the standard but for whatever reason it hasn’t worked this year.
I backed One For Arthur a few weeks ago but confidence has subsided ever since. I can see him struggling to get into the race and stamina isn’t a given.
Much happier with Highland Lodge. Hopefully, he will avoid any possible trouble on the front end.
Of the others despite the weight rise The Last Samuri probably looks the most solid option and Perfect Candidate should bowl along but essentially looks to have too much weight. Conversely, Saphir Du Rheu has a reasonable weight but his attitude and jumping could well be too fragile for a National. Vieux Lion Rouge looks pretty short given that he isn’t a certain stayer and I wouldn’t get carried away with any form at Haydock. Is Cause Of Causes better than his previous attempt? Surely you wouldn’t have a sighter in a Grand National? I think Definitely Red lacks substance for this sort of task and Pleasant Company had a very hard race last time and doesn’t shape to me as if he wants a severe test of stamina. Rogue Angel is probably the best of Gigginstown but is clearly difficult to predict and he didn’t appear to have much of a cut at these fences in the Becher. Just A Par seems to like Newbury and Sandown but is another with a mind of his own and you have to hope that the drying ground is going to produce significant improvement on his previous effort.
The best bet at short odds is More Of That not to finish. He was the chief beneficiary of that slow pace in the Irish Gold Cup. Even if he jumps, which in itself is a doubt, I think he barely stays three miles. Given his fragility they are not going persevere once he is beaten.
One For Arthur’s stamina isn’t a given?
He’s the best stayer in the race in my opinion. Flew home in the Beecher.
Gagged up when stepped up in trip at Warwick.
I’m supremely confident that he will pick them off one by one in the last mile and half.
I have had another look at the Becher and it is a little more alarming than I first thought.
One For Arthur is never really travelling at any stage of the race. He balloons many of the fences. Safe enough but on quicker ground a similar style of jumping is going to put him even further back. As for flying home I am not sure what race you are watching? He is fifth and in contention on the run to last and he finishes fifth. He is neck and neck with Ucello Conti and doesn’t go past.
The Warwick race was on a totally different surface and if anything the runner up was pulling him back on the run in.
I’ll be sticking my pin in Saphir Du Rheu and Ballynagour this year. Maybe one more nearer the race. Thought SDR ran good race in the GC and I thought Ballynagour was travelling well in last years race.
The more I look at this race the more I am convinced that Vicente has been completely laid out for this since he won the Scottish National.
Has run four times this season and fell first time out after blowing up!
Then tried to do the impossible and beat Native River getting only four pounds and ground softer than he wants!
Then had a trot round in the Skybet at Doncaster behind Ziga Boy which many on here fancied for this race!
And finally never threatened in February at Haydock behind VLR.
My interpretation of all this is the horse has been completely targetted at this race and then to cap it all Trevor Hemmings buys who loves the National!!
Agree with you Raymo he one of my 5bets in race
LORD WINDENMERE 50/1 Out of form last time but race before was more like it from him decent weight as well
THE YOUNG MASTER 33/1 Ante post was 1st bet for race ran ok at Cheltenham when you think that race was pipe opener for him
MEASUREFORMYDREAMS 50/1
Same race as The Young Master while gone to Noel Meade not seen who ride him but ran well in 4miler last year at festival that decent form to.
MORE OF THAT 25/1 Classy horse but not in best form over fences than hurdles but last 2races over fences been much better and getting better he is
VICENTE 33/1 as Raymo say earlier has form in national winner of Scottish race last year.
The first thing to say is it looks a decidedly below par renewal. Phil Smith talks about improving the standard but for whatever reason it hasn’t worked this year.
I backed One For Arthur a few weeks ago but confidence has subsided ever since. I can see him struggling to get into the race and stamina isn’t a given.
Much happier with Highland Lodge. Hopefully, he will avoid any possible trouble on the front end.
Of the others despite the weight rise The Last Samuri probably looks the most solid option and Perfect Candidate should bowl along but essentially looks to have too much weight. Conversely, Saphir Du Rheu has a reasonable weight but his attitude and jumping could well be too fragile for a National. Vieux Lion Rouge looks pretty short given that he isn’t a certain stayer and I wouldn’t get carried away with any form at Haydock. Is Cause Of Causes better than his previous attempt? Surely you wouldn’t have a sighter in a Grand National? I think Definitely Red lacks substance for this sort of task and Pleasant Company had a very hard race last time and doesn’t shape to me as if he wants a severe test of stamina. Rogue Angel is probably the best of Gigginstown but is clearly difficult to predict and he didn’t appear to have much of a cut at these fences in the Becher. Just A Par seems to like Newbury and Sandown but is another with a mind of his own and you have to hope that the drying ground is going to produce significant improvement on his previous effort.
The best bet at short odds is More Of That not to finish. He was the chief beneficiary of that slow pace in the Irish Gold Cup. Even if he jumps, which in itself is a doubt, I think he barely stays three miles. Given his fragility they are not going persevere once he is beaten.
One For Arthur’s stamina isn’t a given?
He’s the best stayer in the race in my opinion. Flew home in the Beecher.
Gagged up when stepped up in trip at Warwick.
I’m supremely confident that he will pick them off one by one in the last mile and half.
I have had another look at the Becher and it is a little more alarming than I first thought.
One For Arthur is never really travelling at any stage of the race. He balloons many of the fences. Safe enough but on quicker ground a similar style of jumping is going to put him even further back. As for flying home I am not sure what race you are watching? He is fifth and in contention on the run to last and he finishes fifth. He is neck and neck with Ucello Conti and doesn’t go past.
The Warwick race was on a totally different surface and if anything the runner up was pulling him back on the run in.
The runner up to One For Arthur at Warwick was amongst the 7 mentioned in my latest post.
My latest workings out shows these 7 could win
Wonderful Charm
Blaklion
Cause Of Causes
Houblon Des Obeaux
Raz De Maree
Thunder And Roses
GOODTOKNOW
The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.The more I look at this race the more I am convinced that Vicente has been completely laid out for this since he won the Scottish National.
Has run four times this season and fell first time out after blowing up!
Then tried to do the impossible and beat Native River getting only four pounds and ground softer than he wants!
Then had a trot round in the Skybet at Doncaster behind Ziga Boy which many on here fancied for this race!
And finally never threatened in February at Haydock behind VLR.
My interpretation of all this is the horse has been completely targetted at this race and then to cap it all Trevor Hemmings buys who loves the National!!
I’d like horses who blow up
as you put it. Hope not with a stick of dynamite 
NO, SERIOUSLY You mean have a good exercise and expanded their lungs so they can usually run better next time. I usually look for this type of comment as I take it to be a positive. If you’re right then win or lose Vicente run could be massive
The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.When I came to study the race thought I was going to tip Vicente. Only 1 lb more than Ayr and comes to peak this time of year. However, having watched a replay of every run from the Scottish National onwards…
Vicente is one of the worst jumpers in the field.
Value Is EverythingI think it’d be terrible if Wonderful Charm won. You shouldn’t be allowed to send a top class horse to beat the hunter chasers and then back up to win the Grand National. I think it’s rather unlikely he’ll stay anyway.
I think it’d be terrible if Wonderful Charm won. You shouldn’t be allowed to send a top class horse to beat the hunter chasers and then back up to win the Grand National. I think it’s rather unlikely he’ll stay anyway.
Why would it be so terrible? He clearly isn’t top class otherwise he would have beaten what is an increasingly moderate hunter chase division. That division is becoming an increasing joke with virtually all the decent pointers being sold on as 4-5yo’s and the veterans races taking away plenty who would no doubt have made the switch from handicap chases.
The bookies have done their job in deterring me from anything you could argue a reasonable chance for.
Even so I’ve plenty of reasons to go against all the leading lights.Vieux Lion Rouge – Fair credentials and wouldn’t mind if he won but had my bit of excitement with him last year and won’t bother.
Definitly Red – have major doubt about him completing. Likely strong finisher if he does.
More Of That – The bbv horse. Wish we`d seen him away from Cheltenham a bit more. Too short now anyway.
Blaklion – Has never appealed to me but respect his chance. Is he scopey enough ?
Cause of Causes – The 2015 run is not easily forgiven. Stable form was good with 3 winners at the meeting, nice weight. Carberry asleep ? Well he had him on the heels of Alvarado and Monbeg Dude two out and lost twenty lengths on that pair. Tranquil Sea came from even farther back. Not for me.
One for Arthur– Big old boat who looks likely to be outpaced.
Pleasant Company -May have some upside but Mullins not to be feared here.
The Last Samuri. Hard to crab but scuppered by Smith
Ucello Conti -Interesting that Jacob claims he prefers better ground. No evidence of them targetting it with him. Munir could have sent him to one of his British trainers if that had been the case. Very scruffy jumping has held him back at Aintree.
Saphir du Rheu -Good revival of late but faced with stiffer fences and Newbury found him out again. Not as short as I thought likely. Perhaps odds reflect disappointments with other leading fancies Tubby has sent here previously.
The Young Master– Like him but a fall here and unseat in the Hennessy the previous season suggest this is not the race for him.
VicenteScottish National credentials do not seem to bring the right mix of qualities for this stamina aside.
Rogue AngelNot sure Fairyhouse winners have ever dome much here.Showed a glimmer of aptitude for this in the Becher but not enough. Not keen on Cooper.
Highland Lodge -Like his jumping.Painful memory of him looking a likely winner at Chepstow and then failing to make the frame.
None of the above will be considered withe the possible exceptions of Saphir du Rheu and Blaklion
Everything else seems to be 33/1 plus where it gets far easier to manage expectationsJust chose my two for the Grand National:
THE LAST SAMURI – WIN
Rogue Angel EWGood luck to everyone having a bet and just let all the horses and jockeys come home safe.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...It seems poor Cocktails At Dawn remains on course to be rewarded with this test for his non completions and tailed off efforts. Hope he comes back ok and de Bonville doesn’t have to have a night at the Fazakerley.
This horse underlines Henderson’s general failure to establish seasoned chasers and the entry makes him look a bit of a nana.Competitive as always and a reasonable quality of field even if a tad below some recent years. One would think six plus horses would be battling it out in the last fifty yards but that rarely happens. There is often a decisive winner. The race has a habit of sorting them out, fancied or not! I have endeavoured to do likewise, better to have a strong opinion and be very right or very wrong than to sit on the fence and back too many. I’ll be looking for six places each way and the sixth has been known to finish quite well back. I’ve listed horses in order of my base (before pros and cons, mainly the latter!) weight adjusted predicted performance rating (RPR source) so here goes (projected going: Good (on G-S side of)):
Lord Windermere 186 sure doesn’t retain remotely this ability, current form diabolical, slight concerns re stamina and jumping anyway.
Vieux Lion Rouge 182 only issue is will he stay. I’m 50/50 and would rather take a chance he will than on a lower rated horse with jumping or other concerns. WIN
Vicente 182 only concern is has his own way of jumping (soft mouth), Brian Hughes is great but his debut on horse who has jumped best for STD so no.
O’Faolains Boy 180 has had another wind op but does not appear to retain anything like this ability, also stamina concerns.
Tenor Nivernais 179 won’t like going, won’t stay, slight jumping worry.
Definitly Red 179 his jumping is generally improving but I don’t trust it holding up here.
Saphir Du Rheu 177 solid concerns re jumping and stamina.
Ballynagour 177 hit and miss, more miss lately.Jumping here. Stamina concerns. Hold up horse so will need luck in running.
Regal Encore 176 jumping, often not travel, may get too far behind and seems prone to meeting trouble in running/bad luck/errors.
Double Shuffle 176 strong concern re jumping, worry re stamina (and how will he take preliminaries?)
Blaklion 175 possibly 177 but is on the small side for course (like Holywell last year who soon fell!)
One For Arthur 175 possibly 177 but will be held up (or more likely somewhat outpaced) so will need luck in running and would probably prefer softer going.
Bishops Road 175 strong concern re jumping, another re current form, and slight worry re going.
Cocktails At Dawn 175 huge concern re jumping, class, stamina and current form.
Thunder And Roses 175 concern re jumping, Brian Cooper has chosen to ride Mouse’s other runner and has had a hard season.
Le Mercurey 174 looks to need some cut and doubt will stay.
More Of That 173 slight concern re jumping, not at all convinced will stand up to demands of race physically.
Wounded Warrior 172 slight concern re jumping, much bigger one re form over last year (not seem to be same horse following several month absence).
Ucello Conti 172 has improved in all respects since last year when plugged on, going will be fine. Can survive the burden of Daryl Jacob (who has at least won the race)! E/W
La Vaticane 172 lacks the class, won’t stay, course record not encouraging.
Cause Of Causes 171 lacks the class (best form in class 2), lacks fluency early, will get too far behind in this class, and is always 20 below best in race after his Cheltenham target.
The Last Samuri 170 possibly 172, rock solid (but something better weighted will deny him) E/W
Measureofmydreams 170 solid concern re jumping and not sure Mr Meade can get him to the same level as Mr Mullins.
Pendra 170 concern re jumping, don’t think will stay and is best fresh not in the race after a target.
Goodtoknow170 concern re jumping (tends to jump right), might not fully stay, will not be near best on the likely going in this class.
Shantou Flyer 169 minor worry re jumping but none otherwise and prepared to take my pot shot on this one finishing in the six at a huge price E/W
Saint Are 169 fundamentally a poor jumper and hard to get away with it again to place.
Just A Par 167 two poor runs over course, two ways of running, and style of being held up/outpaced isn’t ideal – may run no race.
Raz De Maree 167 chief concern is he will be soon under pressure to go the pace on the going, also worry re jumping as is a small horse.
Rogue Angel 167 (choice of Cooper), complete but will probably not be good enough to get in the six.
Drop Out Joe 166 slight concerns re jumping and class but major worry will not stay.
Pleasant Company 166 complete but probably not good enough to get in first six.
Roi Des Francs 165 slight jumping worry, bigger concerns re going and stamina in this class.
The Young Master 165 strong jumping concern, butchered the course in Becher and prone to error on park courses anyway. would be course specialist SWC’s finest ride to finish 10th!
Stellar Notion 165 slight jumping concern but absolutely will not stay (especially as is keen).
Highland Lodge 164 has it all to do on my figures anyway but definitely, as an enthusiastic prominent racer, will not stay.
Houblon Des Obeaux 163 not what was, concerned re jumping, won’t like the going.
Perfect Candidate 161 flattered by Exeter rating, Fergal is the one trainer about whom I’m slightly concerned re stableform and am worried horse could perform well below best in a race of this value in grade 3.
Wonderful Charm 156 worried re class now (outpaced in Cheltenham Foxhunters!) and not convinced will stay anyway.
Gas Line Boy 156 will be below best in this class despite the stiffer test of stamina and his jumping is such that even Robbie Dunne (see last year’s race) may not retain the partnership here!(Of the potential ‘reserves’ Bless The Wings 171 is worth a mention but, as a 12yo, I’m concerned he won’t have pace enough to get in the six).
I feel The Last Samuri at 16/1 is the outstanding value at this moment.
He seems more or less certain to run his race. He’s higher in the ratings now but that is readily offset by the fact that he’s facing some rotten value opposition with loads of question marks about them.
Vieux Lion Rouge is my biggest potential return, having backed him at 28/1. I have The Last Samuri at 20/1 and One For Arthur at 20/1.
It’s probably going to be too lively underfoot for One For Arthur now. On the upside, it doesn’t make it such a slog for The Last Samuri under his big weight and it means Vieux Lion Rouge has more chance of lasting home.
I can’t see Blaklion reversing form with Vieux Lion Rouge, he was clearly outstayed last time and he’s quite a small horse.
There’s tons I don’t fancy and who I feel are way too short.
Just for fun I am having a wee bet on Drop Out Joe, available at 66/1, as a dark horse. He seems to go best when fresh and at 9yo he has some more class than some of those in this race. How many guys named Joe might back this on Saturday? I could see him start shorter than double carpet twice. Paddy Power offer 6 places at 1/5 the odds but only go 50/1, however the extra two places are worth the concession on the odds, with 10/1 a place if he’s in the first six home.
Drop Out Joe 50/1 each-way 1/5th odds 1-2-3-4-5-6 with Paddy Power.
Steeplechasing, get yourself involved.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I feel The Last Samuri at 16/1 is the outstanding value at this moment.
He seems more or less certain to run his race. He’s higher in the ratings now but that is readily offset by the fact that he’s facing some rotten value opposition with loads of question marks about them.
Vieux Lion Rouge is my biggest potential return, having backed him at 28/1. I have The Last Samuri at 20/1 and One For Arthur at 20/1.
It’s probably going to be too lively underfoot for One For Arthur now. On the upside, it doesn’t make it such a slog for The Last Samuri under his big weight and it means Vieux Lion Rouge has more chance of lasting home.
I can’t see Blaklion reversing form with Vieux Lion Rouge, he was clearly outstayed last time and he’s quite a small horse.
There’s tons I don’t fancy and who I feel are way too short.
Just for fun I am having a wee bet on Drop Out Joe, available at 66/1, as a dark horse. He seems to go best when fresh and at 9yo he has some more class than some of those in this race. How many guys named Joe might back this on Saturday? I could see him start shorter than double carpet twice. Paddy Power offer 6 places at 1/5 the odds but only go 50/1, however the extra two places are worth the concession on the odds, with 10/1 a place if he’s in the first six home.
Drop Out Joe 50/1 each-way 1/5th odds 1-2-3-4-5-6 with Paddy Power.
Steeplechasing, get yourself involved.
I don’t think you could call any horse outstanding value at 16/1 in the National could you?!
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