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Happy with my three as we approach the final few days:
Vicente – small stake at 33s
The Last samurai – since about 3 hours after his run last year and a bit since.
One For Arthur – main bet since his win at Warwick.I like Lucinda Russell’s form as we approach the National. She has had 6 winners from her last 20 runners, dating back to 16th March.
Kim Bailey on the other hand is only 1/20 of late and although getting a few placed, has not found the back of the net with some relatively short priced runners.
Jonjo has had four winners in the last five days and is potentially peaking in time for Aintree but David Pipe is less impressive on 2/23 the past fortnight.
It must be of concern for Blaklion fans that Nigel Twiston-Davies was just 2/60 in March and 3.33% strike rate for the month of the Cheltenham Festival.
Paul Nicholls is potentially the form King as we approach the National. He sits 10/25 and a whopping 40% strike rate for the past fortnight.
Perhaps something for potential backers to consider over the next few days.
You and I are very keen on our “trainers in form”, Steve; with good reason. You make some excellent points.
With Twister it’s actually much worse than your 2 from 60 going back further. When I looked a few days ago he’d had 2 from 92 since Ballyandy won the Betfair! These things can change very quickly and will judge nearer the day, but at this stage doesn’t look good for Blaklion who’d otherwise be a definite bet for me. What makes it worse is when Blaklion was an excellent 2nd at Haydock Twister was in magnificent form, which could’ve been something to do with his improved display.
I remember last year going through trainer form on the day, rating Mouse Morris in the best form of all Grand National trainers… and then not acting on it!
Value Is EverythingIts that time of the year when ‘Family and Friends’ always turn to us who back horses all year and say ‘Whats going to win the National’?….I’ve looked at it from every angle and there’s a serious collateral form line that runs through a good half dozen horses including ‘Definitely Red’, ‘The last samurai’,’Vieux lion rouge’, ‘One for Arhur’, ‘Blaklion’ and Vicente..At the end of the day its all about the weight in this and at the weights Paul Nicholls horse recently purchased by Trevor Hemmings comes out on top for me,there are question marks about several of those mentions stamina but not this fellows,he’s a Scottish national winner with solid form through ‘Alvarado’ a horse placed twice in the Grand national itself.Very few of my relatives actually have betting accounts so the 25/1 might go before Saturday but I’ve told them to wait for the day and take the price.. 20/1 hopefully to 5 places with the high St firms.For me the hardest horse to evaluate for this race is ‘Cause for Causes’…He could be a good thing or a Cheltenham specialist,personally I hope he’s the latter as my number 1 horse is More of that but I do believe Vicente is the horse who ticks all the boxes.
Bishops road 66/1 looks over priced. He get the trip, his jumping is a concern but at 16.5/1 a place. I’m taking a punt and he’s my last selection:
Bishops road 66/1ew
More of that 20/1ew
Measureofmydreams 66/1ew
Ballynagour 66/1ewHoping one runs into a place. Good luck all
Darn it buckers; I’ve just noticed Maggio and his course form 12 months ago….may have to follow you with that one, especially as several of my fancies aren’t going to get a run. Think my bets were before nrnb VtC…..
Every Grand National winner now is either dead or retired
That’s not a stat or so, it’s just a comment every 10-year old could make. Many Clouds died this year, Rule The World was retired straight away and the three previous winners are just too old to race on.
If you go back to the very first page of this thread you will see that I am on Vincente and have been for a long long time ( A year almost) and I have added Double Shuffle at 50/1 Definitly Red at 14/1 and Perfect Candidate at 50/1 to my list!!
Another one I am quite interested in is Pleasant Company with Ruby up! but I haven’t bet that one yet!!
Trying to find some information regarding Carlingford Lough’s plans is proving impossible.
Always thought this race would be perfect for him. You would think a tilt at the Irish Gold Cup at Punchestown where he would be going for the three timer would be on the radar, but if he turned up for this he must have a major chance. His last run when only beaten 5 L by Sizing John looks a lot better than it did at the time.
Took the 28’s NRNB Carlingford Loch to win
Also Ladbrokes are NRNB now so took some 33’s CLI was on Ziga Boy too, and also Foxrock who’ll probably go for Irish National. Hmmph. Just leaves me with Vicente and Highland Lodge now.
Just put a bit on Pendra to replace Ziga Boy as my longer priced runner. All picks E/W. I have a terrible record with this race, have never picked the winner.
70 left in at the five-day stage.
La Vaticane last one guaranteed to get a run from 10’6
Bad news about Carlingford Botchy, and one of mine Ziga Boy is also out.
Thanks for that VTC, was worth a shot NRNB. One big danger out the way that one.
Wow, Maggio a non runner also, a bit surprised by that one
No worries Botchy, that NRNB saved your skin there………unfortunately I didn’t have that luxury on the exchanges with Ziga.
Good luck with him Green, I bet him last year at big odds to win serious amounts, but the weather did him. I’ve read a couple of features where his stamina is questioned, but on the better ground I think he’ll stay alright. I’ve no involvement with him this year, but I consider him a danger, good luck with him.
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