Welsh National 2016

I am currently on Milansbar at 33/1 and Vicente at 20/1 but I still have this stat in my head about horses carrying less than eleven stone win this more often than not!!

It could be one of those years though – There have been a few occasions in the last 20 years where the top weight had a higher rating that Native River and the bottom weights were rated 137 and 138.

Maybe the possibility of decent ground has resulted in fewer horses defecting from the top of the handicap but the bottom weight usually has an official rating in the high 120s, low 130s.

I thought about backing Viva Steve but he needs 11 horses to come out, he won first time out last season and regressed from there. Similar senario the year before. His price looks rather optimistic

I have had a fair bet on Unioniste 20/1 ew. I think this has been the plan since they know he doesn’t take to national fences.

His recent form has been terrible, however,i am willing to ignore both runs. PN needed to get his mark down for his race and he has done a fantastic job coming into the race at 145. Rocky Creek suddenly bounced back to form after two runs and i am hoping this is the same case for Unioniste.

His last winning mark was 149 which he won by 10 lengths. He has some good old form behind Conygree & Many Clouds and he also loves soft grounds.

I have have also backed Vyta Du Roc & Shotgun Paddy EW at 20’s

Good Luck All

Going is currently Good to Soft. A few showers forecast, plenty of sunshine between Christmas Day and racetime – a Heavy ground Welsh National seems unlikely.

This really does look a very classy race this year. The weather forecast looks like we’re headed for quick ground too.

Let’s start by getting rid of those below 40 in the entries, because they’re highly unlikely to get in. Let’s also get rid of those aged 9 or older, because they generally don’t win this race.

That leaves us with 22. Let’s use common sense to get rid of Knockanrawley and Gone Too Far, so down to 20. Arpege D’Alene is a novice, and has had 3 runs this year – 2 big negatives, so down to 19.

This is also a race that, for whatever reason, doesn’t suit GB-bred horses. Bye bye, Carole’s Destrier, Good To Know, Kingswell Theatre and Waldorf Salad. 15. 5 of those are currently not in the top 20.

Let’s get rid of all of those who didn’t finish in the top 4 LTO, which 9 of the last 11 winners had done. Bye bye, Viconte Du Noyer, Unioniste (also has completely the wrong profile for this race, but I can understand why some fancy him), Vyta Du Roc (wants it softer?), Baie Des Iles (can anybody realistically see a 5yo winning?), Berea Boru (only ran last week), Father Edward and Beg To Differ (all 4 wins on soft). 8 left.

Vicente did fall LTO, so that’s 7. Big unfair to remove him, but I think he’s being aimed at the Grand National. Racing Pulse was brought down, so it’s unfair to remove him. But then again, he needs soft ground to be at his best. 6 left.

So we’ve got Native River, Bishops Road, Vivaldi Collonges, Onenightinvienna, Viva Steve + Warrantor.

Bishops Road needs soft ground. Vivaldi Collonges isn’t good enough + looks a bit dodgy in big fields. Viva Steve will be outclassed and is pretty exposed.

Warrantor’s an interesting one, but he’s 35th on the list. He’s probably not going to get in.

So we’re left with Native River + Onenightinvienna.

Personally I think after Wetherby and the Hennessy, Native River’s gonna be shattered, and running off top weight isn’t going to help things. He’s clearly a very classy horse, but I think this is a step too far for him. Just my opinion, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win. Top weights are interesting. They either place or bomb out. It helps him a lot that this will be run on quickish ground.

Onenightinvienna is very interesting. He goes well on quick ground and he’s been crying out for this kind of trip. Running a novice chaser in the Grand National was never going to end well. He’s very unexposed, and this will actually only be the 2nd handicap chase he’s run in, which probably isn’t a mistake.

Father Edward…if he gets in, he’s interesting. I think we can ignore his last run – he’s just not as good going RH as LH. RH:P65332222. LH: 95321111. But I don’t think he’ll quite get in.

Viconte Du Noyer is another interesting one. Disregard his last run and he has a big shout. He goes on quick ground, which I think will be a huge advantage in this field in these conditions.

Milansbar’s profile also looks interesting. He’s completed 2 Nationals, and bar him being a 9yo, his profile’s pretty much perfect.

I don’t think Native River is a backable EW price as top weight given the doubts. Milansbar is a backable EW price though. Plus he missed out 2 years of racing, so technically he’s only 7….he also ticks plenty of other good pointers – he ran well in the Welsh Grand National Trial, he’s finished in the top 5 in a National and he’s a 2nd season chaser with very few handicap runs under his belt. Can’t leave him unbacked.

So…EW singles on Onenightinvienna (10s) and Milansbar (33s). Father Edward is also a must-back at 80 for a couple of quid.

I want to wait and see what’s running before I place my CFC/CTCs. Onenightinvienna, Native River, Milansbar and Viconte Du Noyer will most likely be the 4. I really hope Warrantor + Father Edward don’t get in, otherwise my forecasts/tricasts are going to cost too much.

Arpege D’Alene is a second season novice, Zarkava, and Le Beau Bai was having his fourth chase start when he won the race five years ago.

Onenightinvienna, VDR, Arpege D’Alene, Native River are mine for the forecasts.

Hence why he is a second season novice

MarkTT wrote:

Hence why he is a second season novice

Ah sorry, I meant that he’s a novice in his second season of chasing.