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Pleased to see Another Hero stand his ground, especially as Jonjo has taken 4 of his out of it at the latest declaration stage. Unfortunately STFD is still in there, which gives me a bit of a headache.
13 taken out today, including…..
Minella Rocco
Upswing
Holywell
Le Reve
The Last Samuri
AnnacottyI’m not doing a book on it this year, and was happy with Another Hero & Waldorf Salad, but I’ll almost certainly have to cover STFD.
Taken 12/1 Carole’s Destrier.
Amazed did as well as he did in Hennessey, career best chasing home Native River. From all we know about previous runs – and the way he finished at Newbury – suggests will be significantly better given a greater test of stamina… And off the same mark 148 here. Some don’t think he’s as effective on soft, but won an Ascot handicap by 8 lengths on the surface in February 2015, at the time probably a career best… And has won on heavy.Value Is EverythingWell if this isn’t the easiest race of the year to assess now it looks like Native River is running.He’s got top weight but that wont stop him,he’s actually rated 163 now but runs off 159 due to the early closure of this race.I know Caroles Destrier has a 4lb pull on their Hennessey run but thats not enough to reverse the form.Both horses trade at 10/1 jt Favs today and I have missed all the 25/1 as I didn’t expect connections to run him but this fast improving 6yo only has to turn up to win this as he fits perfectly in the ‘Carvills Hill’ and ‘Synchronised’ moukd of weight carrying achievers.TAPK has gone in hard with a £100 e/w bet at 10/1 with ‘BetFred’ who I cant believe haven’t slashed his odds because I’m on and another £100 win at 10’s on the machine..’Caroles Destrier’ would be my main danger if ‘Shutthefrontdoor’ 33/1 doesn’t turn up.
If Native River runs I’ll probably be happy to take 5/1, should start favourite if turning up. Idled and won with more in hand than winning distance suggests. Am certain he’ll be suited by the greater test of stamina. But what about the ground?
Has Colin Tizzard changed his mind or are you gambling on it being good or good-soft Gord? Couldn’t blame him because has some good form on soft and encouraging to see odds shorten to 10/1, but Chepstow is usually soft over Christmas.
Colin Tizzard on Native River: “He’s in the Welsh National, but that’s usually run in bottomless ground and I don’t think we’d want to do that to him”.
Value Is EverythingTizz. I think this will be in tomorrow’s RP (it’s online now in full version)
“We’re now very keen to go for the Welsh National,” said assistant trainer Joe Tizzard.
“He has gone up 8lb for winning the Hennessy and only has a 4lb penalty to carry at Chepstow. The chances are we’ll run him and we’re certainly aiming that way at the moment. The big weight wouldn’t be a problem to him.
“If the race looked like being run in a complete bog it might put us off, but it doesn’t look like being that way at the moment.”
Thanks for that Joe.
Taken the 10/1.
Thanks to you too Gord, for drawing my attention to Native River.
Value Is EverythingThanks for that Joe.
Taken the 10/1.Thanks to you too Gord, for drawing my attention to Native River.
I maybe the legendary King of foresight but I’m a friend of those who put the effort in Ginge..Joe,, when he can be bothered is a force to have in your armoury of reference too,sadly the ‘There will be blood’ quote was just a pin prick of effort from him regarding the ‘Caviar’ Gold cup..TAPK will be slaughtering the Bookies with his 2 big guns on Saturday but thats a weekly occurence…My ‘Beluga’ will arrive in time for a spot of lunch before the off as I’m quite partial to a few Bellinis and creme freche with a blob of Caviar and Smoked Scottish line caught salmon washed down with a Batard Montrachet served at 6.5 degrees..
Definitely no more bets in this for me, as I’ll be cheering Native River on. Really need a big run from him here, to keep my Hennessy Gold Cup/Cheltenham Gold Cup double alive.
A lot of rain on the way over the next 2 weeks guys, according to some forecasts, just for info.
I have cooled in Cogry for this, his jumping is just too suspect. I will definitely not have an ante-post punt in this now especially if the rain that Venture mentions, do materialise.
I did like how Gas Line Boy won last weekend and I think 22-1 is a big price.
A lot of rain on the way over the next 2 weeks guys, according to some forecasts, just for info.
What forecast?
Not according to BBC forecst Vtc. Only today/tonight.http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2653256
Value Is EverythingI have cooled in Cogry for this, his jumping is just too suspect. I will definitely not have an ante-post punt in this now especially if the rain that Venture mentions, do materialise.
I did like how Gas Line Boy won last weekend and I think 22-1 is a big price.
I don’t have the option buckers, I’ve already backed Cogry at 20/1, but I wouldn’t back
him now after another fall yesterday in the Unicoin Chase. They are going to have to work
out what the problem is, or do something like getting getting Yogi Breisner in, before they
could consider a go at the Welsh. I’m unsure if he will head there now, and if he does I’ll
be watching through my fingers
I read it a couple of places (can’t find it now) the last few days Ginger, and I heard it discussed on either ATR/RUK in the last 48 hours, but nothing concrete, and certainly not from an actual forecast like you put up. Hope I didn’t give the wrong impression that it was official.
For what it’s worth, I hope it’s way off the mark, and decent ground for Native River to run a big race
This is definitely a bet on the day race for me, too many imponderables at the moment…however the three on my radar at the moment are Unioniste, Spookydooky and Gas Line Boy…
Just a quickie!!
Do we think this years race is likely to be a better class renewal than it his been for a few years?
The reason I mention this is looking at previous years only three winners in the last twenty years have lumped eleven stone or more to win.
And by the looks of it there is not going to be many that get in with less than eleven stone.By the way VYTA DE ROC is huge at 25/1 !!
P.S Milborough has zero chance of getting in.
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