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After that performance from Thistlecrack today, my excitement for my Native River double has been dampened just a little, but he’ll still be the main focus of my attention today though, and I’ll be willing him home.
I’ll have another bet though, and with Midnight Prayer & Waldorf Salad both balloted out, I need another to go with Unioniste. I was a bit surprised to see Houblon Des Obeaux swerve Ascot last week, and I think he’s worth the risk at 22’s 6 places. He’s the type who usually seems to have one definite target per season, and although on a lofty enough mark, on his day, he’s good enough to defy it. Beg To Differ was on my early shortlist for this race at the start of the season, and the fact that he comes here at 33’s, tells it’s own story. I do think, his temperament aside, that he can figure in a race like this, and I’m going to have to give him another chance at those odds, again at the 6 places. He’s the outsider of the field, and if he drifts out, I’ll go in again at the bigger odds to win on the exchanges.
So despite cheering on Native River, it’ll be these guys for me….
Unioniste 20’s
Houblon Des Obeaux (6 places) 22’s
Beg To Differ (6 places) 33’sGL All
a horse that hasn’t been mentioned on this thread at all is Royale Knight, although perhaps the ground isn’t quite soft for him,
Nevertheless I think he’s a dour stayer that might be a decent each way bet at 25-1.
a horse that hasn’t been mentioned on this thread at all is Royale Knight, although perhaps the ground isn’t quite soft for him,
Nevertheless I think he’s a dour stayer that might be a decent each way bet at 25-1.
Beat me to it Judge, backed him earlier E/W 33 5 places
Best of luck everyone for today.
Well if this isn’t the easiest race of the year to assess now it looks like Native River is running.He’s got top weight but that wont stop him,he’s actually rated 163 now but runs off 159 due to the early closure of this race.I know Caroles Destrier has a 4lb pull on their Hennessey run but thats not enough to reverse the form.Both horses trade at 10/1 jt Favs today and I have missed all the 25/1 as I didn’t expect connections to run him but this fast improving 6yo only has to turn up to win this as he fits perfectly in the ‘Carvills Hill’ and ‘Synchronised’ moukd of weight carrying achievers.TAPK has gone in hard with a £100 e/w bet at 10/1 with ‘BetFred’ who I cant believe haven’t slashed his odds because I’m on and another £100 win at 10’s on the machine..’Caroles Destrier’ would be my main danger if ‘Shutthefrontdoor’ 33/1 doesn’t turn up.
Anyone waiting on a Thistlecrack,Native River 100/1 double need fear not..I’ve looked at this race from every angle and cant find a thing to touch this boy,,he should grab the rail early hit the first bend like a Greyhound and set a pace to suit himself,he gets the trip,he can carry weight,the grounds in his favour,Chepstows an easier course to jump than Cheltenham so lets Rock n roll….My Missus bets ‘Theatre Guide’ every time he runs so I’ll be cheering him home for 2nd place.
Theatre Guide had a desperately hard race last time and could pay for that today. If Native River is in the same heart as at Newbury, he wins, but if he reverts to needing pushed along, Dicky will be knackered before the end.
As you know I am already on Milansbar and Vicente and have now had a speculative couple of quid each way on Beg To Differ at 40/1 five places. I think it is very difficult to get a handle on this race this year due to the amount of “classy” horses in it!!
Good Luck everyone
Only the Grand National itself rivals this race in making more money for me year in year out. Come up with big priced winners most years. Done Native River @ 10/1 and Carole’s Destrier @ 12’s ante-post. Expected to find some at massive odds on the day, but only a couple make any sort of appeal… and one of those is around 16/1. Vicente fell in Hennessey and jumping is a worry, but this should be run slower – giving more time at his fences. Beaten when exiting at Newbury, but that was his reappearance and showed up well for a long way. Won Scottish National, goes on the ground and may not be fully exposed as an out and out stayer. Saved on him.
I see stablemate Unioniste is being backed, for me, become disappointing and poor recent win/run ratio. Not convinced it’s purely a distance problem.
Other saver is Royale Knight. Ran really well in Grand National one year, stays all day and goes on the ground. Bit disappointing of late, but trainer in really good form now. 33/1 worth a pound or three.
Kerry Lee is coming to form now too, but ground may not be soft enough for her pair – dual winner Mountainous and Bishops Road. Not convinced the latter is suited by big fields either.
Onenightinvienna was one I had a few quid on at a massive price at Aintree, has always looked one for a staying chase. However, odds here are that of one who’s already done it, not one that might do it. Only won a Micky Mouse two runner affair last time and doesn’t look especially well handicapped. Not beyond the realms but needs to find a lot of improvement for this test.
Firebird Flyer placed in this last year. Usually finds at least one too good and may do the same again if jumping stands the test. Yard in fairly good form and might be worth a place only bet.However, imo the front two stand head and shoulders above the rest. I’d be backing Native River today even at the 3/1… And Carole’s Destrier should be 5/1 if not shorter, not 8’s. Latter is proven over marathon trips and staying on really well at a trip I considered too short in the Hennessey. Better can be expected at this trip off the same mark. Stable not quite in the outstanding form it was then, but still pretty good. His conqueror, Native River imo won the Hennessey with more in hand than winning distances suggest. Idled on run-in before pulling out more when sensing CD coming. Loves being in front, but likes company. Another increase in trip will in all probability bring more improvement.
Value Is EverythingNative River way too short now in this ground. Will do well to place and I’ll probably lay him for that.
Native River way too short now in this ground. Will do well to place and I’ll probably lay him for that.
On what grounds, Joe?
In the Worcester Novice (Grade 2) Native River put – up to then – a career best performance on officially “good-soft”. Giving 7 lbs and beating Un Temps Pour Tout 3 3/4 lengths. However, I was there that day and it was slower than official. Check all Newbury times on the day against Racing Post standrd times. All 7 races more than 25 seconds slower than standard. Judged by today’s Chepstow times it’s faster/firmer than Newbury was on Nov 26th 2015.Value Is EverythingMark, there’s soft and there’s soft and soft like Chepstow is today is worse than heavy imo and he just cannot keep galloping in that ground with that weight. If he does he’ll be a real challenge to his stablemate in the Gold Cup
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