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To be a good bet in the National a horse must jump and stay well, have improvement in him and/or be very well handicapped. To place in a National a horse needs at least the first two of the above. tbh RR, I don’t see Dolatulo as having any of those attributes. Personally wouldn’t take 1000/1, but I’ve been wrong before.
Value Is EverythingThe ante post bets I’ve had on the Grand National in the past have been few and far between, but I couldn’t resist backing Holywell at 90’s and 85’s today. Jonjo commented that a drop in grade was in order for the horse after two disappointing efforts this season. How low can Jonjo get him by the time the weights come out? A completely different animal in the springtime and while he’s not the most fluent jumper you’ll see he’s safe enough. His form at the Aintree Festival reads a 3L second to Solwhit in the Liverpool Hurdle, a 10L winner of the Mildmay Novices Chase, and a 2.5L third in the Betfred Bowl. If he can get in here off a mark in the mid 150’s he’ll be a big player.
Not a bad shout THM. Like you say he’s a Spring horse, disregard anything he does before February. I backed Aurora’s Encore for that same reason! However, when running in top races suspect the handicapper also knows the situation and won’t drop him. Unlikely to be rated on anything other than last season’s best. That said, he’s a stayer and trip might bring out a bit more improvement and likely ground won’t be a problem. Jumping is imo the biggest negative, doesn’t fall/unseat very often but makes plenty of mistakes over conventional fences and not the best jumping technique for Aintree… But it’s all about price, if a probable runner you’ve got a good price. Has there been any sign from Jackdaw’s Castle about their Aintree target? Sometimes a price is so big because those in the know want to tempt people in.
Value Is EverythingNot sure if Dolatulo the Bechers Chase third will be taking his chances in the big one itself but at 100/1 Stan James he worth the risk. What are other’s people opinions?
To be a good bet in the National a horse must jump and stay well, have improvement in him and/or be very well handicapped. To place in a National a horse needs at least the first two of the above. tbh RR, I don’t see Dolatulo as having any of those attributes. Personally wouldn’t take 1000/1, but I’ve been wrong before.
My reasons for asking people’s opinions on Dolatulo was he earned a rating of 150 Racing Post Rating, he’s won a class 1 staying chase at Wetherby and seemed to run well here, when fresh. He has ran twice before over these fences and been well beaten.
Thanks for your replies, my number one hope is Many Clouds and I have him at 20/1 but just keeping an eye on some outsiders.
P.S. Also have Gallant Oscar at 40/1
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Very impressed with Wakanda again yesterday, and I think he’s got a few more of these in him. Surely a potential Grand National candidate at the very least, and I’ll watch future targets with interest.
Peter’s already mentioned him, but of the others who ran yesterday, well Houblon Des Obeaux cost me a fair few quid for the second time this season, and I just don’t know what to make of him. Definitely no excuses for him, though knowing the trainer I just wonder if there’s something else on the agenda for him. Part of me thinks The Welsh National, however he wouldn’t be able to take advantage of a continually slipping mark in that, and he should go down a fair few pounds for yesterday. I just wonder if he’s another with Aintree on the horizon. Not a race I ever had in mind for him, but if he does actually retain enough ability, and they’re holding a little back with him, then it’s a possibility.
That certainly seems the case with The Young Master, who also took in the race, and he looks a cracking price for The National at the moment. He’s not everybodys cup of tea, but there’s no arguing with Sam Waley-Cohens record round here, and with him inevitably slipping down another pound or 2 after that, then he’s got to be given serious consideration.
As GT said on his thread, O’Faolains Boy, is another to bear in mind. Very pleasing comeback from him during the week, and he looks ideal for this. Connections are surely going to target him for this (as well as possibly The Gold Cup), and come April, then the 40’s he’s at just now, could look very nice indeed.
It’s just been suggested on ATR, that Seabass comes into the picture after his win at Thurles in a Novice Hurdle, but I just hope they’re careful with him as he’ll be a 14yo, though he would definitely get a few sentimental quid of mine on him………..though surely The Foxhunters might be a more realistic target for him????
I’ve been chipping away at a few on Betfair at big prices, but not as much as previous seasons. I thought Our Father would turn out to be my main hope this season, but he doesn’t look like he’s in training, so looking to start firming up on a couple with a serious chance, and at this time, The Young Master @ 50’s, or O’Faolains Boy at 40’s make plenty of appeal.
Had a look at your suggestions, VTC, and quite fancy O’ Faolains Boy by Oscar so he’s breed to stay. One little niggle with him is experience as he was a novice (albeit a extremely good one) the season of 2013/2014.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Had a look at your suggestions, VTC, and quite fancy O’ Faolains Boy by Oscar so he’s breed to stay. One little niggle with him is experience as he was a novice (albeit a extremely good one) the season of 2013/2014.
I wouldn’t be too worried about O’Faolains Boy’s inexperience RR. Biggest field he’s run in over jumps is when winning the RSA. Usually if they jump well they’ve got enough experience. However, the two worries I have are whether they’ll go for the Gold Cup and forget the Grand National; and soundness. That said – at the price he is – probably worth a small speculative bet. Just had a few quid @ 74/1.
Value Is EverythingHad a look at your suggestions, VTC, and quite fancy O’ Faolains Boy by Oscar so he’s breed to stay. One little niggle with him is experience as he was a novice (albeit a extremely good one) the season of 2013/2014.
I wouldn’t be too worried about O’Faolains Boy’s inexperience RR. Biggest field he’s run in over jumps is when winning the RSA. Usually if they jump well they’ve got enough experience. However, the two worries I have are whether they’ll go for the Gold Cup and forget the Grand National; and soundness. That said – at the price he is – probably worth a small speculative bet. Just had a few quid @ 74/1.
Thanks for the tip, VTC & Ginger took 40/1 with SkyBet, I know the a risk of it not turning up, but like you say Ginger a RSA winner is useful form.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.I’m a big fan of Houblon des Obieux been following him since he was four but he doesn’t strike me as a National horse ..his jumping style worries me and I’m not sure he’ll stay four miles plus .One I’m warming to is Seventh Sky had a few bits on him over the years,ran well in the Sefton and looks like he is making up now into a nice stayer .Folk with long memories will note his colours have been carried before in a National 35 years ago ..so a reappearance is overdue !
Not heard what Kim Bailey had to say afterwards, but The Last Samuri ran very nicely yesterday, and would have to be a contender.
Honeysdad, was it Levanka (1980) in the Seventh Sky colours? I don’t have the list of colours to hand but I can see the owners have the same surname.
Not heard what Kim Bailey had to say afterwards, but The Last Samuri ran very nicely yesterday, and would have to be a contender.
Honeysdad, was it Levanka (1980) in the Seventh Sky colours? I don’t have the list of colours to hand but I can see the owners have the same surname.
Kim likes him to go for the National, but is unsure if it’s a year too soon.
For me a lack of Class 1 victories and the fact he’s not long out of novice company is a worry.You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Based on his performance today, his usual good performances in the spring, his previous experience in the grand national, and his lowering handicap mark, I believe On his Own could be a contender if entered
Well, I’ll go for Shutthefrontdoor at 25/1 (WHill), a young but experienced horse, with the connections and breeding to go. Just seen his Irish National win in 2014, not the best jumper but a good balance, and has the benefit of having completed the race as fifth this year. Official ratings are lower than at the same time last year, so maybe he gets to carry just over 10,5 stone, a year stronger, and a little lighter contested.
Maybe some of You know he is not coming again, since I haven’t seen him mentioned here?Best Wishes
SilkWex, massive fan of On His Own, but I really don’t think he’s an Aintree horse now.
Great to see Double Seven & Seabass go head to head today in a Novice Hurdle at Punchestown today.
Seabass ran another sound race, but as I’ve said before, I’m not sure a return to The National would be wise, but I’ll watch the situation with interest. Double Seven was very encouraging though, his first run since that day in The 2014 National, he was running on well at the end, & it was a promising performance, which makes the 50’s for this years race very tempting.
Golden Wonder, who would have been my #1 hope last season, makes his comeback over timber at Fairyhouse tomorrow. Injured in last years Munster National, he was a big hope for Aintree, following his close second to Shutthefrontdoor in the 2014 Irish National. If sound, I reckon he’ll be a big player in this years race, and with it being the aim before his injury last year, he’s sure to be getting targetted for it this time around. Looks on a very fair chase mark as well.
Excellent knowledge again OA and VTC ,presume the owner is the son or even grandson of Peter Heron
The veterans final tomorrow might give us a clue or two. Looks a cracking race! Soll and Benbens will need to go close for me to seriously consider them for the National. It’s a shame Tullamore Dew was never given a crack at the race in his pomp. A really honest stayer who i think would have suited Aintree to the ground.
Portrait King is the only new addition to my shortlist.
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