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If he turns up don’t rule out Peace And Co. His run last time, whilst disappointing, was significantly better than his first run of the season and whilst Henderson’s horses have been somewhat hit and miss you watch them fire at Cheltenham.
The Champion Hurdle will surely be run at a good gallop and that will help Peace And Co settle. It would be no surprise to see him coming from off that gallop and powering up the hill. He is the one horse with the potential still as we still haven’t seen him reach the ceiling of his ability.
20/1 is a fantastic price.
Couldn’t agree more IBR, things haven’t quite worked out for PEACE & CO of
late, but I doubt he has become a bad horse. When you look back to last year,
his wins in the Triumph Hurdle trial and then the Triumph Hurdle make him look
tailor made for this, especially with Faugheen absent.Nicky has had a few bad patches with his horses, but I wouldn’t mind putting
a few quid on him having them spot on come The Festival.20/1 NRNB with Paddy Power and Stan James looks too good to turn down, I’m in
with both feet.Henderson also has Hargam and Top Notch, both of whom whilst decent, are clearly inferior to Peace And Co ability wise. It would be no surprise to me to see one of them, probably Top Notch, become a sacrificial lamb to aid Peace And Co’s chances. Send Top Notch (who won’t win anyway) to the front to ensure one hell of a gallop, get Peace And Co to settle and you set the race up perfectly.
That sounds like a plan IBR
Gone a little crazy and backed 5 in this but a great ew race.
Faugheen 6/4 10 pts win. price boost
Peace and co 14/1 1pt ew price boost
Nicholls canyon 20/1 2pts ew
My tent or yours 33/1 0.5pt ew
the new one 25/1 0.75pts ew (regret this one a little)
Hoping for the win and at least 1 place.
Can see the field cutting down to 7. And these odds with the 3 places could be value.Already 10 pts down. God form bid if nicholls canyon dosent make it. Backed annie at 5/2 nrnb after hearing the AF news. Although really hope it dosent run in the champion. Would seem a likely runner now though
This race is getting more interesting by the minute.
My 33/1 Hargam e/w 4 places is looking more and more interesting.
I reckon only about ten will turn up now!!I can see The New One grinding this out and make it third time lucky, there’s no stand out horse now so has as good a chance as any on form. It would be a tough choice for STD between him and Old Guard, though…
This race is getting more interesting by the minute.
My 33/1 Hargam e/w 4 places is looking more and more interesting.
I reckon only about ten will turn up now!!More likely 15 IMO. If I owned that Aristo du Plessis or whatever, I would definitely run him (dunno if he’s still entered even?).
I wouldn’t back anything under 16/1 in this. The difference in class between the favs and ‘outsiders’ is only a few lbs at most IMO.
Henderson will end up with half the runners. I still have a faint hope that P&C will somehow find his form but have just taken some 33s about Sempre Medici, who beat Identity Thief last year and looks to be an improver who’ll like better ground. The fact that Ruby won’t choose him probably has a disproportionate effect on his price: he’s not far off the top rated and shouldn’t be that big.
Has Willie Mullins broken a mirror whilst walking under a ladder?
Arctic Fire joins Faugheen on the sick list. He has a chip on a
sesamoid bone and is out for the season
I am surprised to see myself looking at The New One for this race.
He was much touted last year and his “devastating turn of foot” was mentioned on numerous occasions, and rebutted at least as many times.
Looking at The New One this season, it has been pretty much the same old unimpressive wins at short odds as it was last year. Last year he was 10/3 second favourite for the race, as he was considered an each-way lock by many punters. However, he only managed 5th place in the end.
This year sees The New One at 7/1 for the race and I have talked myself into an each-way bet at those odds. There may be hoots of derision from the sidelines but let’s look more closely at the situation.
All four horses who finished in front of the New One last year are now out of the race for varying reasons and the horses in front of The New One in this year’s betting look poor value to me.
Looking at the New One’s form, he got a hell of a lot closer to Faugheen than Nichols Canyon did and his win from Rayvin Black looks slightly better after the Kingwell, albeit that Irving stank that day.
I have my doubts about Identity Thief’s form and Nichols Canyon was poor last time. Annie Power is ridiculous in price in my view. My Tent Or Yours looks mightily skinny in the betting and I will leave him to those who have the faith that they “always come back”
The New One seems roughly what he was and it has to be said that he has been prolific. No Hurricane Fly but The New One has won 16 of his 23 races and been placed 5 times. A 5th in The Champion Hurdle and a 6th in the Champion Bumper are the only times he hasn’t made the frame. Interestingly, in the Champion Bumper he had Jezki and Many Clouds right behind him.
I’ll take a chance and back a “Ham Shanker” at 7/1 each-way in a race where quality is probably thinner than thought.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You’re a brave man, Steve. I loved the horse as a novice, but Twister has consistently made a balls of him, especially running in atrocious ground when he’s been ailing. After claiming a kissing spine find at the end of the season to explain the horse’s obvious discomfort in races, he then said he’d been unable to train the horse for last year’s CH because of his feet (the horse’s not Twister’s). Apparently he did no galloping and his whole build-up was swimming. BTW, not a mention of this prior to last year’s festival – the man is mad.
I’d like to see what a sound and happy TNO could do, but, after appearing to be happy, fluent and comparatively athletic on his seasonal debut, he has looked again like a horse with physical issues. The worst thing that happened for his career was being behind Our Conor whne that horse fell fatally. Since then Twister has been a man on a mission to prove he was robbed that day (reality being that this was far from the case).
Can’t see MTOY being any more valiant in a fight than he was before his layoff. P&C needs a Binocular-type miracle (and I wouldn’t discount that). Annie Power seems very short. Nichols Canyon was amiss last time according to Mullins, and I think he’s a good horse, but this is likely to go to something unexposed now imo – maybe Identity Thief or Sempre Medici.
Good luck, though…you’ll need it!
With last years winner Faugheen now out due to injury it was good to see a few on-line bookmakers refunding bets on the horse, the market is now really hotting up now we know that some have this preference on their calendar. The mare ‘Annie Power‘ will take her chance here and after she notched up her second seasonal win when landing the Mares Hurdle at Punchestown a couple of weeks ago, the connections and trainer Willie Mullins have given her a crack at this. I am not going to look into her bookie saving fall in last years Mares Hurdle as her only defeat, even though on paper it goes down as one, my opinion she has only lost once when beaten by More or That in the World Hurdle.
Many will have her in multiples again, will she be vulnerable over two miles her record is 4-4 over the index if we do not include her three wins around the bumper sphere. her Cheltenham form shows 12F and only Ruby will know what happened last year when she came to grief when a street ahead in the Mares Hurdle to come down at the last. Recently Ruby has had a torrid time of it falling at the last when having the race in the bag, is he human after all. The thing is can we take her on what should be quick ground which she has raced on twice and is 1-2, I actually feel she is far too short at 2/1 for this and there have been more interesting market moves for the likes of ‘Identity Thief‘ who I got at 16s back in New Year. He is currently trading at second favourite for this race at 9/2, he had to deal with his first defeat this season when beaten by Nicholas Canyon in the Grade 1 Ryanair Hurdle at Punchestown before the turn of the new year going behind by two lengths. He ran the 2/5f that day all the way to the line on bottomless ground which did not really play to his strengths.
If getting quicker ground on the day the son of Kayf Tara could definitely have a say in this. Already a Grade 1 winner this season when taking the Fighting Fifth by a neck when beating Top Notch Tonto, he made a few errors that day when his jumping let him down, if he gets it right on the day I would like to see Davy Russell ride him over Bryan Cooper, but I doubt that will happen. Since the word has been put out that ‘MY TENT OR YOURS‘ will make his long awaited return after a year off has moved the market significantly and has been backed from 25s into 6s. He has finished runner up on both occasions at the festival in the Supreme and finished behind Jezki in 2014 renewal of this race just failing after rallying in the closing stages. The question is how fit have Seven Barrows got him to come into such a prestigeous race after a long lay off, if he is back to his best he can go close and pull one of the best training performances for years to come.
‘The New One‘ i just cannot have in this race, it is getting a bit long in the tooth now with coming into his fifth festival his form is not as good as it reads. The double Neptune festival winner has been beaten in this race twice behind the likes of Jezki and last years Faugheen and I realy can’t see it getting any better. 16/1 into 6/1 probably flatters the horse really and I know there will be TNO society’s out there or the one’s that have change their usenames on forums to the horse swearing blind this is his year, sorry but stay off the caffeine.
After defeating Identity Thief in the Ryanair ‘Nicholas Canyon‘ was well put in his place by Faugheen in the Irish equivalent to twenty eight lengths, with no Faugheen to worry about this time around and with also Artic Fire out of the festival you would to thnk really he is a safe each way option for this race. His still fairly new to Cheltenham with a good third last year behind Windsor Park in the Neptune and the drop back to two mile has seemed to of sharpen him up, can he win a race of this magnitude, we can never say never and is just one of a strong hand Mullin’s has coming into the race who still has an entry in the World Hurdle, now there would be a surprising angle.
MY TENT OR YOURS : 2pts Each Way @ 8/1 (PaddyPower)
Darren P Goodbody
Good write up.
Personally, not going anywhere near MTOY. If I was on @ 25’s or he was available at a big price then I would perhaps be tempted, but 8/1 about a horse who hasn’t been seen for a year and has lost twice when favourite at his (assumely) absolute peak is not for me.
The New One @ 8/1 will do.
IMO you’ve totally missed the boat on MTOY if you’re backing at 8/1. He’s been off the track for 2 years ffs.
The way I am approaching The New One is by looking at the rest of the field and trying to pick three horses who would be confident picks to finish ahead of him on the day.
The obvious starting point is those ahead of him in the betting.
Annie Power has always been considered a potential Champion Hurdler by some people but my overall view on that is that she would have run in it by now had that definitely been the case. She is only in the picture because of injuries to stable mates and although a winner of 13 of her 15 races, she was odds on, often grossly so, in eleven of her 13 successes. Annie Power’s rise up the ratings has come from beating horses, eg Zarkandar in races of two and a half miles. She has actually only run once at 2 miles in her last nine starts and although she won that day, she was 1/6 favourite.
If anyone has a race over two miles which shows Annie Power warrants being 2/1 favourite for the Champion Hurdle, I would love to read about it.
Next we have Nicholls Canyon, who seemed well below par last time. He took away Faugheen’s unbeaten record but the reigning champ was as fat as a whale that day and bounced back when beating The New One and then dismantling his field, putting the usurper Nichols Canyon well behind him, proving the dethroning was very much temporary. I followed Nichols Canyon last year after he won when the ill fated and much more fancied Allez Colombieres was fatally injured after jumping just two flights. I had Nichols Canyon at the Festival last year ante-post and was disappointed he was only third. I got my money back with him in good style at Aintree but I am not sure he was at his best when beating Identity Thief and his run against Faugheen was very tame indeed. At his best he has a big chance here but his last run is a big worry
If there is an overrated horse in this race I feel it is Identity Thief. The Fighting Fifth he won was one of the poorest I can recall and the form looks decidedly whiffy, with just a Kelso win for a well odds on Top Notch to report. Identity Thief went up a stone for that win to 158, which leaves more required as it is and I am sure he is overrated. He did go on to give Nichols Canyon a race when that horse was hot favourite but I felt the Mullins horse was below his best that day and toughed out to win, he was certainly off colour looking behind Faugheen next time. Identity Thief seems more hype than substance to me and at a general 9/2 any value has long dissipated. I would have Nichols Canyon every time at generally slightly bigger odds and a thick match bet if 5/4 is available against Identity Thief.
Not sure how the idea of backing The New One can be pooh-poohed and then a horse who hasn’t run for what will be 703 days from the Champion Hurdle date is put up as a better bet. My Tent Or Yours looks a ridiculous price with Ladbrokes at 5/1 and if The New One backers need to lay off the caffeine, I would recommend that those coming to the My Tent Or Yours bandwagon late on should have woken up and smelled the coffee earlier. There is no doubt My Tent Or Yours is a talented horse and he retains a high rating, but when you are not running the chance for your rating to drop isn’t there and you are taking it on trust that he’s the same horse. A piece of work with Hargam is not enough to convince me of what will pan out in the race. Two years on we have to remember that when My Tent Or Yours ran at the Festival, he looked all over the winner but was repelled b Champagne Fever as a novice and then looked likely to win the Champion Hurdle before Jezki showed more determination in The New One’s allegedly unlucky year. There isn’t a lot between The New One and My Tent Or Yours from the race dubbed as the battle of the bottlers and while The New One’s rating has decreased he surely has recent race experience and a decent, if not stellar level of form.
I know Raymo fancies Hargam at a big price but he’s been a disappointment to me. He landed my each-way faith at 10/1 in the Triumph last year but for me he hasn’t progressed. The biggest disappointment for me was when I had him early doors at Aintree and he went right in to 4/6 only to finish 6th. He doesn’t have much to find with The New One on their run behind Faugheen but I believe The New One came forward from that when beating Rayvin Black next time. The New One gave Rayvin Black 8lbs that day and the ground was heavy, so it was at least an indicator that The New One is in the ball park of his 161 rating.
Does My Tent Or Yours retain his 168 rating? Can You trust Identity Thief on 158 and that he’ll improve beyond that? Annie Power is rated 162 and gets weight but she has not proven that 2 miles and this competitive company will see her run to that and perhaps prove better as her fans and the betting seem to indicate.
All in all I will be disappointed if The New One can’t be in the 1-2-3 here. He’s more than double the odds he was last year and has much the same profile and question marks coming in. The first four from last year are gone and there are plenty question marks on the others he is facing this year.
Which horse can you really be confident about and are the odds any better value all things considered?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nigel Twiston-Davies had this to say regarding The New One in today’s Racing Post:-
“This time last year we were really struggling with him, He was in a swimming pool, lame, and after all that he was beaten only eight lengths. He’s a lot better this year and we think he’s got a very good chance, even if nobody else seems to.”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hi Stevecaution,
I’d been thinking along the lines of your previous post and am a big The New One fan. I read NTD’s comments and i’m surprised by them. It was reported in the Racing Post of 26 February 2015 that NTD said “He is 100 per cent. It is a bit nerve-wracking – we have got one week and five days before the race, I would like it to be tomorrow”. The comments reported today are a direct contradiction to what was said last year
I know it was reported that he had spinal complaint after the race but nothing reported prior to the race. If he could recapture the form of a year ago I think he would have a big chance. I just take NTD comments with a pinch of salt. Twister is, as the old saying goes, either a knave or a fool with this horse. As seeyouthen reports above, there was no thought for punters last year when he did not report until well after the race that the horse was having serious foot problems – so serious that he had to do ‘all his prep work in the pool’ for the Champion Hurdle.
And it seems these problems have not gone away. After his defeat in the Christmas Hurdle recently Twister said this: “He’s come out of the race 100 per cent fine,” said trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies. “He’d had five weeks off with a foot problem, so I’m expecting him to come on a heck of a lot for it. I think he ran as well as could have been expected, actually, in the circumstances.’
So the foot problem returned. He’s had a kissing spine, sore feet and a crazy trainer. He still jumps markedly to the right and struggles when the pressure is on. He is feeling something in his races, and I feel sorry for the horse because he is ultra game. On the face of it SteveC makes a very fair claim that the horse would be a solid EW bet as things stand, but too much has gone wrong for him in the past. He reportedly hates heavy ground, but there is already ‘good’ in the Cheltenham ground. They’ll water, but it’ll still be much faster than any horse with bad feet will want. I hope Twister doesn’t break the horse down completely.
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