Grand National Trial 2016

Normally a tricky race to work out, as it usually takes place a few days before the weights are framed for Aintree, which understandably, led to a few Aintree contenders maybe not showing their true colours. This year the weights will already be out, so no reason to hold back for those with the big one in mind.

A good race for me the last few years, including Lie Forrit last year, free from an entry for Aintree, giving me one of my biggest wins of the year. However, this time around, looking to 2 horses with National entries to give me a repeat success this year.

First one up is Broadway Buffalo, from the Pipe yard. Not seen since a very decent performance behind Thousand Stars in The G1 Grand Prix d’Automne at Auteil, and he wasn’t beaten far. Before that he was just finishing out of the frame in The Scottish National, off the back of an excellent second in The 4 Miler at Cheltenham, finding only Cause of Causes too good. He was actually favourite for this last year, needing a good run to qualify for Aintree, but he fell down the back straight when travelling nicely. I fancy him strongly to make amends here, and he looks weighted to do so, at a track he’s won at twice before, taking the 20’s EW last night. Pipe also has Vieux Lion Rouge entered, and he’s also easy to make a case for. Won 3 on the bounce, before falling when looking held at Cheltenham, behind the runaway winner Aachen. He would have made the frame though, and no shame in being held that day by Aachen, who ran the race of his life. This’ll be hard going on Saturday, and he did show battling qualities to win round here in a competitive handicap in November.

Cause of Causes, who got the better of Broadway Buffalo at Cheltenham in The 4 Miler, also holds an entry here, and I’m hoping he doesn’t trap, as if he’s tuned up for this, then he’d be a serious player. He’s easily the best horse in the race, yet comes here off of 142, and I’d just be a bit surprised to see them blow his mark for one of The Cheltenham Handicaps, where something like The Kim Muir would be ideal for him. I’ve bet him for the The National, and I’m hoping for a Cheltenham/Aintree double from him, Haydock was never part of the plan. If he did head here, I’d certainly have a few quid on, as I very rarely miss him, but I wouldn’t expect to see him 100% for it, with The Festival looming. Back in 5th that day at Cheltenham was Sego Success. I bet him for The Classic Chase at Warwick, but I knew my fate early on, when he departed at the second. He won very impressively at Doncaster before that though, and I’m a big fan of him. I do think though, that the better ground at Ayr for The Scottish National, will be better for him, and with this potentially being a slog, it might not be for him. Reluctantly overlooked.

I’d being saying for a while on here that Cloudy Too was looking a very well handicapped horse, and I bet him a couple of times with no joy. Although I expected him to go close in The Rowland Meyrick, it was here, in The Peter Marsh last month, that he got my cash back, and he won in a fair bit of style, with some decent horses strung out behind him. Looks a danger once again, but it just may be that the 10lb rise will stop him. He did have his fair share of fortune that day, but looks solid place material at 14’s

This brings me to another big fancy, Gas Line Boy, who was absolutely cantering. He had them all at work, but unfortunately he unseated at the last down the back straight. If I’m being honest, I don’t think Cloudy Too would have got to him, he really did look full of running, and with similar conditions awaiting him, he looks sure to go close.

Rigadin De Beauchene was another big winner for me in this 2 years back, and he finally got back to winning ways round here in December. Conditions should suit him here again, and the 14’s does look big. Not unduly raised for his that win here, and he was still running a big race in The Classic Chase when he was knocked over by a loose horse. Very, very unlucky, and I’m currently trying to stop myself from betting him. I wouldn’t be nearly as keen on his stablemate Saroque, who went out like a light last time, and might be feeling the effects of his run in The Welsh National, behind Mountainous.

Mountainous, considering the conditions, was a very impressive winner at Chepstow, registering his first win in 2 years. Raised 10 lbs for that, he’d still be worthy of consideration, as he just loves the mud, and the trainer, Kerry Lee, seems to have the midas touch recently. He will though, come here off of 142, and was well beaten in this off 137 last year. His stablemate Russe Blanc looks Eider bound, but Lee has another entered in Bishops Road. On paper, he doesn’t look nearly good enough for this, and is arguably a bit high in the weights, but he did show the qualities required when winning at Sandown in December, and is highly rated by his trainer. The main concern for me would be the trip for him, but no surprise to see him maybe spring a shock for a trainer who can do no wrong at the moment. He just won’t be doing it with my money on him.

Unioniste and Woodford County present the Nicholls and Hobbs yards respectively. Unioniste is, as I’ve said a few times, hard to second guess, but after a few lifeless displays, looked a lot more like it last time at Sandown. He looks Aintree bound for sure, for which he’s quietly fancied to atone for last years early exit, and worth noting that connections chose this race as the prep for Neptune Collonges, where he went very very close. He looks on a cracking mark, and the 16’s with Paddy Power looks massive. Woodford County ran a smashing race behind Mounatinous at Chepstow, and a slog like this is just his cup of tea, but I’m just of the opinion he’s just outside of this class, though should give supporters a decent run for their money.

This looks beyong the Rebecca Curtis trained Minella On Line, and his stablemate Bob Ford has really struggled of late, so they’ll have to be overlooked for now.

Last years winning trainer, Lucinda Russell, is represented by One For Arthur, and in a race she’s won 3 of the last 6 runnings of, then despite him looking up against it, I’m in no rush to dimsiss him out of hand either.

Joining him from north of the border, is the Sandy Thomson trained Harry The Viking. Runner up in this last year, going agonisingly close in the process, he continues to run well without getting his head in front. He does love it round here though, and at 25’s, he could just surprise a few. Looks bound to run his race.

Both the Donald McCain & Jonjo O’Neil yards have had a season to forget so far, though there have been signs of a recovery lately. McCain is represented by Corrin Wood, a horse who promised so much but delivered so little, and I’d really like to see him come down a few more pounds. Looked as if he might get involved here over hurdles last time, but eventually fell away, he’s got plenty of questions to answer. Jonjo, to be fair, never sets the heather alight during the winter months anyway, but I just got the impression things were worse than ever this year. He’s possibly on the turn though, and after a couple of wins, particularly Taquin De Seuils impressive comeback on Saturday, then Spookydooky, who ran well here in December, might just be worth a second look at 16’s.

Way behind Spookydooky at Haydock that was Sun Cloud, and I’m struggling to see him making the frame this time either. Has a few performances that entitle him to take his chance here, but on balance, I’d have to overlook him.

Looks like a proper slog ahead, and whoever lands it will have had to dig deep. I’m happy with my 25’s & 14’s on Gas Line Boy, and my 20’s on Broadway Buffalo, as I think they both have sound each way chances. From a 20 strong entry, 2 is more than enough, but I’ve just had to have a go on Unioniste at 16’s as well, as he looks too well treated off the back of a return to form.

Main fancy – Broadway Buffalo 20’s
Second Choice – Cloudy Too 14’s

I’ve bet them both each way

I’ll leave Cause of Causes, as if he wins, I’ll have a live one for Aintree. I’m hoping Gordon Elliot gives me a clue to his plans, as he’s about to be interviewed on ATR, and I’ll leave Rigadin, as he owes me absolutely nothing.

GL