Betfair Chase 2016

stilvi wrote:

Nathan Hughes wrote:

Yeah good story Botchy1. I backed Cue Card in the King George when he virtually stopped when well clear but backed Vautour last year when Cue Card came and collared him. A shame Vautour is no longer with us as the Gold Cup is shaping up well and he would of been a strong contender with his love for the course. In a way I hope Cue Card does not win the KG because I want to see Thistlecrack line up at Cheltenham and you don’t know how that 1 million bonus will affect the thinking.

Surprised this is still doing the rounds. Do you really believe that if Cue Card wins the King George and let’s say Thistlecrack is unbeaten in four that they will suddenly re-route Thistlecrack? It just isn’t going to happen. The two sets of owners will both want to win a Gold Cup. Who knows this might be Thistlecrack’s only chance to win a Gold Cup

I really hope not but then again I couldn’t see Vautour not running in last years Gold Cup. Thistlecrack could win the next two make one or two small mistakes and you’d still get some on here saying he should be re-routed and if Cue Card wins the KG they would be outside Tizzard’s house with placards. Would hope the owner and trainer are strong enough but no it wouldn’t surprise me.

Some are worried he will get injured
but he could get injured in any other race, nearly got injured the last race because he was travelling too slow and stood off one a mile back. I think the pace of a Gold Cup would suit his running and jumping.

Whether a horse should hit the front sooner depends on the pace of the race. Fastest way to get from start to finish is by going an even pace. If early fractions are too strong then the jockey is best advised not to hit the front until later than he would if early fractions were slow. Hitting the front “too soon” where the pace has been too strong results in the horse running the last part of the race far slower than optimum… ie The pace has been To the advantage of those held up who haven’t over-exerted themselves in the early stages.

“In 4 of his last 5 wins” Cue Card could lead earlier because of the pace. The exception eing in the King George. Silviniaco Conti took them along at a strong pace and then Vautour continued it. Pace strong but not too strong. Had Brennan quickened the pace 3 or 4 out at Kempton – taking on front runner Vautour who was still going well – the pair may well have been too tired in the straight… Risking setting it up for a closer.

Just to complicate things:
Sometimes setting a slightly overly strong pace can pay off if the horse has superior stamina to its rivals. eg Coneygree in the 2015 Gold Cup – which is probably why connections criticised Johnson on Saturday. ie Despite setting a strong pace it was not “too” strong. However, imo to do that type of thing with a horse out for over a year is asking for trouble (would’ve taken a considerale amount of time to recover, perhaps never recovering). Coneygree weakening late at Haydock shows connections are barking up the wrong fence anyway.

Something that often gives away a pace that’s been too strong is when prominent racers fall back through the field and hold up horses come to the fore. Cue Card raced with Wakanda, Dynaste and Virak (prominently) at Wetherby. Those three finished in the last three places. So Cue Card in finishing 3rd – not beaten far – probably ran better than finishing position suggests. However, imo pace doesn’t fully justify how below form Cue Card was. imo combination of pace and fitness, Zammer.

I’d taken some 66 about Thistlecrack for the Million – shame they didn’t run him